The Week That Was: 2025 05-10 (May 10, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.”— Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: 65% of Observed
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins with a sidenote introducing a correction: it did not emphasize that on the grid, all generators must be synchronized, with the phases of the AC cycles all within about a millisecond of each other. TWTW discusses the importance of humidity in global climate models and what appears to be occurring with humidity and clouds in in Earth’s atmosphere. Discussed is a paper by Ross McKitrick on the history of daytime high temperatures in Canada since 1888 to 2017 at 30 weather stations and the 46 plus years of temperature trends in the atmosphere. Also discussed is a paper by Spencer, Christy, and Braswell estimating the US summertime heat island effect and a post by Willis Eschenbach on continued efforts by US research organizations to splice together different measurements of sea level rise without using control periods to ensure they measure the same thing the same way. TWTW will conclude with a discussion of a paper by climatologist Judith Curry and economist Harry DeAngelo on energy policies.
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Sidenote: In North America, the power coming into your house is two lines of 120 Volts (V), 60 Hertz (Hz). Connect them together, and you blow breakers. That’s because the voltages are out of phase by 180 degrees. Your electric stove uses both lines to get 240 VAC. Now imagine the problem of connecting two generators (perhaps miles apart) and not making sparks. The AC voltages and the phases must be equal — say, no more than 1 degree out of phase and no more than 2% off in voltage. In any case, tying one generator into the existing grid requires synchronization of voltage and phase, which requires knowledge of the relevant data, and slow adjustment until synchronization is achieved, after which the new generator is switched in.
With steam cycles of gas turbines, stability is partly due to their rotational inertia. (In fact, it’s hard to believe that there’s anywhere near as much rotational inertia in the rotors as there is in an array of wind turbines.) But the big contrast with wind and solar is that if the frequency drops a little, with gas you can increase things up immediately with more fuel or more steam, but not with more wind or sunlight.
Important Correction – Synchronous generation: Power Engineer Jim O’Brien of the Irish Climate Science Forum corrected last week’s TWTW when he noted that in discussing the Iberian power failure, TWTW did not emphasize the importance of having many heavy turning machines generating electricity synchronized. In Europe, all the thermal and hydro turbines are matched to generate electricity at 50 Hertz, in North America at 60 Hertz. Synchronizing the turning machines creates a huge team working in unison to overcome disruptions to smooth flow of current. O’Brien writes:
“I thought your pieces in the TWTW of May 3 missed the key point about the Iberian blackout.
In short it was the lack of the inertia on the grid traditionally given by synchronous thermal generation. The grid was almost entirely being fed by asynchronous renewables – tantamount to skating on ice. Any fault whatsoever in the grid did then inevitably destabilize the grid, causing frequency collapse.
There is a rule of thumb that for every MWh of renewable energy, a MWh of conventional generation must be instantly available to provide grid stability, in other words, a full back-up system available as spinning reserve. This is particularly acute when the renewable capacity exceeds system demand, as it does in Spain by a factor of 2 (in the US overall it is only 0.2, but is much higher in some States, e.g., Texas, which has also had blackouts). Reliance in such emergencies cannot be placed on interconnectors.
It is somewhat scary that system operators do not yet seem to grasp this fundamental truth, the Achilles heel of intermittent renewables.
Although wind power is synchronized with the electrical grid, it is through various methods such as power inverters which do not provide the inertia needed. In 2022 General Electric (GE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory announced:
“Wind Turbines Can Stabilize the Grid
First-ever demonstration shows wind can fulfill a wider role in future power systems.
In a milestone for renewable energy integration, General Electric (GE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) operated a common class of wind turbines in grid-forming mode, which is when the generator can set grid voltage and frequency and, if necessary, operate without power from the electric grid.”
https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/wind-turbines-can-stabilize-grid
At least NREL is aware of the problem, but TWTW found no discussion of deployment of such a system or how expensive it is. Power Engineer Dave Edwards has a description in his post with an amusing comment:
“Think of inertia a bit like us seasoned engineers on LinkedIn: ‘It’s the ability of an object (engineer) to resist change.’”
In a post on Watts Up With That, Andy May wrote:
“It is a bit premature to blame the power failure on solar and wind power generation, but it is not too early to say that Spain’s over reliance on solar and wind contributed to the failure. Ali Mehrizi-Sani, Virginia Tech professor and director of the Power and Energy Center, writes:
‘Renewables introduce a new paradigm in electric power generation—they generate power without needing large rotating masses. This means that with more renewables, the inertia of the power grid is reduced. Less inertia can make the grid more agile but also more fragile during sudden disturbances.’”
See links under Energy Issues – Non-US and under Energy Issues – Iberian Peninsula.
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Cloudy Issues: The global climate modelers used by the IPCC develop complex models that produce different results, but as Tim Palmer, a pioneer in using the ensemble technique for climate models wrote, they all agree that a one degree C rise in global temperature from carbon dioxide will increase water vapor to the extent that it will increase global temperatures by one degree C, resulting in a two degree C increase. This amplification from increased water vapor is a big issue. Further, it is not known whether an increase in water vapor will cause an increase in clouds causing a cooling from blocking sunlight. (The models exhibited in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (2021) show the effect of all GHGs combined, including H2O to be about 40% as large as the effect from CO2.)
John Robson states part of the issue well when he writes (charts omitted here but are in the essay):
“Look it up, way up, because clouds are where the action is. In a climate model, CO2 doesn’t do most of the warming. Instead that honor goes to water vapor, which occurs everywhere in the atmosphere at varying concentrations. [Note that most of the historic warming is due to water vapor, in the models most of the increase in warming is triggered by CO2.] When the vapor condenses into large collections of droplets we call it a cloud. And according to the theory, as the air warms a bit due to water vapor, it can hold more water vapor which, being a far more potent greenhouse gas, then dramatically boosts the initial warming. But what of practice? The observed concentration of water in the air is called the “specific humidity” and the concentration relative to the maximum possible at the current temperature is called the “relative humidity.” As you rise above the surface (though a weather balloon would not be a very comfortable ride) the models say you should observe increasing specific humidity and constant or increasing relative humidity, yielding a stronger and stronger amplifying effect as you go up through the lower and mid-troposphere that then weakens as you approach the top of the troposphere at about 16 km altitude. The models say. But to see what the data say we can turn to Professor Ole Humlum’s Climate4You website. And they tell a very different tale.
