Existing home sales in the United States eased by 0.2% from the previous month to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4 million in August of 2025, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. Sales for the period proved to be lower than the average for the year, while housing inventory fell 1.3% from the previous month to 1.53 million units, equivalent to 4.6 months of supply. At the same time, the median existing-home price rose by 2% annually. September home sales will be released on October 23.
Brian Peardon (pictured, top right), private wealth advisor at BridgePort Financial Solutions, says his “base case” is a gradual Federal Reserve rate easing over the next year, with the caveat that mortgage rates probably likely will not plummet. In his view, it’s likely that 30 year fixed mortgage rates will shift slightly from their current perch around 6.5% today, down toward perhaps the low-6% to mid-5% range, depending on inflation and global risk, than a dramatic collapse.
“If inflation remains sticky, the Fed may pause cuts, pushing mortgage rates higher again. Rate cuts may provide breathing room, but they won’t bring back housing demand unless they’re substantial, combined with strengthening income growth,” Peardon said.
Elsewhere, John Bish, investment executive at Stifel Independent Advisors, expects the 10-year note to remain above 4% despite cuts in the Fed funds rate due to sticky inflationary pressures. As a result, he sees the impact of a fed funds cut on mortgage rates to be muted and a continuation of the slow housing market through the rest of 2025 into the new year.
“Nationwide home prices did not meaningfully increase in the last 12 months, and many markets are beginning to see a notable percentage of home sellers offer price cuts. Additionally, homes in many markets are spending more time on the market with inventory continuing to climb,” Bish said.