By Mathieu Dion
(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government faces a decisive moment on Monday when the House of Commons votes on a proposed budget that would increase borrowing to spend on the military and infrastructure.
The budget must pass to avoid triggering a new election. Carney’s Liberal Party caucus holds 170 seats, two short of a majority, and as of Sunday morning it wasn’t clear how all the opposition members would vote.
Elizabeth May, the Green Party’s only elected lawmaker, told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. that “right now, I’m a no” on the budget. But she left the door open to changing her mind.
“I’m in a dilemma, obviously, and I’m still talking to ministers and representatives from the prime minister’s office and others to see what could we do before tomorrow afternoon to affect my vote,” she said Sunday.
The fiscal plan, unveiled on Nov. 4, foresees $167.3 billion in additional deficits over a five-year period compared with earlier government forecasts. Carney’s administration has earmarked major spending increases for defense, housing and new projects such as port expansions to help the country diversify its export markets away from the US.
If the government can’t find two opposition votes to support the budget, it would still be able to survive as long as at least four opposition members abstain. The left-leaning New Democratic Party, which has seven seats, is in the middle of a leadership contest and has a large debt burden. Its bloc of lawmakers is seen by many political observers as most likely to help the government on Monday.
“No, I’m not worried. I think there are all kinds of good reasons why different members or opposition parties want the budget to be passed,” cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc told Radio-Canada.
Carney’s Liberals won the popular vote and the most seats in an April election in which the major issues were U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his aggressive posture toward Canada. But most current polls put the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party very close.
“One hundred percent of our members of Parliament oppose the costly Carney credit card budget that is going to drive up the cost of food, housing and living for Canadians,” Poilievre said Friday.
Canada hasn’t had two elections in the space of 12 months since 1979 and 1980. In that case, the second election occurred because of a failed budget vote.
Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne on Friday called on opposition members to support his document, given the fragile state of the economy: “It’s not a time for political games, it’s not the time for posturing, this is time to fight for Canada, fight together, meet the moment, elevate yourself above politics.”
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Last modified: November 16, 2025