World Cup Run-Up: Haaland going supernova, USMNT finding groove

Our monthly World Cup lookahead examines the big talking points relating to next summer’s tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Who’s trending up or down, what’s up with the co-hosts, and how is the 48-team event shaping up? T-minus eight months, the countdown continues.

Opening whistle: You need a No. 9 💪

For the most part, the nations viewed as true World Cup contenders right now all have one thing that elevates them from the chasing pack of good, but not quite great, sides: a stud goalscorer.

The more arbitrary nature of international soccer – less training time, less structure, and less cohesion than the club game – lends itself to more randomness. These matches, and tournaments, can be decided by singular moments from great players, and having a dominant forward who can turn half-chances into goals goes a very long way to papering over any other cracks that might exist in the foundation. France, on top of its obscene collection of attacking riches, can turn to Kylian Mbappe to make magic out of thin air. Reigning champion Argentina has Julian Alvarez, who’s firing on all cylinders for Atletico Madrid. England can always rely on Harry Kane, one of the sport’s most unflinching sources of goals.

Spain is the obvious outlier, with unorthodox auxiliary forward Mikel Merino continuing to prove that just about anyone can score for the Spaniards when surrounded by so much talent everywhere else on the pitch.

But, La Roja aside, a proven threat up front is an obvious differentiator.

Just about everybody else has some kind of question mark in this area. Cristiano Ronaldo is obviously an icon and still breaking records, but he’ll be 41 by the time the World Cup rolls around. German hopes are high for Nick Woltemade, but he’s still very raw. Belgium badly needs Romelu Lukaku to return from injury. The Netherlands started Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay in its last two matches. Brazil has about 100 different combinations it can use up front, but all of the Selecao’s very best attackers are wide forwards. O.G. Ronaldo ain’t walking through that door.

All of that brings us to Erling Haaland.

Norway is all but assured of reaching its first World Cup since 1998, and in Haaland the team possesses the ultimate game-breaker. He has 21 goals in 12 games for club and country this season. Scoring is the hardest thing to do in soccer, and he makes it look frighteningly easy. Hell, he missed two penalties in this month’s win over Israel and still scored a hat-trick in the match. I have some questions about the Norwegian backline against elite opposition, but a scoring machine up front like Haaland can make a lot of those concerns simply disappear.

Norway is capable of beating anyone next summer.

North American notebook 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

What’s the latest with the three co-hosts?

Mauricio Pochettino, at long last, made some important breakthroughs during the October window. Getting positive results against quality opposition was a nice bonus, but, ultimately, the learnings from recent friendlies are far more beneficial than the scorelines, something the coach himself has maintained during his tenure. Using three center-backs looks like the best way forward after plenty of formation tinkering, and the eventual return of wing-back Antonee Robinson should only enhance that system. Cristian Roldan is playing himself into a starting midfield role, and Haji Wright is making a strong case to be the starting No. 9 after a brace in the comeback win over Australia. Finally, a stress-free window. Right? Well …

For all the positives from the USMNT’s two recent matches, Pochettino didn’t really get the chance to see how his team functions with its best player. Christian Pulisic arrived in camp with an ankle issue, played only 17 minutes against Ecuador, and then sustained a low-grade hamstring tear in the first half versus Australia. If he’s unavailable for the November friendlies against Paraguay and Uruguay, it’ll be yet another lost opportunity – one of the final ones – to see a full-strength XI ahead of the real thing next summer.

Canada’s mini winning streak came to an end this month, but there were still some positives to take away for Jesse Marsch after a hard-fought 1-0 loss to Australia and goalless draw against Colombia. Midfielder Ismael Kone is back on the upswing, for starters. Playing regularly in Serie A with Sassuolo, the talented 23-year-old continues to be a wild card for Canada. If he’s on point, the team’s ceiling rises significantly. No other midfielder in the squad can match his unique combination of ball-carrying poise, box-to-box athleticism, and creativity around the penalty area. Canada, simply put, needs Kone at his best to make real noise next summer. After a period where it looked like he might not hit those heights, this was a good step back in the right direction.

Marsch’s biggest question mark right now, aside from figuring out who the best partner is up front for Jonathan David, is in defense. Moise Bombito is out for the foreseeable future after breaking his leg, and even though he’s scheduled to return before the World Cup, it’s impossible to predict what kind of fitness or form he’ll bring to the tournament – assuming he makes it. Alistair Johnston and superstar Alphonso Davies continue to recoup from serious injuries, and while there are solid backups at Marsch’s disposal, he’s running out of time to get his entire first-choice backline on the pitch together before the World Cup kicks off in June.

Javier Aguirre has a big decision to make between the sticks. Having a shaky goalkeeper is a surefire way to unsettle your entire team and undermine any good work elsewhere on the pitch. Many otherwise solid teams have seen their chances of making memorable World Cup runs go up in flames because of brutal errors by their netminders. Aguirre has entrusted Luis Angel Malagon with the No. 1 job since returning to the helm of the squad, but the Club America shot-stopper had a horrific game in the 4-0 shellacking against Colombia, throwing into question whether he should be in goal when El Tri open the tournament June 11 at the Estadio Azteca.