The specific humidity since 1948 at three levels (surface, lower troposphere, and mid-troposphere) is shown on this chart:
We see a fairly steady upward trend in specific humidity at the surface and in the lower troposphere (600 millibar layer) after 1970. But in the mid-troposphere (300 mb) there is more variability and, since the late 1970s, a downward trend.
As for relative humidity, the models say it should be steady or increasing at each level. But the data show the following:
Oh dear. It [relative humidity] seems to be steady at the surface but declining above. Admittedly for the past 25 years it’s been steady in the mid-troposphere and only declining a bit in the lower troposphere. But what you see is not the overall picture we would expect from the world of settled science. Instead, it’s the kind of complications and anomalies we expect in the world of messy data, as long as we know how to #lookitup.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Not in Canada: In 2018 Ross McKitrick, who was a co-recipient of the 2023 SEPP Frederick Seitz award, published a paper “Trends in Historical Daytime Highs in Canada 1888-2017.” The summary states:
“1. There is a tradeoff between the number of available stations and the length of record. There are 30 stations with data back to 1888 and 267 stations with data back to 1978.
2. Over the past 130 years the median warming rate in the average daytime high is about 0.1 degrees per decade or 1 degree per century. [Boldface added]
3. Over long samples there is little polar amplification (increased warming with latitude), but it does appear in fall and winter months in more recent subsamples.
4. Over the past 100 years, warming has been stronger in winter than summer or fall. October has cooled slightly. The Annual average daytime high has increased by about 0.1 degrees per decade. 72 percent of stations did not exhibit statistically significant warming or cooling.
5. Since 1939 there has been virtually no change in the median July and August daytime highs across Canada, and October has cooled slightly.
6. There are 247 stations with data back to 1958. However, as the time span decreases the range of observed trends greatly expands. All months exhibit median warming but with much wider variability.
7. Post-1958 Arctic coverage is much better than earlier. There is little indication of polar amplification.
8. post-1978 the range of trends grows dramatically. The median trend in March and April is slightly negative.
9. Some polar amplification is observed in the post-1978 annual trend, mainly due to the late fall and early winter months.”
Admittedly, the data for the entire record of 1888 to 2017 is sparse, only 30 stations. But a daytime warming rate for a large area in a cool climate of only 0.1ºC per decade or 1ºC per century is hardly alarming. Greenhouse gases prevent drastic cooling at night. Yet, the IPCC and its collaborators emphasize daytime high temperatures.
The Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville reported:
“The 46+ year trend remains at +0.15 C/decade, but we note the value is +0.154 C/decade and likely will tip up to +0.155 C/decade in the next month or two, thereby rounding up to +0.16 C/decade. We estimate the error range of this trend over 46+ years at ±0.03 C/decade.”
Again, the global atmospheric data, where the greenhouse gas effect occurs, are not showing dangerous warming. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Summertime Urban Heat Island Effects: The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology published a paper by Roy Spencer, John Christy, and William Braswell, titled “Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023.” The abstract states:
“A novel method is described for quantifying average urban heat island (UHI) warming since 1895 in contiguous U.S. (CONUS) summer air temperature data. The method quantifies the sensitivity of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) station raw temperature to station-centered population density (PD). Specifically, closely spaced station pair differences in monthly raw (non-homogenized) TAVG (the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature) and PD are sorted by station pair average PD into six PD classes, and linear regression estimates of the temperature sensitivity to population density change (dTAVG/dPD) are made for each class for historical periods ranging from 1 to 21 years in length. Every one of the resulting six sensitivity relationships in each of 22 historical periods from 1880 to 2020 are found to be positive, and their magnitudes allow construction of station-average urban heat island temperature (TUHI) curves as a function of population density. When applied to the history of population changes at each CONUS station location (1895–2023) and grouped into four categories of station population density, the resulting TUHI warming trends range from 8% of observed TAVG warming for the most rural category of stations to about 65% of observed warming for suburban and urban categories. Across all stations the UHI warming amounts to 22% of the observed raw GHCN warming trend, (+0.016 versus +0.072 °C [per] decade). The method provides an independent way to quantify station average UHI warming over time.”
If the technique is verified, then we have a method to estimate the Urban Heat Island Effects of cities with growing populations. (Probably, it does not apply to cities with declining populations.) It is doubtful the organizations that emphasize statements such as “The hottest day ever” would be interested in this method. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Sea Level Readings: Over one hundred years ago, the British Admiralty realized that the best way to understand sea level change was to establish tidal gauges in geologically stable areas such as Newlyn, Cornwall, in Southwest England. Newlyn is on granite bedrock and has little or no seismic activity. The gage readings have increases and decreases in the rate of rise, showing the effects of changes in prevailing winds. The 100-year trend is 1.8 mm per year or about 7 inches per century.
Unfortunately, those who report readings from satellites fail to calibrate the satellite measurements with measurements from stable tidal gauges. In his post, “Sea Level: NASA Versus NOAA” Willis Eschenbach writes:
“I see that the NASA folks are busily putting the hype back into hyperventilate. Over at The Cool Down, the news is headlined:
NASA issues warning after sudden change in the ocean surprises scientists: ‘Getting faster and faster.’
From the underlying NASA article:
Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, last year’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.
‘The rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected,’ said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California. ‘Every year is a little bit different, but what’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.’
YIKES! Be very scared!”
Eschenbach shows how tiny and brief this sudden rise is and discusses how NASA-JPL data disagrees with NOAA satellite data and the University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group data. He shows that in the past, NOAA had improperly spliced two datasets together without a control period to establish that they measured the same thing the same way. He updates that work and shows the latest claims are contradicted by tidal gauges.
Eschenbach speculates as to why such sloppy work is produced. He writes:
“My theory is that for decades, they’d predicted a catastrophic sea level rise as an inevitable and very damaging result of “global warming.” Here’s a partial list:
• A 2004 Pentagon analysis warned that major European cities would be underwater by 2020 due to climate change, and that Britain would experience a “Siberian” climate due to the failure of the Gulf Stream
• In 1988 James Hansen said that by 2028 the West Side Highway in New York would be underwater. In 2008, ABC News aired a special suggesting that New York City could be underwater by 2015 due to rising sea levels. Neither one came true.
