Private reports fill the gap as layoffs surge
Without official numbers, the Fed is expected to lean more heavily on private-sector indicators, such as the ADP National Employment Report. But these alternatives are “less comprehensive and more volatile, making it harder to draw firm conclusions about underlying labor market trends,” Williamson said.
ADP revealed that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 54,064 job cuts for the month. Hiring plans, meanwhile, have collapsed to the lowest level since 2009.
The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October have hit 100%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, as mounting economic headwinds and political turmoil sharpen the focus on monetary policy.https://t.co/hjoRJ4CNoM
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 2, 2025
After cutting rates in September, Fed officials, including Stephen Miran, signaled openness to further easing. On the other hand, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, a voting member this year, warned that cutting rates too soon could be risky, saying recent data has put the central bank in a tough position as it tries to balance inflation and jobs. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan also urged caution in separate remarks.
However, with limited data, Williamson believes the central bank may prefer to hold steady until the flow of information resumes. “A similar dynamic played out during the 2018–19 shutdown, when data gaps contributed to the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting,” Williamson said.
Mortgage market braces for volatility
For mortgage professionals, the lack of timely data could mean more volatility in bond markets and mortgage rates, as investors attempt to anticipate the Fed’s next move using alternative data sources.