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China’s house prices have declined by the most in a year, while industrial production and investment figures both missed expectations, underlining pressure on policymakers to maintain growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
New home prices fell 0.45 per cent in October from the previous month, the most since October last year and greater than a 0.4 per cent decline in September, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday.
Industrial production rose 4.9 per cent from a year earlier, trailing a forecast of 5.5 per cent in an analyst poll by Reuters and the 6.5 per cent growth in September. Retail sales in October expanded 2.9 per cent, better than expectations of 2.8 per cent in the Reuters poll but down from 3 per cent the previous month. Both were the weakest readings since August 2024.
Fixed asset investment, meanwhile, continued to fall, recording a 1.7 per cent decline year to date on a year earlier year, worse than forecasts of a 0.8 per cent drop and a 0.5 per cent contraction to September.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that while the overall economy was operating “relatively smoothly”, with progress in developing new industries, there were “many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment”.
“There is significant pressure to adjust domestic economic structure, which pose several challenges to maintaining stable economic operation,” Fu said.
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China is grappling with what economists call a “two-speed” economy, with trade and exports broadly holding up growth despite US President Donald Trump’s trade war, while the domestic economy suffers from weak demand and a prolonged bout of deflation.
Authorities announced a pivot to bolstering domestic demand more than a year ago, which has included easing monetary policy, issuing stimulus bonds and unveiling programmes to support households.
But those efforts have yet to significantly revitalise consumption, which has been hit by a years-long slowdown in the real estate market that has weighing on household spending and consumer confidence.
The NBS said the year-to-date decline in property development investment had deepened from 13.9 per cent to 14.7 year on year by the end of October.
“Today’s data signals the ongoing weakness in housing investment and developer sentiment,” Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at the Conference Board said in a new report. “The second-hand market, in particular, reflects structural oversupply and weak consumer confidence.”
He said China had modest and uneven growth in fixed-asset investment in manufacturing, led by autos and transport equipment.
“We will continue to see policy-directed investment in infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and industrial upgrading,” Zhang said.
Additional contributions by Wenjie Ding in Beijing. Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong