Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2025

Study on the concept and framework of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, YAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A delivery agenda on climate change, , Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01719-1

Avoiding the climate “ambition trap”, Dubash, Science 10.1126/science.aed3356

Bill Gates’s climate comments are a dangerous distraction, Mann, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03712-2

Leaders at COP30 should promote solar and wind power over mega-dams, Yang et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03781-3

Nations at COP30 must cancel fossil-fuel concessions to keep the Paris agreement in reach, Orta-Martínez et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03780-4

South Africa is right to put debt, climate and inequality at the heart of G20, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03758-2

Standing up for Inuit-led research in Canada’s changing Arctic, Woolston, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03565-9

Who will fill the climate-data void left by the Trump administration?, Janis & Richards, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03532-4

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

World Energy Outlook 2025, Cozzi et al., International Energy Agency

Pressing threats and longer term hazards are elevating energy to a core issue of economic and national security. Energy is at the heart of today’s geopolitical tensions, with traditional risks to fuel supply now accompanied by restrictions affecting supplies of critical minerals. The electricity sector – so essential to modern economies – is also increasingly vulnerable to cyber, operational and weather-related hazards. Geopolitical fragility coexists with subdued oil prices. Ongoing conflicts and instability sit alongside oil market balances showing a large surplus of supply over demand. Countries are prioritizing energy security and affordability but are reaching for different levers to achieve them. Some, including many fuel-importing countries, lean towards renewables and efficiency as solutions. Others focus more on ensuring ample supplies of traditional fuels.

Warming Projections Global Update, November 2025, Gonzales-Zuñiga et al., Climate Analytics, Next Climate Institute, and Institute for Essential Services Reform

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world stands at a critical juncture in the fight against climate change, with little to no measurable progress in the Climate Action Tracking’s warming projections, now for the fourth consecutive year. Almost none of the 40 governments the CAT analyses have updated their 2030 target, which is critical to keep warming levels below 1.5°C, nor have they set out the kind of action in new 2035 targets needed to change course. As a result, the temperature projection for our “2030 and 2035 targets scenario”, the one estimating impact of submitted climate targets (NDCs) to date, remains at 2.6°C, the same as last year. In other words, the 2035 NDCs so far submitted do not change the dial in terms of keeping warming to 1.5?C.

Climate Information Integrity: How to act now to ensure the success of the climate agenda, FALA Impact Studio and Climate Action Against Disinformation

Confronting climate disinformation requires structural change. In practice, this means urgently overhauling the supply chain of lies. This can only happen through public policies that connect the climate agenda with information integrity, challenge harmful business models, and promote healthy, safe communication ecosystems. Calls to action include call out climate disinformation for what it is, demonetize the supply chain of lies, and ensure transparency and accountability in the use of AI and technology for spreading disinformation.

US Clean Energy Pipeline Report Executive Summary, LevelTen Energy

The authors conducted a survey of renewable energy developers across the United States. A total of 29 distinct developers’ responses were collected and aggregated. Note that not all 29 developers were able to answer every question in the survey. The report includes development pipeline information on US-based solar, wind, storage, and hybrid projects. The authors provide a comprehensive view of the Power Purchase Agreement market post-One Big Beautiful Act trends, analysis of the effects of these regulatory events on the market, and survey insights from renewable developers.

All-Electric Building Act. The impact of the AEBA on New York State’s grid, Juan-Pablo Velez and Bryan Murra, Spring Street Climate Fund

Analyzing data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) and the U.S. Census Bureau, the authors found that the All Electric Building Act (AEBA) will increase electricity use from buildings in winter, not summer. Virtually all new buildings already have air-conditioning. Today, New York’s grid has significant spare capacity in the winter: the winter peak is only 77% of the summer peak. The short-term reliability risks identified by NYISO— for the next five years—are all associated with the summer peak. Therefore, the AEBA will not contribute to short-term reliability risks. Rather, it will make better use of the grid’s spare winter capacity.

The economic benefits of renewable energy and how to share them, Fankhauser et al., Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

Renewable energy can power economies and empower communities, but these benefits need to be shared fairly. The authors highlight the economic benefits of renewables and shows how community funds, co-ownership and inclusive consultation can transform the clean energy transition into a just transition.

Local Resilience and Climate Adaptation Planning Survey, Henriët Hendriks and Kim Napoline, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

In February 2025, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) invited more than a thousand local governmental organizations as well as Tribal Nations located within the geography of Minnesota to complete its fourth iteration of the “Survey of Local and Tribal Planning Efforts for Local Resilience and Climate Adaptation.” Analysis of the survey and grantee data resulted in five key findings, which provide insight into the status and ongoing local efforts to prepare communities for extreme weather events and longer-term changes in the climate.

