- European businesses anticipate a significantly worse economic impact from U.S. tariffs in 2026 compared to 2025.
- The negative impact on Eurozone GDP is projected to rise from 0.03 percentage points in 2025 to as much as 0.6 percentage points in 2026.
- The overall effect of tariffs and uncertainty on Eurozone growth is estimated to be around 0.7 percentage points between 2025 and 2027.
- Companies are concerned that the lack of predictability regarding future U.S. tariff policy poses ongoing medium-term growth challenges.
A new survey conducted by the business lobby group BusinessEurope indicates that European businesses anticipate a significantly greater negative impact from U.S. tariffs and trade tensions in 2026 than they experienced in 2025. The survey, which gathered responses from 36 national business federations across EU and non-EU countries, points to a substantial economic drag in the coming year.
In 2025, trade tensions were forecast to reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Eurozone and the broader European region by a relatively modest 0.03 percentage points, largely because businesses front-loaded activity to mitigate the immediate consequences. However, for 2026, the expected negative impact is projected to escalate dramatically to between 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points, with the Eurozone predicted to be the hardest hit.
BusinessEurope’s findings align with the European Central Bank (ECB) view that the total impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Eurozone growth will likely be around 0.7 percentage points between 2025 and 2027. While the ECB noted that an EU-U.S. trade deal in late July helped to mitigate some policy uncertainty, BusinessEurope emphasized that companies remain concerned about the lack of predictability regarding future U.S. tariff policy. This uncertainty, combined with the delayed economic effect, presents serious medium-term challenges to European growth.