Private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, according to the ADP National Employment Report—a modest rebound after two months of losses, but still a far cry from the robust gains seen earlier this year.
Williamson pointed to a range of private and real-time indicators—jobless claims, online job postings, and models from the Chicago Federal Reserve—that together suggest a labor market losing steam but not in freefall.
“Job postings to Indeed slipped to four-year lows, suggesting companies are staying cautious about expansion. Private tallies of jobless claims, built from state-level data still being published, indicate that continuing claims are stable, but elevated enough to show it’s taking longer for unemployed workers to find new jobs,” Williamson said.
“Initial claims have crept up—likely reflecting temporary layoffs among federal workers—yet remain far from levels that would signal broad layoffs.
Meanwhile, real-time models by the Chicago Federal Reserve suggest the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.35% in October, pointing to growing slack, but no urgent signs of crisis,” he added.