 
 
Bitcoin has officially ended October in the red for the first time in seven years, snapping its long-standing “Uptober” streak.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, as it has produced consistent gains since 2019. But this year, the flagship crypto closed down roughly 3.35%, shaken by a mid-month flash crash linked to renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions.
Even the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut did little to restore momentum. As it stands, traders are uncertain about November’s direction.
Analysts, such as those who follow the Bull Theory, believe the downturn could be setting the stage for a powerful recovery. “Bitcoin isn’t crashing, it’s resetting,” they stated, noting that BTC’s price recently touched $106,000 along the same mean trendline that has supported every rally this year.
Meanwhile, both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain steady, while regression models indicate that the slope continues upward. The absence of major exchange inflow spikes further supports the idea of accumulation rather than distribution.
 
Macro conditions may also favor a rebound. With the Fed’s rate cuts, easing of U.S.–China tariffs, and the end of quantitative tightening on December 1, global liquidity is expected to expand again. That kind of environment has historically preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.
Data from CoinGlass shows November averages 46% monthly gains over the past 12 years, often acting as the launchpad for major year-end surges. Even in weaker market cycles, the last quarter tends to deliver substantial volatility and, often, recovery.
However, there are still some noteworthy market variables, such as the upcoming soft fork proposal, which has divided the Bitcoin community, and whale activity signals both accumulation and profit-taking.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, holding nearly $150 billion in assets, continue to provide a price floor, but fading inflows may reflect hesitation among institutions. That said, technical resistance around $111,000 is the key level to watch, as breaking above it could confirm renewed bullish momentum.