“That underscores how large the pool of potential first-time buyers is as life stages line up with housing needs,” Kushi said.
She pointed to First American research indicating that Millennials alone are projected to add about 10.6 million owner households over the next 25 years, with Gen Z following behind.
“Even if mortgage rates stay in the low-6% range, weddings and separations, growing families, job moves, caregiving, and downsizing will continue to drive sales activity. Transactions grind higher as 2026 unfolds because life, and life events, keep happening,” Kushi said.
Inventory trends and regional divides
Inventory has shown signs of recovery, with active listings up 13% year-over-year in October 2025. However, the market remains far from “normal”—existing-home sales averaged about 4 million annualized in 2025, still well below the pre-pandemic five-year average of 5.4 million.
“Supply conditions still differ by region,” Kushi said. “The Midwest and Northeast tend to be scarcest on both resale and new-home inventory, which supports quicker time to contract and fewer concessions heading into 2026.”