The oil market is likely get some relief from the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137K barrels per day.
There were persistent reports and rumors last week that OPEC was considering raising 400-500k bpd to accelerate the wind down of the ‘voluntary’ phase of cuts. Instead, this pace stretches the return of barrels over the course of a year. The latest reports said Russia was pushing for a slower return of barrels while Saudi Arabia wanted to fight for market share.
Naturally, fewer barrels than expected is bullish for oil but the risk is that the market sees this move as a sign the crude market is over-supplied. Large inventories of oil-on-water are ominous for crude even before this latest output hike.
WTI crude last week slumped to the lowest since May as the large OPEC+ production increase rumors did the rounds.