• In 1988, Maldives environmental officials warned that their island nation would be completely underwater within 30 years (by 2018). The Maldives remain above water and are building resort hotels.
• Media reports and some scientists warned that Pacific coral atolls would be underwater before now due to sea level rise. However, the scientists forgot that Charles Darwin showed that coral atolls are created by sea level rise, not destroyed by it. And studies (e.g., Webb & Kench, 2010) have shown that ~ 80% of the atolls have experienced either a gain or no loss of land area since the 1940s despite rising sea levels.
The problem for the sea level alarmists is that having made so many predictions of oceanic thermageddon from rising sea levels only to see them crash and burn, and now watching the climate grift slowly collapse, they have no choice other than to put their thumb on the scales. As Bill Shakescene remarked, ‘There is a tide in the affairs of men,’ and although these good prognosticators thought the rising sea levels would ‘lead them on to destiny,’ back here in the real world, they are now feeling the tide ebbing out from under their feet and getting very nervous.
There’s an old lawyer’s maxim that says:
“If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell.”
I fear this is just Josh Willis pounding the table and yelling …”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and link under Changing Seas for the importance of the Newlyn tidal gage.
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The Apocalyptic Climate Tale: The USC Marshal School of Business Research published a paper by Judith Curry, former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Harry DeAngelo, a Professor Emeritus of Finance and Business Economics. The Summary states:
“The apocalyptic climate narrative is a seriously misleading propaganda tool and a socially destructive guide for public policy. The narrative radically overstates the risks to humanity of continued global warming, which are manageable, not existential. It prescribes large-scale near-term suppression of fossil-fuel use, while failing to recognize the huge costs that such suppression would inflict on humans because fossil fuels are currently irreplaceable inputs for producing food (via ammonia-based fertilizer), steel, cement, and plastics.
The paper details the flaws in the apocalyptic climate narrative, including why the threat from human- caused climate change is not dire and why urgent suppression of fossil-fuel use would be unwise. We argue that sensible public policies would focus instead on developing a diversified portfolio of energy sources to support greater resilience and flexibility to respond to whatever weather and climate extremes that might occur. We identify nine principles for sensible U.S. public policies toward energy and discuss implications of the flaws in the narrative for investors and their agents.”
On her website Curry asserts that net-zero policies are failing, there are political and moral concerns about fossil fuel suppression which lead to bad energy choices. The paper offers nine principles for US energy policy with three on what should be done and six on what should not be done. It states implications for investors and their agents (such as investment funds). The paper states:
“The upshot is that there is no clear path to a ‘free lunch’ of abnormal investment performance from shorting green investments. The reason is that one simply cannot be sure about whether or when the world will come to broad recognition of the flaws in the narrative.”
The paper concludes with [Boldface in original]:
“5. Bottom line: Sensible alternatives to net-zero policies
The apocalyptic climate narrative is a seriously flawed guide for public policy because it.
(1) radically overstates the risks to humanity of continued global warming, which are manageable, not existential and
(2) prescribes large-scale near-term suppression of fossil-fuel use, while failing to recognize the huge costs that such suppression would inflict on humans because fossil fuels are currently irreplaceable inputs for producing food (via ammonia-based fertilizer), steel, cement, and plastics.
The answers to four key questions provide a compact foundation for a far more sensible template for public policies toward global warming and the use of fossil fuels.
What would happen if the U.S. enforced a net-zero emissions policy? In 2100, according to climate- model projections. Earth’s average temperature would be lower (than it otherwise would be) by less than 0.2°C, which would be undetectable statistically given normal temperature variation. U.S. consumption and production of goods created with steel, cement, and plastics, and of food grown with ammonia-based fertilizer would immediately plummet because of the essential role fossil fuels play in their creation. A sharp decline in the quality of life would surely ensue.
Is it worth it? Is an undetectable reduction in the warming trend worth a huge sacrifice in the quality of life caused by an urgent move to net-zero? According to the apocalyptic climate narrative, the answer is yes because humanity (ostensibly) faces an existential threat from global warming. However, there is no credible evidence of an existential threat from global warming. Nor, indeed, is there evidence of warming- related costs that cannot be addressed by humanity’s resilience and ability to adapt to extreme climates.
Is an aggressive move to net-zero emissions politically feasible? Public policies that enforce an urgent move to net-zero would be especially hard to sell to the U.S. electorate once voters see the costs they would bear. The resistance would almost surely grow stronger as more voters come to realize that, regardless of their personal quality-of-life sacrifices, global warming is predicted to continue because China, India, Russia, Iran, and many other countries have strong incentives to continue to use fossil fuels.
What then should the U.S. do about global warming? We should encourage investment in efforts to find and improve alternatives to fossil fuels and in adaptation to a changing climate. We should not suppress fossil-fuel use because that would impose serious costs while generating no detectable benefits. Such suppression would put the net-zero cart before the horse, which is finding viable alternatives to fossil fuels in the myriad ways they enable humans to live far longer and much higher quality lives than our ancestors did even as recently as 100 years ago.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
It is time for voting on the Annual SEPP’s April Fools Award – the Jackson. The grand prize is a large lump of coal. Last year, the deserving winner of the lump of coal was the US National Science Teaching Association. In 2023, the Association banned the CO2 Coalition from its meeting which the Coalition members paid for and were approved because the CO2 Coalition exhibit pointed out that CO2 is essential for photosynthesis which is the food source of all complex life on Earth.
There are many strong candidates for this dubious honor including leaders of US scientific agencies who signed off on questionable reports on climate change. Get your votes in by June 29 with the reason why you recommend that person for the award. Send your vote to Ken@Sepp.org. If you wish, you will be anonymous. The award will be announced at the 43rd annual meeting of the Doctors for Defensive Preparedness on July 5-6. The decision of the judges is final.
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Number of the Week: 65% of Observed. As stated above, Spencer, Christy and Braswell found that for suburban and urban stations 65% of the observed summertime, daytime warming was due to the Urban Heat Island Effect. Since many of the surface-air temperature measurements are in urban and suburban areas, if their technique is verified, then any danger of global warming from carbon dioxide emissions becomes insignificant. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
The Sun’s Little-Known 100-year “Gleissberg Cycle” is Waking Up
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 8, 2025
Link to paper: Turnover in Gleissberg Cycle Dependence of Inner Zone Proton Flux
By Kalvyn Adams, Space Weather, Mar 2, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024SW004238?campaign=woletoc
From Watts: The resurgence of the Gleissberg Cycle makes a clear prediction for the future: Solar Cycles 26 through 28 should be progressively intense. Solar Cycle 26, peaking in ~2036, would be stronger than current Solar Cycle 25, and so on. The projected maximum of the Gleissberg Cycle is around 2055, aligning more or less with Solar Cycle 28. That cycle could be quite intense.
