Mortgage rates forecast to decline
The ESR Group slightly lowered its mortgage rate projections, now expecting the 30-year fixed rate to end 2025 at 6.3% and fall to 5.9% by the end of 2026.
The modest decline is expected to lift single-family mortgage originations to $1.88 trillion this year, up from the prior estimate of $1.85 trillion.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), by comparison, projected $2 trillion in single-family origination volume for 2025, as the industry braces for a year shaped by shifting rates, evolving affordability, and regional disparities in home prices.
An independent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO could happen in early 2026, depending on President Trump’s decision, according to Federal Housing director Bill Pulte.https://t.co/IbyKXQyLFY
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 24, 2025
Home sales and broader economic context
Fannie Mae revised its 2025 home sales forecast upward to 4.74 million units, with 2026 unchanged at 5.16 million.
Meanwhile, the ESR Group raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook to 1.9% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026.