Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2025
Posted on 22 May 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Shifting Gears in a Shifting Climate: Birds Adjust Migration Speed in Response to Spring Vegetation Green-Up, Amaral et al., Diversity and Distributions
Our results have direct implications for the conservation of migratory bird diversity in Eastern North America. While birds show some plasticity in adjusting migration pace, this flexibility has limits—particularly when green-up occurs unusually early. Coupled with the slow pace of climate change mitigation through policy and behaviour, migratory birds face constrained options. Mismatches between migration timing and peak resource availability at stopover and breeding sites may reduce reproductive success and survival (Youngflesh et al. 2023). Conservation efforts should therefore prioritise the protection and management of key stopover habitats that allow birds to adjust their pace en route and buffer against phenological mismatches (Mehlman et al. 2005). High-quality and abundant stopover sites can support timely arrivals at breeding grounds by providing birds with the resources needed to either resume migration quickly or pause until conditions are favourable.
Funding for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation (grants EF 1703048 and EF 2033263 to D.A.W.M. and M.W.T.).
Shifts in avian migration phenologies do not compensate for changes to conditions en route in spring and fall, Adams et al., Ecology
If the phenologies of birds, plants, and insects shift asynchronously in response to changing climates, then birds may encounter reduced resource availability during migration. We estimated spring and fall 10%, 50%, and 90% cumulative migratory passage dates at 53 weather surveillance radar stations across the US Central Flyway. We determined which conditions (temperature, timing of green-up and dormancy, relative humidity, and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) explained annual variation in migration phenologies. We also described decadal trends in environmental conditions and whether shifts in migration phenologies were sufficient to compensate for these changes. Annual changes to spring migration phenologies were best explained by anomalies in temperature, with earlier passage in warmer years. Fall migration occurred later on warmer, more humid years with higher EVI and later dormancy. Long-term adjustments in bird migration phenologies did not mitigate their exposure to changing environmental conditions. Although passage dates for all spring migration quantiles advanced significantly (~0.6 days/decade), temperatures on spring 10% passage dates increased, while 50% and 90% passage occurred closer to green-up. In the fall, temperatures increased on 50% and 90% passage dates. By contrast, the advancement of 10% passage (~1 day/decade) prevented early migrants from experiencing the cooling late-summer temperature trend. Warmer temperatures in mid to late fall may lead to earlier fruiting phenology and asynchronies with migratory passage, which occurred later in warmer years. Changes in temperature and land surface phenophases experienced by migrants suggest that resource availability during migration has changed and that adjustments to migration phenologies have not compensated for the effects of changing climates.
This research was funded by the NASA Biological Diversity program number 80NSSC21K114.
Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades, John et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science:
Intense winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) generate surface ocean cooling in their wakes, which can persist for several weeks in their aftermath. While multi-decadal observations of the sea surface have shown a substantial warming of the ocean, long-term changes in cold wake recovery time remain largely unknown. Here we find a trend toward faster recovery of TC cold wakes in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) since 2001. This is due primarily to a decrease in the strength of the North Atlantic trade winds, which reduces evaporative cooling of the ocean. The faster damping of TC cold wakes has led to a significant increase in the intensification of subsequent TCs that encounter lingering wakes from prior TCs, with a magnitude that is about 9% of that from long-term warming of the ocean. Finally, earth system model simulations indicate that the observed decrease in the cold wake recovery time will likely continue into the future.
This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling (WACCEM) project and as part of the RGMA program area through the collaborative, multiprogram Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project. The research used computational resources from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. DOE User Facility supported by the Office of Science under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for U.S. DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. G.F. was supported by base funds to NOAA/AOML’s Physical Oceanography Division.
Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands, Jiang et al., Nature Communications:
Accelerating energy transition towards renewables is central to net-zero emissions. However, building a global power system dominated by solar and wind energy presents immense challenges. Here, we demonstrate the potential of a globally interconnected solar-wind system to meet future electricity demands. We estimate that such a system could generate ~3.1 times the projected 2050 global electricity demand. By optimizing solar-wind deployment, storage capacity, and trans-regional transmission, the solar-wind penetration could be achieved using only 29.4% of the highest potential, with a 15.6% reduction in initial investment compared to a strategy without interconnection. Global interconnection improves energy efficiency, mitigates the variability of renewable energy, promotes energy availability, and eases the economic burden of decarbonization. Importantly, this interconnected system shows remarkable resilience to climate extremes, generation outages, transmission disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts. Our findings underscore the potential of global interconnection in enabling high renewable penetration and guiding sustainable energy transitions.
Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C, Schuster et al., Nature Climate Change
Exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels has become a distinct possibility, yet the consequences of such an overshoot for mountain glaciers and their contribution to raising sea levels and impacting water availability are not well understood. Here we show that exceeding and then returning to below 1.5 °C will have irreversible consequences for glacier mass and runoff over centuries. Global climate and glacier simulations project that a 3.0 °C peak-and-decline scenario will lead to 11% more global glacier mass loss by 2500 compared with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshooting. In basins where glaciers regrow after peak temperature, glacier runoff reduces further than if the glaciers stabilize, a phenomenon we call ‘trough water’. Half the studied glaciated basins show reduced glacier runoff with overshoot compared with without for decades to centuries after peak warming. These findings underscore the urgency of near-term emissions reductions and limiting temperature overshoot.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Decades of Deceit. The Case Against Major Fossil Fuel Companies for Climate Fraud and Damages, Merner et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
Dozens of states, counties, cities, and tribes across the United States and its territories are currently suing major fossil fuel companies for fraud, climate damages, or racketeering. The authors assess the wealth of documentary evidence behind these lawsuits, including recently released internal corporate documents. The evidence could hardly be clearer: For decades these companies possessed detailed and accurate knowledge about the dangers their products pose to the global climate and understood that climate action would threaten their business models. Yet they planned, funded, and continue to engage in a campaign to profit from the planet’s destruction by deceiving the public and blocking climate action.
A majority of registered voters want federal agencies to increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warmin, Fine et al., Yale University and George Mason University
The authors asked Americans how much federal agencies such as the CDC, the NIH, and FEMA should do to protect people from health problems related to global warming. A majority of registered voters (55%) said federal agencies should do more than they are currently doing to protect people from the health harms of global warming. 20% of registered voters said agencies should continue to do the same amount, and 15% said they should decrease their efforts. Taken together, 75% of registered voters want federal agencies to maintain or increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming. Overall, a majority of registered voters (55%) said federal agencies should increase their efforts to protect people from health problems related to global warming, outnumbering those who said federal agencies should decrease these efforts (15%) by more than 3 to 1. An additional 20% of registered voters said agencies should do about the same amount as they are doing now.
156 articles in 67 journals by 877 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Chemistry–climate feedback of atmospheric methane in a methane-emission-flux-driven chemistry–climate model, Stecher et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-5133-2025
Estimation of the Uncertainty in Daytime Cirrus Cloud Radiative Forcing and Heating Rates due to Ice Crystal Optics, Dolinar et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0065.1
Higher warming rate in global arid regions driven by decreased ecosystem latent heat under rising vapor pressure deficit from 1981 to 2022, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110622
Soil Drying Intensification Increases the Connection Between Dry and Hot Extremes in a Changing Climate, Qing & Wang Alizadeh, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005151
Observations of climate change, effects
Climate change-induced amplification of extreme temperatures in large lakes, Abdelhady et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02341-x
Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades, John et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5
Fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change detected in long-term western North American fire weather trends, Queen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02372-4
Intensification of Heat Extremes in Southeast Asia: Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Temperature Trends and Heat Events (1940–2023), Amnuaylojaroen, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8907
No Robust Sign of Human Influence in the Unprecedented Atmospheric Circulation of Summer 2018 Over Northern Europe, Iles et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006290
Non-uniform climatic responses of land surface phenology derived from optical-, fluorescence-, and microwave-based satellite observations, Qu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114793
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
On the Determination of GCOS ECV Product Requirements for Climate Applications, Roebeling et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0123.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models, Jucker et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.5010
Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate, Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59737-8
Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot, Steinert et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005787
Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system, Maclennan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x
The effects of climate change on the thermal stratification of the Gulf of Oman, Farkhani & Zaker, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101560
Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain, Reyniers et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-2113-2025
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
On the Importance of Learning Non-Local Dynamics for Stable Data-Driven Climate Modeling: A 1D Gravity Wave-QBO Testbed, Pahlavan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114136
