At COP30 in Belém, countries are busy discussing a new ‘roadmap’ to guide the transition away from coal, oil and gas. It may well be that the work is begun here and then handed to the next COP host – very likely to be Australia in partnership with the Pacific – to finish the job. In other words, we may be seeing the ground laid for a showdown on fossil fuels at COP31 in Adelaide next year.
More on that later. Let’s first look at a couple of highlights from week 1 in Belém.
Truth to power
COP is about more than the two weeks of technical negotiations behind closed doors. Each year, global civil society shows up in force to keep our governments accountable and to show the world what a stronger, safer future looks like.
On Wednesday of the first week, over 5,000 people aboard 200 boats, including our Rainbow Warrior, took to the river to demonstrate against false climate solutions and to show that the answer to a sustainable world lies with the ancestral knowledge and practices of Indigenous peoples and local communities.
This was followed at the end of the week with a powerful 40,000-strong ‘Great People’s March’ through the streets of Belém – a joyous and defiant demonstration led by Indigenous peoples of the Amazon and pulsing with songs, dances and a deafening call for climate justice.
Setting the stage for a COP31 fossil fuel showdown
Two years ago, at COP28 in Dubai, the world finally agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. The problem? Since then, fossil fuel consumption has only increased, pushing global climate pollution to new highs and unleashing even more destruction. The mining and burning of fossil fuels accounts for around 70% of global climate pollution. It is by far the biggest contribution to the climate crisis.
We need countries to develop a concrete action plan to make good on that landmark commitment made back in 2023. One agreed by all countries, and with deadlines and assurances that adequate support will be there to support poorer countries and communities through the transition. Right now, this is all on the table here in Belém. But many of the deeply entrenched political divisions that have hampered this process for over three decades remain. As we go into week two, there is a lot at stake and a lot to play for.
One possible outcome is that countries will agree here to begin working on a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, with that work then taken up by the host of COP31. While we are still (after nearly three years!) waiting for the decision on who will host COP31, the odds are still on for a COP hosted in Australia, in partnership with the Pacific.
This could present a huge opportunity to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. Most of the growth in fossil fuel consumption is in Asia, and Australia is one of the major suppliers of coal and gas to the region. Meanwhile, the Pacific is leading the fight to phase out fossil fuels and limit warming to 1.5ºC. Done right, COP31 can be a catalyst that drives the phase out of fossil fuels not only in Australia but across Asia and the wider world.
Leadership from the frontlines
An action plan on fossil fuels will be part of a larger package of measures to help close the gap between countries’ current national climate plans and what the science tells us is necessary to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
When we arrived in Belém, addressing the 1.5ºC ‘emissions gap’ wasn’t even on the table. Fortunately, an early push by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) helped ensure this became part of the agenda. The question, as so often at COP, is will Australia and other big polluters finally get behind the leadership of Pacific Island nations and back a plan that can ensure a safer future for all.
Adelaide or Antalya?
Finally, with each day comes another rumour on whether Australia has managed to cut a deal with Türkiye over who will host COP31.
One of the first sights on entering the cavernous conference venue is the Australian and Turkish pavilions, butting up against one another. In the coded language of UN gatherings, this literally screams “you guys need to talk!”
Sadly, as we enter the all-important second week of COP, we seem no closer to knowing.
The one thing we do know is that a COP31 held in Australia, if it is a true partnership with the Pacific, will be the biggest opportunity we’ve ever had to force a fossil fuel phase out here in Australia, and to play an outsized role in the world’s response to the climate crisis.
We’re keeping our fingers crossed and will be in touch as soon as there is any news!