Stop watching the Fed: Why liquidity, not rates, will drive non-QM in 2026

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“These markets have grown despite rising interest rates,” Fertig told Mortgage Professional America. “I think everybody’s looking at, ‘Hey, what is the Fed going to do?’ But every time the Fed seems to lower, the middle and the long end of the curve go the other way, which is what’s affecting rates, if anything.

“But I think that the credit markets, in terms of non-QM in general, and these products are super healthy. We have seen more so than some of the macro factors. Because, whether it’s the tariffs, inflation, you know, potential for a slowdown or a recession, that’s all interrelated.”

Rates and spreads

Fertig said no matter what’s going on in either the economy or in the geopolitical sphere, it comes down to two major factors in the non-QM space.

“The geopolitical tension, deficits, government shutdown, whatever you want to talk about,” he said. “Ultimately, I have to distill it down into what’s relevant, and that’s interest rates and spreads for us.”

In the consumer mortgage loan space, there has been talk of borrowers being more hesitant to enter the market, potentially waiting for rates to fall. It’s a little more complicated in the investment space, which has allowed deals to continue to flow with less hesitation.