“We’ve tested several young goalkeepers (at the position), Aguirre said recently. “Just because Malagon and (Raul Rangel) have been regulars doesn’t mean they’re untouchable. Everyone makes mistakes, and the competition remains open.” Open enough for 40-year-old icon Memo Ochoa, who now plays in Cyprus, to swoop in, grab the gloves and appear in his sixth World Cup? What a twist that would be.

Rising and falling 📈📉

Which teams, players, and coaches have been trending up or down?

📈 Playoff chaos: Get ready for fireworks in Africa. Perennial powers Cameroon and Nigeria both failed to secure automatic World Cup spots. The Indomitable Lions were beaten out by tiny island nation Cape Verde (!!) in a qualifying stunner, while the Super Eagles could only finish second in their group behind South Africa. Their hopes now hinge on a series of playoffs, where they’ve been drawn against DR Congo and Gabon, respectively. The eventual winner of next month’s mini four-team tournament will then represent Africa in the larger inter-confederation playoffs in March. Yes, this is all very convoluted. Thanks, FIFA. When all is said and done, one of the Africa’s most storied teams – maybe both! – will be watching from home. Look for Victor Osimhen, who scored a hat-trick in the 4-0 win that got Nigeria to the playoffs to begin with, to be the difference maker.

📉 Swedish delight: Sweden’s qualification campaign has been a disaster. Its two star strikers, Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, are among the most valuable players in the world, but haven’t scored a single goal in qualifying thus far. The Swedes fired their coach, just lost to Kosovo, and have one point from four games, good enough for last place in their group. Automatic qualification is no longer possible, meaning Sweden’s only hope is a potential playoff spot – and even that’s not a guarantee – to avoid being one of the featured nations on every “best team to miss the World Cup” list.

📈 Deschamps’ evolution: France coach Didier Deschamps has heard all the criticisms. Dubbed a “water carrier” during his career, the ex-midfielder has come under almost constant fire for his conservative managerial style that mirrors that of his playing days. The 56-year-old, who’s lifted the World Cup as both a player and manager, has vowed to “adapt” to his existing squad, which is probably the most skillful in the world. Deschamps is wary of becoming an “old fool,” which means the days of playing a defensive midfielder like Blaise Matuidi on the left wing are probably over for good. (That worked in 2018, for what it’s worth). Let’s see if he sticks to that pledge, or reverts to type when it really matters next summer.

📉 Hey Jude: Thomas Tuchel doesn’t appear to be nearly as beholden to cramming star power into his lineup as some previous England managers – often to their detriment. He’s seeking a cohesive unit. It’s admirable, but it’s also going to cause some uncomfortable conversations. Jude Bellingham, still working his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, wasn’t in the October squad, with Tuchel admitting he’s planning on talking to the Real Madrid midfielder about his role with the national team. Where does he best fit with Tuchel’s England? It’s unclear. The same is true of Trent Alexander-Arnold – a unicorn of a right-back who might not even make the team – and playmakers like Phil Foden and Jack Grealish.

Quick free-kicks 💥

What else is catching the eye?

Eyes on the draw: We’re quickly closing in on the World Cup draw, which takes place at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. on Dec. 5. That means teams have just one more international window – and two matches – next month to try and accumulate as many points as possible in the FIFA rankings, which are used to determine the various pots from which teams are drawn into their respective groups. This is largely now set, but there’s still room for some teams around the margins to rise or fall, which could play a significant role in determining whether or not they get a favorable group.

Brazil’s balancing act: Carlo Ancelotti is trying to bring back Brazil’s beloved “Joga Bonito” style after several years of uncharacteristic (and unpopular) workmanlike teams dragged down the excitement around the Selecao. The Italian tactician has to figure out some way to concoct a balanced XI out of a player pool that is heavy on forwards, goalkeepers, and center-backs but pretty light on elite central midfielders. Brazil’s two October friendlies featured 10 total goals, with action at both ends and little semblance of control in the middle of the park. Great for the neutral, but perhaps not for team itself?

Bizarro World Cup: Politics and sport are inextricably intertwined, particularly right now with FIFA under the stewardship of kingpin Gianni Infantino. Just don’t expect the governing body to actually admit that or try and intervene in any meaningful way. Are you tired of hearing about President Donald Trump and his threats to strip games from select U.S. cities? FIFA has made it clear it intends to cede some decision-making duties to Gianni’s best bud, so if anything, the White House will only grow in influence as the tournament nears.

Who’s in, who’s out? 🎟️

Twenty-eight of a possible 48 nations have booked their tickets. For a detailed breakdown of how each team has qualified so far, tap here.

For current World Cup qualifying standings, tap here.

Betting odds 🤑

Which teams are favored to win the tournament?

⚽️ Check out the full World Cup odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Key dates ahead 🗓️

Nov. 10-18: World Cup qualifying
Dec. 5, 2025: World Cup draw
March 23-31, 2026: Final World Cup qualifying matches
June 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament friendly matches
June 11, 2026: World Cup opening match