Unraveling the coupled HighResMIP-CMIP6 models resolution impacts in present climate and future projections of water availability over South America, da Silva et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1537081
Cryosphere & climate change
Arctic Atmospheric Rivers in a Changing Climate and the Impacts on Sea Ice, Thaker et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042521
Current reversal leads to regime change in the Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the 21st century, Jin et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-1873-2025
How do extreme ENSO events affect Antarctic surface mass balance?, Macha et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3425
Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C, Schuster et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
Local Drivers of Antarctic Spring Sea Ice Retreat, Himmich et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114764
SWOT Observations Over Sea Ice: A First Look, Kacimi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116079
Sea level & climate change
Downstream Hydrology Reduces Glaciers’ Direct Contribution to Sea-Level Rise, Rounce et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114866
Near-Term Future Sea-Level Projections Supported by Extrapolation of Tide-Gauge Observations, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112940
Sea level reconstruction reveals improved separations of regional climate and trend patterns over the last seven decades, Wang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-251
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Earth’s climatic past illuminates future South Asian monsoon patterns, Pausata & Tharammal, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01340-4
Past warm intervals inform the future South Asian summer monsoon, He et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-08956-6
The Hydroclimate and Environmental Response to Middle Miocene Warming in the Southwestern USA: Stable Isotope Evidence, Spaur et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2024pa005056
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Adaptation and gene flow are insufficient to rescue a montane plant under climate change, Anderson et al., Science 10.1126/science.adr1010
All the light we cannot see: Climate manipulations leave short and long-term imprints in spectral reflectance of trees, Stefanski et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70048
Carbon dynamics under loss and restoration scenarios in the world’s largest seagrass meadow, Moritsch et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-01993-1
Climate change alters the radial growth responses of P. schrenkiana and J. jarkendensis to climate extremes in the Eastern Pamirs, Yang et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126362
Climate Change-Driven Heatwaves Pose Lethal Risks to Newborn Forest Bats, Russo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71350
Climate sensitivity of Quercus macranthera Fisch. & C. A. Mey. at the high-elevation forest edge of the Alborz Mountains, N Iran, Moradi et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126358
Climate-Driven Warming Disrupts the Symbiosis of Bobtail Squid Euprymna scolopes and the Luminous Bacterium Vibrio fischeri, Otjacques et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70243
Coastal seawater turbidity and thermal stress control growth of reef-building Porites spp. corals in Fiji, Samperiz et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-02283-6
Diatom shifts and limnological changes in a Siberian boreal lake: a multiproxy perspective on climate warming and anthropogenic air pollution, Stieg et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2327-2025
Effect of nutrient enrichment and climate change on historical changes of the cyanobacterial community in a shallow north temperate lake in China, Li et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100460
Effects of marine heatwaves on primary and secondary production in macroalgae-amphipod systems, Ferreira et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107231
Evolution of warming tolerance alters physiology and life history traits in zebrafish, Andreassen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02332-y
Future Climate Shifts for Vegetation on Australia’s Coastal Islands, Coleman et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70220
Growing Season Lengthens in a North American Deciduous Woody Community From 1993 to 2021, Augspurger & Zaya, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71226
Host tree impact on Lymantria species under CO2 and temperature changes, Dvo?áková et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1564011
Individual clown anemonefish shrink to survive heat stress and social conflict, Versteeg et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adt7079
Macro- and Micro-Climate-Controlled Impacts of Heatwave With Drought on the Autumn Phenology of a Subtropical Forest Ecosystem, Zhou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg008812
Multiscale effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on vegetation dynamics in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area, Tang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1574870
Non-uniform climatic responses of land surface phenology derived from optical-, fluorescence-, and microwave-based satellite observations, Qu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114793
Range size and abundance dynamics of Japanese breeding birds over 40 years suggest a potential crisis in warm areas, Yamaura et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-01382-8
Shifting Gears in a Shifting Climate: Birds Adjust Migration Speed in Response to Spring Vegetation Green-Up, Amaral et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70033
Shifts in avian migration phenologies do not compensate for changes to conditions en route in spring and fall, Adams et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70110
Stunned by a Heatwave: Experimental Heatwaves Alter Juvenile Responsiveness to the Threat of Predation, Breedveld et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71447