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
High Resolution Earth Orbital Precession relative to Climate & Weather
By Richard Willoughby, WUWT, May 4, 2025
The daily variation in Earth’s geometric relationship with the sun correlates well with observed temperature trends and also gives some indication of weather extremes from-year-to-year.
The coming changes in Earth’s climate due to precession of the orbit will be far beyond human experience in recorded history. The NH will experience season-to-season difference of 50W/m2 at 60N with increased solar EMR during the NH Heating season and dramatically lower solar EMR during the NH Cooling season.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
A Critique of the Apocalyptic Climate Narrative
By Judith Curry and Harry DeAngelo, Climate Etc. May 7, 2025
Link to paper: A Critique of the Apocalyptic Climate Narrative
By Harry DeAngelo and Judith Curry, USC Marshall School of Business Research Paper Sponsored by iORB, May 1, 2025
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5145310
#LookItUp: Clouds and water vapor
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Link to: Climate and clouds
By Ole Humlum, Climate4You, Accessed May 7, 2025
https://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndClouds.htm
Trends in Historical Daytime Highs in Canada 1888-2017
By Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, Nov 26, 2018 https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/temp_report.pdf
Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023
By Roy W. Spencer, John R. Christy, and William D. Braswell, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Apr 29, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/aop/JAMC-D-23-0199.1/JAMC-D-23-0199.1.xml
Sea Level: NASA Versus NOAA
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, May 5, 2025
Was the Sky Ever Falling? Vacating the Endangerment Finding in an Age of Clarity
Join scientists and economists with a rich history of expertise in climate science and policy as they examine the flawed assumptions, politicized science, and weak statistical foundations that fueled the Endangerment Finding. May 13, 2025, 9:00 pm to 3:15 pm
Press Release Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC.
https://www.heritage.org/climate/event/was-the-sky-ever-falling-vacating-the-endangerment-finding-age-clarity
Climate Change Weekly # 543 —Current Climate Conditions Aren’t Historically Extreme or Unusual, New Research Shows
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, May 8, 2025
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Wildfires are getting deadlier and costlier thanks to climate change: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, May 5, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/5283495-climate-change-wildfires-deaths-smoke-study
Link to paper: Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States
By Beverly E. Law, et al., Nature Communications, Earth & Environment, May 2, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02314-0
Climate change contributed to approximately 15,000 wildfire particulate matter deaths over 15 years with interannual variability ranging from 130 (95% confidence interval: 64, 190) to 5100 (95% confidence interval: 2500, 7500) deaths and a cumulative economic burden of $160 billion.
[SEPP Comment: A statistical study using questionable assumptions. What do the death certificates say?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Net Zero Fades As the Deluded Cling to Its Fantasy
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, May 9, 2025
Will Antarctic Ice Rebound Chill Climate Meltdown Narrative?
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 7, 2025
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/antarctic-ice-climate-change/2025/05/07/id/1209927
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Questioning the Orthodoxy – Alternative Theories
How Climate Works: Upwellings in the Eastern Pacific and Natural Ocean Warming
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 4, 2025
I’m sometimes asked how ocean circulation can naturally cause global warming, with many assuming solar variability or under sea volcanoes to be the indirect immediate cause.
My New Theory of Climate Resilience will focus instead on ocean upwelling dynamics, particularly in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and their modulation by lunar cycles. And I’m thinking in terms of a wind-driven climate.
After Paris!
COP30 can be a turning point in climate fight, says president
By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP) May 8, 2025
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/COP30_can_be_a_turning_point_in_climate_fight_says_president_999.html
Last month, President Xi Jinping said China would not slow its climate efforts and pledged to announce its 2035 commitments before COP30.
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Response of Indian rosewood to extra CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
From the CO2Science Archive:
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report, April 2025
By John Christy and Roy Spencer, et al., Earth System Science Center, UAH, May 4, 2025
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/April2025/202504_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/April2025/202504_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2025/April2025/GTR_202504APR_v1.pdf
Changing Weather
There Is No Trend in Northwest Snowpack for the Past 40 Years
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 5, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/05/there-is-no-trend-in-northwest-snowpack.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades
By Science China Press, Apr 29, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://scitechdaily.com/antarcticas-astonishing-rebound-ice-sheet-grows-for-the-first-time-in-decades
Link to paper: Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land
By Wei Wang, et al., Science China Earth Sciences, Mar 19, 2025
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
From the abstract: . The results indicate that the AIS contribution to GMSL (global mean sea level) rise peaked at 5.99±0.43 mm in February 2020, followed by a mass gain period lasting over three years, ultimately resulting in a total GMSL contribution of 5.10±0.52 mm by the end of 2023.
Antarctic Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Region Sees 100 Billion Tonne Ice Mass Increase
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 7, 2025
Links to paper by Wei Wang et al. immediately above.
Antarctic Ice Sheet Growing Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2025
Links to paper by Wei Wang et al. above.
New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Has Been Increasing Due To Recent Mass Gain
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 5, 2025
Link to paper: The surface mass balance and near-surface climate of the Antarctic
ice sheet in RACMO2.4p1
By Christiaan T. van Dalum, et al., EGUsphere, Preprint, Jan 10, 2025
New Study: 43 Years Of An Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice Trend
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 9, 2025
Link to paper: Variability of sea ice concentration over Antarctica during recent decade
By Sanjeeb Kumar Sahoo, et al., Journal of Earth System Science, December 2024
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386894892_Variability_of_sea_ice_concentration_over_Antarctica_during_recent_decade
From the abstract: The study reveals that there is an increasing annual as well as seasonal trend of SIC [Sea-Ice Concentration] for the period 1979–2022. We compared the SIC trend during the recent decade (2011–2022), showing a decreasing trend, both annual and seasonal, over Antarctica.
There Goes Antarctica
By I & I Editorial Board, May 6, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Is the canary changing its tune?]
