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Key Takeaways
What’s next for the crypto market?
Macro uncertainty remains ahead of the Fed rate decision on December 10.
What are analysts’ views ahead Fed meeting?
The outlook was mixed, with some projecting near-term choppy price action.
The crypto markets saw a brief relief following the end of the U.S government’s long shutdown. Now the focus will shift to pending crypto bills and the Fed rate decision.
On the policy side, especially for altcoin ETFs, the update had no impact, as spot Solana [SOL] and Ripple [XRP] products have been launched automatically during the shutdown.
Even so, the most pressing policy action was the crypto market structure bill.
Although there has been recent progress, the DeFi issue will take a while to reach consensus. As such, some analysts expect the bill to be finalised either by year-end or early 2026.
Perhaps, the most crucial impact of ending the government shutdown would be getting a read on key macro prints and potential liquidity reactions due to Fed rate cuts.
Fed rate cut expectations vs. BTC
In an email to AMBCrypto, Nic Puckrin, Co-Founder of The Coin Bureau, said that the crypto market has struggled because of macro headwinds and liquidity concerns.
According to him, the post-shutdown scenario would be net positive for risk assets, albeit with some near-term chopinness. He added,
“As the US re-opens and data starts flooding back in, we may see the BTC price wobble over the coming weeks. But Bitcoin has defended the $100,000 threshold twice already this month, and it will do so again.”
Although he was more positive about another interest rate cut during the next Fed meeting on the 10th of December, the market was 50/50 on such an outcome as of press time.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
The Singapore-based crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, had warned that the Fed would adopt an “easing with caution” narrative into the next meeting.
With the government now reopened, the official macro prints would provide a better picture of the labor and inflation rates and determine the Fed’s decision.
But going by the current market odds, a cautious rate pause may deepen market choppiness.
Liquidity outlook improves
For its part, the blockchain analytics platform, Swissblock, projected that overall liquidity could fully recover in the next two weeks. The firm added,
“After the October 10 deleverage crash, liquidity began recovering, and it always leads price. The longer this uptrend holds, the stronger the bullish reaction that follows.”
Source: Swissblock