PJM–Forecasts, Fast Tracks and Fixes, Fox et al., Clearview Energy Partners

PJM has created a Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) process to consider “solutions” to integrate large loads onto the grid while ensuring resource adequacy. The latest solution package would: (1) enhance load forecasting with state utility commission and third-party reviews and inquiries into duplicative interconnection requests; (2) implement a new Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT) for >250 MW “sponsored” generation, with or without a contractual commitment to new large load; and (3) reform the Price Responsive Demand service to encourage loads to manage demand in response to market signals. The solution package also references potential future “adjustments” at the direction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Monitoring, Reporting and Verification for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal, Muri et al., European Marine Board

The authors highlight current knowledge gaps and the need to establish standardized MRV protocols for marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR). The authors clarify the current scientific, technical and policy challenges that must be addressed to develop appropriate and reliable Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) for any future mCDR activities. However, the development of robust, method-specific MRV protocols, demonstrated to detect, attribute, and verify net removals while transparently accounting for uncertainties in a manner suitable for policy and market use, is vital if mCDR approaches are to be scaled up or deployed alongside other methods. CDR is not a substitute for reducing emissions, but it may serve as a supplementary measure to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Climate change and mental health: thematic assessment report, UK Health Security Agency

Climate change is negatively affecting mental health in the UK today, largely through the effects of extreme weather such as flooding and heat, and an increasing awareness of the long-term impacts of climate change. There is growing evidence for a wide range of impacts from climate change on mental health, including suicide and conditions such as depression and anxiety. While additional research is needed to understand the scale of the contribution climate change makes to mental ill-health, these impacts are likely to grow as the climate warms, in the absence of appropriate interventions and adaptations.

Global Methane Status Report 2025, Abakerli et al., United Nations Environment Program

The authors provide updates on global progress on methane mitigation and the remaining work needed to achieve the?Global Methane Pledge, as well as the potential for further ambition. The report also provides momentum and incentive for rapid and increased action by showcasing successes, as well as an outlook on the role of empirical data and the financing of methane abatement.?

From Silos to Synergies. Linking Planning, Finance, and Monitoring for Coherent Action on Climate, Biodiversity, and Land, Atallah et al., United Nations Environment Program

The authors identify practical pathways to turn synergy from principle into practice. They distil dialogue outcomes—highlighting both enablers and barriers—to guide the shift from siloed approaches to coherent implementation systems that deliver across climate, biodiversity and land objectives efficiently, transparently and at scale.

Power Demand Forecasts Revised Up for Third Year Running, Led by Data Centers, Wilson et al., Grid Strategies

The aggregate national load forecast has reached 166 GW projected by 2030, a six-fold increase over the “flat” growth that was forecast in 2022. This growth is equivalent to 15x the peak load of New York City. The authors also examine the role that data center growth and additional load from manufacturing and electrification play in the 5-year forecast.

Disasters Become a Fact of Life for Many U.S. Electric Utility Customers, Brian Jaklitsch; and Joe LaMuraglia, JD. Power

Disasters, such as the Los Angeles wildfires and severe spring and early summer thunderstorms that caused flash floods throughout many parts of the United States, have contributed to more than $131 billion in global losses in the first half of 2025. They have also created a new set of challenges for the nation’s electric utilities—and their customers—who were already straining under the weight of rising costs, aging infrastructure and an uncertain economy. Overall, 45% of utility customers nationwide say they have experienced a power outage in the first half of 2025. Of those outages, 48% were due to extreme weather such as a hurricane, ice or snowstorm, thunderstorm, wind or tornado or fire. These extreme weather events were so violent that 17% of customers who were affected by a natural disaster say they had to evacuate their homes.

Household and home business research: Emerging lifestyles preferences and practices, Kaviani et al., Emerging Technologies Research Lab (Monash University) Melbourne, Australia

The authors present their findings from the first national Scenarios for Future Living (SFL) household survey, completed by more than 5,000 Australians in April–May 2025. The survey explores how emerging social trends, lifestyle shifts, and evolving household routines are shaping technology use in the home and the implications for future energy demand. The survey builds on trends identified in the Digital Energy Futures and Future Home Demand projects conducted by Monash University’s Emerging Technologies Research Lab.

Agrifood systems in national adaptation plans. An analysis, Crumpler et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

As the national adaptation plan (NAP) process gains global momentum, this joint FAO–UNDP analysis produced under the SCALA programme looks across all NAPs from developing countries – 64 in total as of 15 June 2025 – to take stock of adaptation priorities and needs in agrifood systems. The analysis serves as a reference for guiding adaptation implementation and investments, highlighting adaptation planning progress and gaps, and providing actionable insights on how to strengthen the integration of agrifood systems into NAPs in a way that is grounded in evidence-based, forward-looking, and inclusive approaches. It recognizes that agrifood systems are highly sensitive and exposed to climate change, and their effective integration into NAPs is an important step towards advancing resilience, food security, and sustainable development.

About New Research

Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.