Tropical Forest Soil Microbiome Modulates Leaf Heat Tolerance More Strongly Under Warming Than Ambient Conditions, Hernandes Villani et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71425
Vertical climate velocity adds a critical dimension to species shifts, Gruenburg et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02300-6
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Coastal methane emissions triggered by ship passages, Nylund et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02344-8
Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Water Vapor Fluxes From Subtropical Brackish Fishponds: Temporal Variability, Environmental Drivers, and Implications for Nature-Based Climate Solutions, Liu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005277
Generally Reduced Sink Capacity of Upland Soils for Atmospheric Methane Over the Past Three Decades (1993–2022), Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70248
Global Terrestrial Carbon Storage Change Affected by Future Land Dynamics Under Social-Climate Scenarios, Chen et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005873
High-resolution greenhouse gas flux inversions using a machine learning surrogate model for atmospheric transport, Dadheech et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2918
Moisture–Microbial Interaction Amplifies N2O Emission Hot Moments Under Deepened Snow in Grasslands, Liu & Luo, 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7905
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The Unaccounted Oceanic Sink of Anthropogenic Nitrous Oxide and Its Relationship With Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide, de la Paz et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008417
Vulnerability of whole-soil carbon in a future warmer world, Zhu & Davis, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00677-8
Warming promotes soil carbon sequestration in the Tianshan Mountains, Zheng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104892
Wetland Restoration Is Effective but Insufficient to Compensate for Soil Organic Carbon Losses From Degradation, Wu et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70063
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Carbon Capture for Decarbonizing Ship Propulsion Systems, Wohlthan et al., MTZ worldwide 10.1007/s38313-025-2056-z
Norwegian–Polish carbon capture and storage network: Bilateral collaboration for European climate action, Nooraiepour et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104106
Decarbonization
Active trading and regulatory incentives lower the levelized cost of green hydrogen in Greece, Georgopoulos et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02349-3
Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59879-9
HVO100 – The Pathway to a CO2-neutral Future for Diesel Engine Drives, Diezemann et al., MTZ worldwide 10.1007/s38313-025-2039-0
Imagining a hydrogen economy: From grand technological utopia to enabler of the energy transition in three waves since the 1970s, Frowijn et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104084
Risk-aware electricity dispatch with large-scale distributed renewable integration under climate extremes, Xu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2426620122
Rooftop and floating PV potential for sustainable energy in Pakistan: A national-scale assessment, Lodhi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101748
Simulation of Tilted Rooftop Photovoltaic Panels at City Scale: Novel Measurements, Model Development, and Application in WRF, Yin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd043133
Transitioning towards sustainable heating: A mixed-methods study of heat pump acceptance among Flemish homeowners, Martens et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104137
“In general, climate-neutral fuels also require state-of-the-art exhaust gas aftertreatment”, Ziegler, MTZ worldwide 10.1007/s38313-025-2069-7
Geoengineering climate
A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop Between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations, Diao et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005455
How marine cloud brightening could also affect stratospheric ozone, Bednarz et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu4038
Aerosols
Extended Gap Between Snowmelt and Greenup Increases Dust Storm Occurrence, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70236
Climate change communications & cognition
Behavioral interventions motivate action to address climate change, Sinclair et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2426768122
Headlining justice from coalfields to clean futures: How the Australian newsprint media frames a just energy transition, Walters et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104131
The effects of subjective perceptions of climate change and standard of living on the adoption of liquefied petroleum gas in Cameroon, Ombiono Kitoto et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114686
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate change skepticism of European farmers and implications for effective policy actions, Kröner et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02304-2
Farmers’ quality of life prediction under climate variability: the role of psychological coping strategies, Mohammadi-Mehr et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2500467
Intensive oyster farming enhances carbon storage in sediments over decades, Sun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02358-2
Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands, McClelland et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Rice water requirement exacerbates groundwater depletion in Northeast China under a changing climate, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110624
The effects of adaptation on the phenological changes of winter wheat in the warmer North China Plain, Zhao et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Enhanced relationship between preceding autumn-winter sea ice over Greenland Sea and following Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall after early-2000s, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108228
Global patterns of rain-on-snow and its impacts on runoff from past to future projections, Maina & Kumar, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59855-3