New and better Arctic ice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Changing Seas
A Century of Sea Level Measurements at Newlyn, Southwest England
E. Bradshaw, et al., Marine Geodesy, Mar 18, 2026
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01490419.2015.1121175
Changing Earth
Hunga Tonga Over? Global Temps Return To Early 2023 Levels
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, May 7, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/hunga-tonga-over-global-temps-return-early-2023-levels
Lowering Standards
NOAA’s Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 8, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/05/noaas-forecast-model-has-drop-out.html
Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA’s global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.
This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Wrong, The Hill, Climate Driven Corn Insurance Cost Projections Mislead the Public
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Apr 30, 2025
It’s astonishing that The Hill would publish such an article based on shaky, unverified models without at least checking real-world data trends on agricultural productivity and extreme weather. For over four decades, U.S. farmers have thrived even as temperatures have modestly risen. This editorial exemplifies the poor research and blind acceptance of climate alarmism that too often passes for journalism today. Instead of challenging dubious claims, The Hill parrots them, spreading fear and misinformation to the public.
Sorry, PBS, Population Growth and Infrastructure, Not Climate Change, Are Causing Rhode Island’s Water Woes
By Linnea Lueken, Climate realism, May 1, 2025
What Corporate Media Isn’t Telling You About Trump’s Cuts To Decades-Old Energy Efficiency Program
By Ireland Owens, Daily Caller, May 9, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/09/corporate-media-trumps-cuts-decades-old-energy-program
Wrong, Phys.org, Climate Change Isn’t Causing a Rise in Lost School Days
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 6, 2025
This [Phys.org] article is a textbook example of shoddy research dressed up as urgent policy insight. By stretching an already weak climate claim—about worsening cyclones—into an even more tenuous social consequence—missed school days—it commits the cardinal sin of science: drawing sweeping conclusions from flimsy, cherry-picked evidence.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Hottest Start To May?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2025
Virtually every day has been in the top half of the 1961-90 distribution, but none have broken through the ceiling.
Dominance
By Chuan Wang, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 11, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114641
From abstract: By 2100, compared to 1981, the results project global increases in SD frequency by more than 3-fold and 4-fold under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively.
[SEPP Comment: Forecasting using models that fail testing.]
Even as emissions level off, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing faster than ever. Here’s why
By Issy Borley, Cathy Trudinger, and Ray Langenfeld, The Conservation, May 8, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://theconversation.com/even-as-emissions-level-off-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-is-growing-faster-than-ever-heres-why-254072
Carbon dioxide is very good at trapping heat. Over the Earth’s 4.5 billion years, pulses of CO₂ have created hothouse worlds, very different to the pleasant climate humans have enjoyed since the last ice age, about 11,000 years ago.
[SEPP Comment: Based on cherry-picking short time periods, not using full datasets. Emission levels from China and South Asia are not leveling- off.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
New and worse climate scenarios
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
An intellectually honest analysis would put realistic emission scenarios into the models. But of course then the resulting warming would be mild and nothing alarming and, ahem, no use to the cause, so those scenarios got shelved early on and the storeroom was triple-locked. Eventually people started detecting the unpleasant savor of RCP8.5 in every dish, so then the modeling crowd did a switcheroo to so-called SSP scenarios. Unfortunately, they were the same ingredients, just relabeled from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Clever, huh?
Narrative Based Evidence Making`
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, May 4, 2025
New and better computer models
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
“The notion of a ‘point of no return’ in global warming is a chilling concept. It suggests a threshold beyond which climate change effects might become irreversible. Scientists warn that if global temperatures rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we could enter a phase of runaway climate change….”
[SEPP Comment: Sailing off the edge of the earth?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
60% are skeptics: Only 13% of UK voters say Net Zero is more important than cost of living
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 9, 2025
The point of most polls is not to tell the Blob what the people want, it’s to tell the people what The Blob wants.
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Politico’s “Hit Piece” on Me and Energy Secretary Wright
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, May 7, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Fundamental Pillars Of Democracy
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 6, 2025
Link to article: ACLU: The Rule of Law Is Non-Negotiable | Opinion
By Amol Sinha, Executive Director, ACLU of New Jersey, May 1, 2025
https://www.newsweek.com/aclu-rule-law-non-negotiable-opinion-2066771
From Heller: The ACLU says “climate protections” and DEI are “fundamental pillars of our free and democratic society.”
Scientists just found a way to break through climate apathy
In a field of muddy results, it’s among the clearest findings that one cognitive scientist has seen in his career.
By Kate Yoder, Grist, May 5, 2025
https://grist.org/science/break-through-climate-apathy-data-visualization-lake-freezing-study
The climate stripes visual was recently updated to reflect that 2024 was the hottest year on record,
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Suffer the Little Children
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant.org, May 7, 2025
Last of 3 parts. From Part I: Ever wonder what your kids are really being taught in schools about renewables and Net Zero? Become a member of the on-line lesson provider Cool.org and find out. Here’s my little scenario, inspired by Cool’s true classroom materials[1]:
Part II: A Green Kid is a Programmed Kid
Part I: A Jet Jockey’s Little Green Schoolkids
Why is the renewables industry allowed to sponsor political advertising in schools and call it “education”?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 7, 2025
Programming and “pre-bunking” our children to vote Green — Boosting profits for years to come!
The program does specifically mention John Clauser, the Nobel prize winning skeptic who they say “spreads misinformation”.
[SEPP Comment: See essays by Tony Thomas immediately above.]
Questioning European Green
Peston’s power trick
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, May 9, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/pestons-power-trick
There has been a concerted campaign in recent weeks to convince the public that current high electricity prices are mostly a function of high gas prices. This argument is entirely incorrect.
The Hidden Cost Of Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 3, 2025
Link to: Accredited official statistics – Energy Trends: UK electricity
Data on electricity generation, supply, consumption and fuel use for generation.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Texas Senate passes bill requiring solar plants to provide power at night
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, May 9, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/5292792-texas-senate-bill-power-cost
The Texas Senate passed a bill Thursday that leading business interests fear would lead to an age of expensive power and rolling blackouts.
If passed by the House, state S.B. 715 would require all renewable projects — even existing ones — to buy backup power, largely from coal or gas plants.
[SEPP Comment: There is storage, which greens claim is cheap.]
