Badlands’ Heading to Near Franchise Record $37M

SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart … 20th Century Studios’ Predator Badlands is looking good, knock on wood, coursing to a very near record opening for the franchise, around $37M, after a $15.6M Friday/previews and the best CinemaScore a Predator movie has ever seen of A-. As we told you, the previous highs for a Predator movie were the original 1987 installment and 1990 sequel which earned B+s. That audience score is further boosted by the Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak definite recommend of 78% and five stars — which is platinum for any movie.

It’s clear audiences are enjoying this version of Predator from director/producer/writer Dan Trachtenberg and producers Ben Rosenblatt and John Davis, hence the higher-than-expected ticket sales which were expected to be around the $25M range. As we told you yesterday, the movie’s momentum is in a better position than Disney’s early October attempted tentpole, Tron: Ares thanks to word of mouth. At the end of the day, no matter how much stunting a studio does in a highly competitive social media-streaming landscape, the movie ultimately sells itself; meaning audiences discover it upon viewing and spread the gospel from there. Both Tron: Ares and Predator: Badlands dazzled Hall H at San Diego Comic-Con with equally memorable stunts; the lead character of the latter, Dek, stepping on stage to scan the audience with his eye vision.

Switching ratings, i.e. from R to PG-13, hasn’t dented the appeal for the alien killer movie, this particular installment casting the series villain as the protag. That’s the hook as far as distinguishing itself from previous Predator movies. Rather than just one sheet the fleshy toothy faced guy in a profile shot, one-sheets really went hardcore sci-fi with epic shots of him battling creatures, etc. The problem with the static opening between 2018’s The Predator and 2010’s Predators opening to around the same number of $25M, was that the campaigns were quite similar. There was no one-up.

What’s interesting though is that by going to PG-13, that may not have necessarily brought in a younger audience: Badlands only pulled in 5% for the 13-17 demo. Badlands compared to 2018’s The Predator shows that older males still come out for the IP (57% to 45%), as well as older females (about the same between both installments at 22%). However, men under 25 shrunk between The Predator and Badlands (went from 21% to 16% share) in addition to women under 25 (11% to 5%).

As far as the new upscale adult films, oy, nothing is mind-blowing gross wise.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands is creeping toward the second-best Friday start ever for the franchise at $14M, which would get the Dan Trachtenberg-directed movie to the second-best opening ever for a Predator movie at $33M. The John Davis-produced feature is booked at 3,725 theaters.

The best Friday and opening for a Predator movie belongs to 2004’s Alien v. Predator with $16.4M and $38.2M, respectively. Friday ticket sales of $14M includes the combined previews from Wednesday and Thursday of $4.8M.

Some might say, “Oh, well, this looks like Tron: Ares,” given how that movie a month ago posted a $14.4M Friday and a $33.2M start. But Predator: Badlands has some of the best reviews and audience scores for its franchise, plus it cost 52% less than the $220M pricetag of the Jared Leto movie.

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Second place goes to Paramount’s Colleen Hoover adaptation Regretting You with a third Friday of $1.9M and third weekend of $6.5M, -17%, at 3,196 theaters for a running total by Sunday of $37.9M.

At 2,943 theaters, it’s the fourth frame of Universal/Blumhouse’s The Black Phone 2 with $4.2M, -50%, after a $1.2M Friday and running cume through Sunday of $69M.

Fourth is Amazon MGM Studios/Kingdom Story/Wonder Project’s Sarah’s Oil is the best of the original adult bunch with $1.6M today, and $4.1M for the weekend at 2,410 theaters.

Focus Features’ third weekend (second wide) of Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia is looking at $1.1M today at 2,043 theaters, $3.7M for the frame, -26%, for a total by EOD Sunday of $12.5M.

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Sony Pictures Classics’ Nuremberg starring Russell Crowe, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon, John Slattery and more is seeing $1.4M today for a $3.5M opening at 1,802 theaters.

FRIDAY AM: The Dan Trachtenberg-directed Predator: Badlands speared $4.8 million in previews, which includes both Wednesday fan and Thursday night shows.

The preview number is less than that of another sci-fi genre title, Alien: Romulus‘ $6.5M, which also was a franchise reboot for the revived 20th Century Studios under new owner Disney. That Fede Alvarez-directed revival went on to open to $42M stateside. But keep in mind that movie was R-rated and had a mid-August release in 2024. Also, Predator: Badlands, with its female action hero sensibility, also is getting comperd by Disney sources to Ballerina, which did $3.8M in previews before a $24.5M opening in June. Badlands previews are also ahead of 2017’s Blade Runner 2049 which did $3.5M before a $12.5M Friday, and 3-day of $32.7M.

Also good news for Badlands at this point in time: Total previews here are ahead of The Predator, which did $2.5M in Thursday previews back in September 2018. That pic posted a $10.3M Friday on its way to a $24.6M start.

2004 crossover title Alien vs. Predator owns the franchise opening record at the domestic B.O. with $38.2M. 2010’s Predators from director Nimród Antal and produced by Robert Rodriguez follows as the second-best U.S./Canada opening for the series at $24.7M. The forecast going into the weekend for Badlands was $25M+, hopefully the second-best start in the Predator franchise.

1987’s Predator and 1990’s Predator 2 own the best CinemaScores for the series conceived by Jim and John Thomas with a B+.

Predator: Badlands cost $105M net before marketing, shot in New Zealand with tax credits. Trachtenberg breathed new life into the Predator movies in August 2022 with the direct-to-Hulu Prey, which was the streamer’s most-watched premiere ever at the time. Critics believed the movie should have been booked in theaters, hence, here we are with Badlands.

On the Rotten Tomatoes audience scale, Badlands is the fan favorite of the franchise with 96%, ahead of the original 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger movie at 87%. Prey remains the most critically acclaimed in the alien series at 94%.

Amazon MGM Studios release of Kingdom Story’s Sarah’s Oil posted $460K in previews. The
Cyrus Nowrasteh-directed faith-based movie starring Zachary Levi, Sonequa Martin-Green and Garrett Dillahunt follows the true story of 11-year old Sarah Rector, an African American girl born in Oklahoma Indian Territory in the early 1900s who believes there is oil beneath the barren land she’s allotted and whose faith is proven right. No RT or audience scores.

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Black Bear Finance’s first domestic theatrical release under its new arm, Christy, starring Sydney Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin, posted $400K in previews last night. RT reviews stand at 67% fresh. The pic is going wide in north of 2,000.

Sony Pictures Classics and Walden Media’s WWII drama Nuremberg, booked at 1,700 theaters this weekend, started off with $210K last night in previews. The movie directed and co-written by James Vanderbilt stands at 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from 76 reviews.

Mubi’s $24 million global acquisition Die My Love starring Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Lawrence is opening wide this weekend as well. Read

Top 5 for the week; note that Netflix’s Kpop Demon Hunters ,which made $5.9M over the weekend, didn’t play the weekdays, we’re told.