Global Warming Will Increase the Risk of Water Shortage in Northwest China, Lu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006199
Multi-Day Extreme Precipitation Caused Major Floods in India During Summer Monsoon of 2024, Singh Chuphal et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14945
Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system, Zhang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ads4419
Climate change economics
Carbon tax in the shipping sector: Assessing economic and environmental impacts, Pereda et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114627
Climate change and monetary policy: a Bayesian DSGE perspective, Tervala & Watson, Empirical Economics Open Access 10.1007/s00181-025-02747-8
Critical mineral constraints pressure energy transition and trade toward the Paris Agreement climate goals, Shi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59741-y
Decarbonization Investment Strategies in an Uncertain Climate, Bauer et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005851
Decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth in China’s textile industry: a decomposition of driving factors, Hong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1587498
Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions: a time-varying analysis of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in France (1890–2019), Saglam et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-025-06310-4
Ending international fossil fuel finance: Lessons from the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, Morgan & MacNeil, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114694
Integrating science for simultaneously addressing loss and damage from climate change and strengthening social protection, Desai et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1497560
Renewable energy investment under the market-oriented transition of policies, Zhang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114683
Resilience as a Gateway: Private foundations and the financialization of disaster assistance, Wolff, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707
Safety in an uncertain world within the Resilience Integrated Model of Climate and Economics (RIMCE), Bertolami & Gonçalves Gonçalves Diego Gonçalves Diego, The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196251336252
The world’s richest people have an outsized role in climate extremes, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01427-y
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A review of carbon-pricing studies for developing countries, van den Bergh & Drews, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2506758
Adaptation and evolution of policy processes to support an emerging renewable market: The case of distributed generation in Chile, Bunster et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104127
Ground-Truth: Can Forest Carbon Protocols Ensure High-Quality Credits?, Sanders?DeMott et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005414
Heating up the energy transition: Comparing energy justice and energy decision-making in individual and collective heating systems to support a just heat transition, Djinlev & Pearce, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104132
Improving land-use emission estimates under the Paris Agreement, Grassi et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01565-1
Navigating wind energy siting in the U.S.: The role of permitting and siting regulations and public engagement, Gao et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114692
Policy-driven acceleration of climate action, Boasson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000626
Response to Donald et al., (in press), Mitchell et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2484503
Response to Mitchell et al. 2024. Making soil carbon credits work for climate change mitigation. Carbon Management Volume 15, 2024 – Issue 1, Donald et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2496483
Too hot to handle? Governance, markets, and the slow burn of geothermal energy in Taiwan, Hsieh & Liu, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104123
Transition or not? Assessing competing narratives in South Africa’s just energy transition, Wang et al., Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific Open Access pdf 10.1088/1538-3873/aab93e
Unlocking global carbon reduction potential by embracing low-carbon lifestyles, Guan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59269-1
Unraveling climate targets across the Paris conurbation as a gauge of city ambitions, Albarus et al., npj Urban Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s42949-025-00206-y
‘With great power comes great responsibility’: climate change and the politics of simulation of the oil industry, Mavelli, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2497217
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China’s Two-child Policy, Ban et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002
Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning, Theokritoff et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2502111
Climate-related partial relocation in Fiji impacts the wellbeing of those who relocated and those who stayed differently, Link et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02357-3
Mapping and topic modeling of over 133,000 studies on climate change and cities: Trends, geographical disparities, and future research needs, Sharifi et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102448
Risk archetypes for European airports: moving towards climate change adaptation, Barrios-Crespo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100717
The magnitude of climate change-induced migration: an overview of projections and a case for attribution, Schewe & Beyer, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1570995
Vulnerable groups in severe heat: A study assessing the impacts of climate and Pocket Park visitations pre-post the pandemic, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102444
Climate change impacts on human health
Bridging the Gap between National Weather Service Heat Terminology and Public Understanding, Olson & Sutton, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0238.1
