A new global analysis suggests Canada’s major metros are among the hardest places on earth for young people to buy their first home, with Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal ranking near the bottom of a 70-city affordability index.
The study, from UAE-based developer Bloom Holding, estimates the typical first-time buyer in Vancouver enters the market at age 46, while those in Toronto and Montreal reach homeownership at around 40 and 39, respectively.
The findings echo a broader North American trend. In the United States, the median first-time buyer age has climbed to a record 40, according to the National Association of Realtors — up from 33 just a few years ago — as higher rates and decade-long price gains delay ownership for younger households.
Data points to a steep down payment hurdle in Canada
Bloom’s analysis calculates how long it takes an average-income resident in each city to save a 15–25% down payment, assuming they begin saving at around age 23. On that metric, Canadian metros stand out for the sheer time required to accumulate a deposit:
- Vancouver: price per m² $10,087 USD; estimated down payment $247,838 USD; first-time buyer age 46.
- Toronto: price per m² $7,314 USD; down payment $179,705 USD; age 40.
- Montreal: price per m² $6,938 USD; down payment $170,467 USD; age 39.
By comparison, first-time buyers in Bucharest (25) and Budapest/Vilnius (26) gain ownership nearly two decades earlier, on average.
Michael Davenport, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, said the results align with Oxford’s internal affordability metrics. “Canada’s housing affordability challenges are disproportionately concentrated in major metro areas like Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver,” he said, adding that “Southern Ontario and British Columbia metros, such as Hamilton and Victoria, also rank among the most unaffordable in the country.”
While affordability has improved modestly alongside falling prices and lower mortgage rates, Davenport added that “(affordable) housing remains out of reach for many households, particularly in major Ontario and British Columbia metros.”
Monthly affordability is improving, but the downpayment hurdle isn’t
Oxford Economics’ Housing Affordability Index (HAI), which measures the borrowing capacity of a median-income household assuming a 20% down payment — a level not typical for most first-time buyers — has eased meaningfully over the past two years.
The national HAI fell from 130 in mid-2023 to 104 in Q2 2025, its lowest level since 2020. At that level, the average home is still about 4% more expensive than what a median-income household can borrow, but affordability is improving.
City-level results remain uneven: Vancouver’s HAI has fallen from 189 to 153, but remains the least-affordable metro in the country; Toronto’s has dropped from 163 to 132; and Montreal’s from 108 to 96, making it generally affordable on a borrowing basis.
Davenport emphasized that Oxford’s index only measures monthly affordability, pointing out that Oxford’s HAI “measures the borrowing capacity of the local median income household relative to local average house prices, and assumes households have a 20% down payment.” He noted that the Bloom Holding report highlights how saving for a down payment remains a significant challenge for many households — particularly in the GTA and GVA, where housing remains most unaffordable.
Policy has eased pressure, but deeper structural gaps remain
Governments have introduced measures aimed at improving affordability, including looser mortgage lending guidelines allowing 30-year mortgages for first-time buyers and new builds, GST reductions on eligible new homes, and programs designed to increase housing supply. Government measures to moderate immigration levels are also helping ease demand pressures.
Over time, Davenport expects national housing affordability to improve as supply expands faster than demand.
“Over the medium-to-long run, we expect housing supply will grow faster than housing demand at the national level, helping to keep house price growth in check and restore affordability at the national level,” he said. But he also cautioned that “major metros like Toronto and Vancouver will likely remain severely unaffordable over the long run.”
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Last modified: November 18, 2025