Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is expected to report mixed results for the second quarter, with analysts forecasting a modest increase in revenues and a decline in adjusted earnings. The core e-commerce business faces pressure from cautious consumer spending and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, the company’s booming cloud business remains a key growth driver.
BABA had a positive start to 2025, and the stock has sustained that momentum so far. It has gained a whopping 89% since the beginning of the year, marking a strong recovery from the weakness experienced over the past few years. The stock recently hit a four-year high but reversed course in early November, trending lower ahead of next week’s earnings. Meanwhile, analysts are bullish and recommend buying the stock, citing its potential to grow up to 23% in the next twelve months.
Q2 Report Due
The China-based e-commerce behemoth is set to report second-quarter results on November 25, before the opening bell. Analysts’ consensus revenue estimate for the September quarter is RMB243.2 billion, compared to RMB236.5 billion in the corresponding period of fiscal 2025. Market watchers are looking for adjusted earnings of RMB5.78 per share for Q2. That compares to RMB15.06 per share the company earned in the year-ago quarter, which includes certain one-off gains.
From Alibaba’s Q1 2026 Earnings Call:
“China has a well-developed e-commerce infrastructure, high population density, and strong demand for service consumption, providing a solid foundation for the integration of our quick commerce business and the Taobao app. We believe this convergence will fulfill consumer needs for a one-stop consumption experience and meet merchants’ desire to serve consumers across multiple scenarios. It will enhance commerce efficiency and pave the way for an all-in-one AI assistant for consumption. Alibaba’s strategic positioning in quick Commerce has ambitions beyond competing in a single category.”
Mixed Q1
Alibaba entered fiscal 2026 on a mixed note — revenues grew 2% year-over-year to RMB247.7 billion, or $34.5 billion in the first quarter, while adjusted earnings declined by 10% to RMB14.75, or $2.06 per ADS. Revenue from the Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment was up 10% YoY, and International Digital Commerce Group revenue rose 19%. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue jumped 26% in Q1. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB43.1 billion, or $6 billion, up 78% compared to last year. Earnings per ADS surged 82% from last year to RMB17.98, or $2.51.
The company has been actively investing in technology, particularly in AI, to drive growth across e-commerce, cloud computing, and other businesses. The e-commerce business got a major boost from the recent integration of AI into the platform, even as the broader industry is facing challenges like restrained consumer spending, increasing competition, and a complex regulatory environment.
The average price of Alibaba’s stock for the last 52 weeks is $124.23. On Tuesday, the stock opened slightly lower but soon gained momentum and was trading up 1.5% in the afternoon.