Climate change and health risk perception in India: A replication of the climate change risk perception model, Iyer & Alphonsa Jose, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102626
Co-Occurring Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat in the Western United States From 2006 to 2020, Walker et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8905
Medicine in a warming world: The critical role of physicians, Bakhshi et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000630
Other
Predicting “Unprecedented change”: A crisis for analogs, Charenko, The Anthropocene Review Open Access 10.1177/20530196251334761
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A plea for caring spaces in transformative climate research, Albert-Fonseca et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000620
Climate science for 2050, Brasseur et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1554685
Do look up: how science and international cooperation closed the ozone hole, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01459-4
Hurricane risk in a changing climate — the role of uncertainty, Sobel & Emanuel, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01552-8
Projections of Earth’s health under different environmental policies, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01480-7
Science’s enduring role in climate policy, Yang, Science 10.1126/science.adw7385
Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions?, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adt6485
The history of a + 3 °C future: Global and regional drivers of greenhouse gas emissions (1820–2050), Infante-Amate et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103009
The new reality for American academia, Thorp, Science 10.1126/science.ady7672
The opportunity for climate action through climate-smart Marine Spatial Planning, Queirós et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-025-00129-2
Trump takes steps toward a radically different NSF, , AAAS Articles DO Group 10.1126/science.zixkxea
US researchers must stand up to protect freedoms, not just funding, Leifer et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01466-5
‘Loss and damage fund’ for climate change needs broader remit, Ryan & Staver, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01510-4
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker: Headline findings, Winter 2024, UK, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, United Kingdom
The nationally representative annual survey of adults (aged 16+) in the UK that tracks public awareness, attitudes and behaviours relating to the policies of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), such as energy and climate change. Overall awareness of the 2050 Net Zero target was 91%, unchanged from Spring 2024, and remaining broadly stable since Winter 2021. Knowledge (knowing a lot or a fair amount) increased slightly from 50% in Summer 2024 to 53% in Winter 2024. 80% of people said they were very or fairly concerned about climate change, with 37% very concerned, unchanged since Winter 2023. However, there has been a decline in levels of concern over time from Autumn 2021 when 85% were concerned. Concern about climate change was higher among older people aged 65 and over (43% compared with between 32% and 35% in age groups from 16 to 44) and people with a degree (48% compared with 30% of those with no qualifications). TV news was the most reported source used to get information on tackling climate change (60%), followed by social media (40%), TV and radio documentaries and podcasts (39%) and newspapers or newspaper websites (39%). When presented with a list of climate change mitigation topics, 69% of people wanted more information on at least one of the topics listed. The most common topics people wanted to know more about were reducing energy consumption at home (48%), choosing environmentally friendly products (43%), and choosing green financial products (27%).
European Industry and the EU’s Climate Policy 2024–29, InfluenceMap
The authors show that there has been a profound shift in corporate attitudes toward climate policy among businesses in the European Union. 52% of European companies tracked in LobbyMap, a platform that InfluenceMap created for tracking corporate climate policy engagement, now demonstrate science-aligned or partially science-aligned climate policy engagement, indicating broad support for the Green Deal’s agenda. This marks a significant increase from 24% since the presentation of the EU Green Deal at the start of the 2019 legislative cycle. Meanwhile, the proportion of companies with misaligned climate policy engagement has dropped from 34% to 13% over the same period. The findings challenge narratives promoted by certain industry associations since before the 2024 European Parliament elections which portray European industrial competitiveness as being in conflict with ambitious EU climate policy. These narratives appear to have exerted significant influence on the European Commission’s emerging climate policy agenda for 2024–2029.
A majority of registered voters want federal agencies to increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warmin, Fine et al., Yale University and George Mason University
The authors asked Americans how much federal agencies such as the CDC, the NIH, and FEMA should do to protect people from health problems related to global warming. A majority of registered voters (55%) said federal agencies should do more than they are currently doing to protect people from the health harms of global warming. 20% of registered voters said agencies should continue to do the same amount, and 15% said they should decrease their efforts. Taken together, 75% of registered voters want federal agencies to maintain or increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming. Overall, a majority of registered voters (55%) said federal agencies should increase their efforts to protect people from health problems related to global warming, outnumbering those who said federal agencies should decrease these efforts (15%) by more than 3 to 1. An additional 20% of registered voters said agencies should do about the same amount as they are doing now.