The Renewable Energy Trap: A Warning to Nations Pursuing Blind Sustainability
By Terry L. Headley, Real Clear Energy, May 05, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/05/the_renewable_energy_trap_a_warning_to_nations_pursuing_blind_sustainability_1108269.html
Green Jobs
Made in America: 440,000 Arguments for the IRA
By Stephanie Searle, Real Clear Energy, May 06, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/06/made_in_america_440000_arguments_for_the_ira_1108584.html
But at least in part because of uncertainty around the future of the IRA, a $1 billion factory in Georgia and a $1.2 billion factory in Arizona that would have made batteries and components have been cancelled. Those aren’t jobs we can afford to lose, especially now that other economic indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.
Stephanie Searle is Chief Program Officer at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
The Political Games Continue
In trying to be a small target, the Liberals accidentally disappeared
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 6, 2025
There is no free speech in climate science. Just ask Peter Ridd. The Liberals were in government for all of that time, but they kept funding the universities that silenced whistleblowers. Then they wonder why they get stuck in stupid science traps and embarrassed in election debates. There are no working professors of science in Australia that can speak up to advise or defend them. No one paid to audit the IPCC. No one paid to find out the solar role in our climate.
Litigation Issues
Coalition of GOP attorneys general celebrate win against California’s clean-truck rule
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, May 6, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/5286017-republicans-california-clean-truck-rule
Puerto Rico Ditches Billion-Dollar Climate Lawsuit Following Trump’s Blue State Crackdown
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 5, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/05/puerto-rico-drops-billion-dollar-climate-lawsuit-trump-doj
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
A Pollution Tariff Would Close China’s Trade Loopholes
By Robert C. O’Brien, Real Clear Energy, May 7, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/07/a_pollution_tariff_would_close_chinas_trade_loopholes_1108783.html
[SEPP Comment: Is the essay a subtle argument for a tax on carbon dioxide?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Section 45X: The IRA Manufacturing Tax Credit Must Survive
By The Editors, Real Clear Energy, May 8, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/08/section_45x_the_ira_manufacturing_tax_credit_must_survive_1109091.html
Dale Vince Says Ecotricity Has Received ‘Net Zero’ in State Subsidies, but His Definition of ‘Subsidies’ is a Little Narrow
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, May 5, 2025
EPA and other Regulators on the March
‘Absolute Silliness’: DOE Delays Biden-Era Rule On Emissions
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 6, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/06/absolute-silliness-doe-delays-biden-era-rule-emissions
The Department of Energy (DOE) announced Monday that it is postponing the implementation of a Biden-era rule that would limit fossil fuel usage in federal buildings.
The move is one of many that aim to forward the administration’s goal of prioritizing domestic energy efficiency over climate change regulations
LPO Can Be Critical Asset for U.S. Energy Security, Economic Growth, and Industrial Resurgence
By Pinar Cebi Wilber, Real Clear Energy, May 02, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/02/lpo_can_be_critical_asset_for_us_energy_security_economic_growth_and_industrial_resurgence_1107869.html
The Loan Programs Office (LPO)
Trump reinstating commercial fishing in northeast marine monument
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 9, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5293033-trump-reinstating-commercial-fishing-in-northeast-marine-monument
The national monument was established by former President Obama to protect deep-sea canyons with unique ecosystems. The administration said at the time that these ecosystems are significantly impacted by climate change.
Energy Issues – Non-US
Dave Edwards’ Post
By Engineer Dave Edwards, Linked In, Accessed May 10, 2025 [H/t Robert Bradley Jr.]
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dave-edwards-f172_inertia-energy-electricity-activity-7323934292361809920-GA_4?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAGV90kBtoxOIMAg-JwpHsSY2-j34xhgcC8
U.S. Electricity From Fossils Fuels Dips Below 50% for the First Time Ever
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, May 5, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Electricity-From-Fossils-Fuels-Dips-Below-50-for-the-First-Time-Ever.html
For investors, utilities, and policymakers, the message is clear: the momentum behind clean electricity is real. Those who prepare for this transition—by investing in clean infrastructure, modernizing the grid, and rethinking electricity markets—will be best positioned for the energy system of tomorrow.
[SEPP Comment: The transition is built on massive subsidies. Remove the subsidies and how much will vanish?]
EXCLUSIVE: Britain Forced to Spend £1.5 Billion to Mitigate Wind Turbine Corruptions to Vital Air Defence Radar
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, May 8, 2025
Britain’s offshore wind farms are a clear and present danger to vital air defences, with the Labour Government forced to spend an astonishing £1.5 billion in the next two years to try to guarantee the integrity of the country’s early warning radar network.
Energy Issues – Iberian Peninsula
Energy Consumption in 2024 and the Spanish Power Failure
By Andy May, WUWT, May 8, 2025
Casting blame for the blackout in Spain, Portugal, and parts of France
By Russ Schussler (Planning Engineer), Climate Etc., May 5, 2025th
Devastating blackout in Spain raises questions about reliance on solar power, wind power
By Anthony Blair, New York Post, Apr 30, 2025
https://nypost.com/2025/04/30/world-news/spanish-government-forced-to-deny-blackouts-were-due-to-solar-power
A “rare atmospheric phenomenon” was blamed for causing Monday’s unprecedented blackouts, according to REN, Portugal’s grid operator.
But no “unusual meteorological or atmospheric phenomena” or temperature fluctuations were recorded at weather stations at the time of the blackouts, Spain’s meteorological agency AEMET said on Tuesday.
Energy Issues — US
More than 100 fired from National Renewable Energy Lab
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 6, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5286305-national-renewable-energy-lab-employees-fired
Without Energy Abundance, America Loses the AI Race
Yes, today’s energy policy decisions really matter.
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, May 02, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/02/without_energy_abundance_america_loses_the_ai_race_1107573.htm
This policy failure in Washington and states such as California and New York over the past few years has produced predicable results: reliability problems, with power outages more than doubling since 2016, and electricity prices climbing to painful levels in states that restrict energy options.
Unlocking America’s Energy Potential: A Blueprint for Prosperity and Security
By Anne Bradbury, Real Clear Energy, May 8, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/08/unlocking_americas_energy_potential_a_blueprint_for_prosperity_and_security_1109121.html
For over a century, the U.S. tax code has allowed oil and natural gas producers to deduct intangible drilling costs (IDCs) in the year they’re incurred, a practice known “accelerated cost-recovery” or immediate expensing.
