That capital could help soften any significant drop in property values. “You could still see declines in the 10-20% range,” Weinberg said, “but not 30%, 40% like in 2008.”
Still, the impact will vary by region. “You can take a market like Indianapolis, Indiana, which is still appreciating, and compare it to Denver, which has taken along at 20% price increases year over year,” he said. “It’s going to be very market specific.”
Fairview, which services its own loan book primarily across Georgia, Colorado, and Florida, hasn’t seen a spike in delinquencies yet. “Our portfolio is performing pretty much constant, like the last 12 to 18 months,” he said.
That data suggests the next 6–12 months won’t bring a crash—but it doesn’t mean stability will hold. “We’re going to have choppiness in real estate,” he said. “But we aren’t going to have an ’08 shit-hits-the-fan type of event. At least not in the near term.”
Condos under pressure, urban markets strained
Weinberg’s greatest concern lies in the condo market. “That’s my biggest area of concern,” he said, citing rising inventories, insurance issues, and large special assessments in cities like Denver. “It’s going to lead to some price declines.”