Due to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), U.S. independent producers are no longer treated like every capital-intensive industry under the tax code. Instead, IDCs are subject to depletion deductions over the life of the asset, which can be 20 years or more. This is despite IDCs making up 80% of the costs to explore, develop and drill new wells – including wages, repairs, supplies, fuel, and surveying – with most of these expenses going to workforce and labor.
Congress Should Keep California From Dictating Environmental Rules To The Whole Country
By: Michael A. Fragoso, The Federalist, May 6, 2025
https://thefederalist.com/2025/05/06/congress-should-keep-california-from-dictating-environmental-rules-to-the-whole-country
Repealing Biden-era California waivers is an appropriate exercise of congressional powers against executive misinterpretation of the law.
Clean Energy Isn’t a Handout—It’s America’s Industrial Strategy
By Neil Z. Auerbach, Real Clear Energy, May 05, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/05/05/the_luddites_are_coming_for_clean_energy_1108250.html
The Luddites Are Coming for Clean Energy
Similarly, the Journal’s editorial board today seems to fear the technologies reshaping energy. By deriding the IRA’s clean-energy credits as “handouts” and “entitlements,” they are tearing a page from the Luddite playbook and doing a disservice to Republicans and all Americans. In truth, these incentives are not wasteful subsidies—they are the linchpin of America’s 21st-century race for energy dominance.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Trump overturns Biden-era efficiency rules for household and commercial appliances
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 9, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5293104-trump-signs-legislation-rolling-back-biden-efficiency-rules
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The first SMR, Small Modular Reactor, in the US is under construction near the Permian Basin, the largest oil field in the US
A whiff of irony is in the air.
By Ed Ireland, Thoughts About Energy and Economics, May 05, 2025
https://edireland.substack.com/p/the-first-smr-small-modular-reactor?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=929169&post_id=162907064&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=8t843&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
The Rise of the First SMR in the US: A New Chapter in Pragmatic Energy Innovation
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 7, 2025
In contrast to the typical parade of government grants and green subsidies, this SMR project is being bankrolled the old-fashioned way: through private capital, particularly from the oil patch itself.
A glowing account
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Even the worst accident in the U.S., at Three Mile Island, was harmless except to the industry’s reputation and growth. And the Soviet accident at Chernobyl was, or should have been, an indictment of Soviet planning not of nuclear energy in theory. (Their hospitals were awful too.) As people may finally be realizing, if they even remember either incident.
Google Accused of Greenwashing Massive AI Energy Consumption
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 8, 2025
Accused of signing zero carbon nuclear deals with no timeline, scanty details.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Recycling money
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Especially as the article it links to concedes that solar panels are a major environmental hazard. Indeed, it states frankly that “Each time a hurricane batters Florida, the country’s second-largest market for solar energy, broken panels pile up in landfills.” Which seems to combine unreliability and pollution in one big ugly pile (and we can’t help noticing that hurricanes tend not to smash up gas-fired or nuclear plants).
Wind power’s eagle-kill permits are a deadly failure, so permitting must stop
By David Wojick, CFACT, May 5, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/05/05/wind-powers-eagle-kill-permits-are-a-deadly-failure-so-permitting-must-stop
About 15 years ago, the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) determined that the Golden Eagle population could not withstand an increase in human caused mortality. But there was a great queue of proposed wind projects that wanted FWS permits to kill these eagles under the Eagle Protection Act, which would certainly increase the kill rate.
In response, the FWS created an offset program in which eagle deaths due to power pole electrocution would supposedly be reduced by an amount equal to the increased deaths due to wind turbines. We now know that this offset program has completely failed as there has been no reduction in electrocution deaths.
Orsted Cancels Hornsea 4 Wind Farm – and Kills Miliband’s ‘Clean Power 2030’ Agenda Dead
By David Turver, The Daily Sceptic, May 7, 2025
Orsted’s statement comes just a day after Ed Miliband announced the results of his consultation into Contracts for Difference (CfDs) for Allocation Round 7 (AR7) and committed to changes to deliver more offshore wind capacity.
[SEPP Comment: According to the graph, about 15,000 MW of nameplate capacity has been installed since 2009 in the UK and 50,000 MW called for by 2030.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Pilot project seeks to fix Achilles’ heel of geothermal power
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, May 8, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5288324-pilot-project-geothermal-energy-california
On Thursday, the Oklahoma City-based GreenFire Energy announced it had restored new life to a defunct well in the Geysers, the world’s largest geothermal power station — and one that has been in a state of slow, decades-long collapse.
Today, the Geysers plants use an average of 15 million gallons — 22 Olympic pools — per day. The complex’s 18 power plants, spread across 45 miles, tap into the source in the form of the steam that spins their turbines.
Rather than spinning a turbine with the physical force of superheated water — which is then lost to the atmosphere — GreenFire’s team circulates water in a closed loop to restore production.
Biomass: The Green Energy Debate We Need To Have
By Lars Schernikau, WUWT, May 6, 2025
Is biomass really the climate hero it claims to be?
We’ve been told it is clean, renewable, and part of the solution. But dig a little deeper, and the picture gets a little murkier.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Drax Pull Cruachan 2, In Another Blow To Mad Miliband’s Net Zero Plans
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2025
[SEPP Comment: A pumped storage facility.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Good money after green
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 7, 2025
Parliament EV Chargers To Be Removed For Safety Reasons
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 3, 2025
One rule for them and let the rest of us burn!
EV Sales Stuck At 20%
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2025
EV sales remain stuck around the 20% mark, way short the government’s target of 28% for the year.
It’s hard to see what carmakers can do to lift the EVs back to ZEV target levels.
Carbon Schemes
STEVE MILLOY: Congress Must Repeal All Green New Scam Subsidies
By Steve Milloy, Daily Caller, May 4, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/04/opinion-congress-must-repeal-all-green-new-scam-subsidies-steve-milloy
None of this carbon capture and sequestration activity is meaningful to the climate. At best, it would amount to roughly 114 million tons of emissions captured and stored by 2031. Over that time period, global emissions will be on the order of 420 billion tons. That latter amount is about 3,700 times more emissions than the relatively trivial amount of emissions the oil industry would be paid $8 billion to capture.
California Dreaming
Contributor: The high cost of California’s green energy policies
By Joel Kotkin, LA Times, May 7, 2025 [H/t Jim Buell]
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2025-05-07/california-gavin-newsom-renewables
Los Angeles Slaps Climate Alarmists with Budget Reality — Cue the Outrage Meltdown
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 5, 2025
Saving California’s Rural Water Users
By Edward Ring, What’s Current?, Accessed May 7, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7860275?e=cd9fa89d1e
Despite its status as an agricultural superpower, eclipsing every other U.S. state in farm output, California’s farming sector wields relatively little influence in Sacramento. When you evaluate the state’s GDP components, the sectors that dominate are financial, IT, and services, at around a half-trillion each, followed by manufacturing and government at around $400 billion and $300 billion, respectively. Against that economic power, the value of California’s agricultural output – loosely estimated somewhere around $60 billion – is a rounding error.
Environmental Industry
A Green and Pleasant Land
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2025
Talking of the Conservative Environment Network, they want Britain to be a “green and pleasant land again”:
Apparently, they plan to do that by plastering the countryside with wind turbines and solar panels:
[SEPP Comment: “Net zero is a conservative mission”??]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Scientists Who Want To Play At Being God
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2025
Link to: Exploring Climate Cooling
Motivated by the possibility of encountering damaging climate tipping points, and backed by £56.8m, this programme aims to transparently explore – under rigorous oversight – whether any climate cooling approaches that have been proposed as potential options to delay or avert such tipping points could ever be feasible, scalable, and safe.
By Staff, ARIA (The Advanced Research + Invention Agency), Accessed May 9, 2025
https://www.aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/future-proofing-our-climate-and-weather/exploring-climate-cooling
“Created by an Act of Parliament, and sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology, ARIA funds breakthrough R&D in underexplored areas to catalyse new paths to prosperity for the UK and the world.”
Sun-Dimming Quango has £800 Million of Taxpayer Money to Blow – and a CEO on £450k
By Sallust, The Daily Sceptic, May 8, 2025
See link immediately above.
The secretive government unit planning to dim the sun
By Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph, May 8, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/secretive-quango-planning-dim-sun-060200109.html
This week, we learnt it will spend £56.8 million on 21 “climate cooling” projects, which include looking into the logistics of building a “sun shade” in space and injecting plumes of salt water into the sky to reflect sunlight away from Earth.
Climate change is causing South Africa to rise and sink at the same time
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 8, 2025
Link to paper: GNSS Observations of the Land Uplift in South Africa: Implications for Water Mass Loss
By Christian A. Mielk, JGR Solid Earth, Apr 9, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JB030350
From abstract: Continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) base stations in South Africa show a spatially coherent vertical displacement. While one hypothesis attributes this vertical motion to crustal deformation from mantle flow and dynamic topography (Hammond et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022355), we propose an alternative explanation. Our evidence suggests that land water loss from multiple droughts is a major driver of the observed uplift. In this study, we analyze daily Global Positioning System (GPS) height time series from 2000 to 2021.
From Nova: Even though no model can predict rainfall, everyone reading the tea-leaves, and editing newspapers, can see that climate change caused the drought.
Putting The Alarmist Spin On The Earth’s Rotation
By Willia Eschenbach, WUWT, May 4, 2025
An Inconvenient Truth
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 5, 2025
Al Gore’s sci-fi flick was released in May 2006. Sea ice extent at both poles is higher now than it was in May 2006
100% Wind By 2030
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 9, 2025
[In 2020] Boris Johnson said UK homes would be 100% wind powered by 2030. The UK is currently getting 7% of their electricity from wind.
ARTICLES
New York and New Jersey Need Natural Gas
Politicians can no longer afford to give in to those who oppose every new pipeline proposal.
By Mark Longo, WSJ, May 9, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/new-york-and-new-jersey-need-natural-gas-pipeline-trump-ed8a3f07?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
TWTW Summary: The Director of Engineers-Labor Employer Cooperative Local 825 in New Jersey begins with:
“President Trump’s plan to kick-start the 124-mile Constitution Pipeline between Pennsylvania and New York is a much-needed breath of fresh air for energy customers in the Northeast. Natural gas prices soared in New York over the winter, with many parts of the state seeing rates close to $20 per million British thermal units in January and February. In Pennsylvania, by contrast, prices averaged just over $3 per million Btus. That price difference is a function of New York’s misguided environmental policies.
Neighboring New Jersey’s policies are no better. Environmentalists in the Garden and Empire states have been steadfast in opposing any new pipelines even as prices for consumers and businesses have steadily risen.
New York consumes a lot of natural gas. Yet a longstanding ban on fracking has put the vast reserves of the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations in the western part of the state off limits. As a result, New York must import its natural gas from other parts of the country and from Canada. Environmental activists try to make this as hard as possible.
In 2016, a coalition of state and local officials, community activists and environmental groups in New York and Massachusetts effectively blocked the construction of the Northeast Energy Direct Pipeline, which would have brought natural gas from Pennsylvania through New York to New England. The following year, a federal court upheld New York’s authority to block the proposed Constitution project to supply the Albany area, where it would have connected to existing pipelines serving New England. In 2019, New York and New Jersey both rejected the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project, a 17-mile-long expansion of an existing pipeline that would have delivered natural gas from Pennsylvania to New York City. Since 2017, the Garden State has taken nearly 5 gigawatts of power off the grid at a time when energy demand has been increasing dramatically.
Politicians in Albany and Trenton are all-in on the idea that new natural-gas pipelines are incompatible with the fight against climate change.”
The author gives additional examples of politicians opposing natural gas pipelines then concludes with:
“New York and New Jersey can’t generate enough electricity to power homes and businesses without natural gas. Only about 5% of New Jersey’s single-family homes have heat pumps. The new goal is 65% of all homes by 2040 (3.9 million homes) which means installations will have to increase dramatically. But as electricity prices continue to soar—average residential retail electric utility bills are expected to increase by about 20% this year due to increased rates and increased usage—switching to heat pumps becomes uneconomical. Since neither New York nor New Jersey is likely to approve new nuclear power plants, natural gas is the only option.
Both states’ green dreams have collided with physical and economic realities. Addressing the increased demand for electricity requires a two-pronged strategy. For New York, it means ending the ban on fracking. For New York and New Jersey, it means allowing the construction of new pipelines. Doing so would deliver much-needed relief to consumers throughout the region, especially those with low incomes, and promote economic growth.”
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