Massachusetts Study on Time-Varying Rate Design to Enable Electrification, Smith et al., Advanced Energy United and Demand Side Analytics
The authors identify ways in which Massachusetts can support electrification without abandoning its energy efficiency and long-term system cost containment imperatives. The authors show that a time-of-use (TOU) electric rate, paired with enhanced energy efficiency efforts, can significantly reduce residential energy bills for electrified homes while mitigating rate increases for all homes.
East Coast Dominates States Most at Risk of Coastal Flooding, Maggie Davis, Lending Tree
Louisiana, New Jersey and Virginia are most at risk for coastal flooding. Louisiana ranks in the bottom four in the three categories analyzed (annual frequency, expected annual losses and population exposure). The East Coast dominates the at-risk list, accounting for seven of the 10 in worst shape. Virginia has the most coastal flood events annually. At 158.7 coastal flood events annually, Virginia leads by a wide margin. Florida (108.3) is the only other above 100.0. Expected annual losses per 10,000 residents are highest in New Jersey. New Jersey has expected annual losses of $682,436 per 10,000 residents. Following at less than a third of New Jersey’s expected losses is Delaware, at $223,849. Louisiana ($127,714) and Oregon ($103,002) are the only others above $100,000. Nearly 2 in 5 Louisiana residents are exposed to coastal flooding risk. Louisiana has the highest proportion of residents exposed to coastal flooding, at 38.4%. Florida is the only other above 10.0%, at 17.5%. Among 41 coastal sites analyzed, 29 saw average annual coastal flood events double or more from 1990-2009 to 2010-23. Mayport, Fla. (971.4%), saw the biggest increase in coastal flood events, ahead of Wilmington, N.C. (582.5%), and Charleston, S.C. (580.3%). Only seven of the sites experienced a decrease in the studied period.
Home Insurance Rates to Rise 8% in 2025, After a 20% Increase in the Last Two Years, Brannon et al., Insurify
Homeowners will again face rising insurance costs in 2025 as insurance companies try to recoup massive losses from recent years. The authors project the annual cost of home insurance will increase 8% by the end of the year to a national average of $3,520. Severe weather is a major factor behind the increase, putting pressure on insurers to raise rates. Western wildfires, Southern hurricanes, and Midwestern hail have continued to increase in intensity and frequency, leading to larger losses and higher claim payouts. The gap between what insurers charge in premiums and what they pay out in losses is shrinking, with some states costing insurers more than they make. For example, Iowa home insurers pay out $122 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums.
Climate READi Compass. Navigating Physical Climate Risk Assessments for the Power System, Fischer et al., The Electric Power Research Institute
The document includes a guidance, references, and tools that power system practitioners and industry stakeholders can use to support their assessment of asset and system risk to physical climate conditions. The document can be used, in part or in whole, to assess and model risk from present-day climate conditions and from potential projected changes linked to climate change. It also includes resources that can be used to identify adaptation options and inform investment prioritization decisions to support resilience.
Ground Truth: An Assessment of Forest Carbon Credit Protocols, Sanders-DeMott et al., Clean Air Task Force
The authors evaluate protocols for certifying forest carbon credits and determine whether these existing carbon market guidelines are strong enough to ensure high-quality credits. The authors provide a summary of the Ground-Truth assessment results, along with additional policy context and recommendations based on our analysis. The project team scored 20 forest carbon credit protocols representing technical guidance for carbon credit certification in both voluntary and compliance carbon markets in North America. Their evaluation revealed that existing carbon market protocols are not sufficiently robust to guarantee that certified credits deliver their promised climate benefits.
Pipelines for hydrogen transport: A review of integrity and safety challenges, Smedberg et al., European Union
The European Commission highlights hydrogen as an important energy carrier and chemical feedstock that could help decarbonize sectors otherwise deemed hard-to-abate. Europe’s existing natural gas grid is seen as a promising asset to repurpose for the transportation of hydrogen. The authors provide a literature review of hydrogen’s impact on pipeline materials, particularly steel and polymers. Hydrogen is known to reduce the ductility, fracture toughness, and the fatigue crack growth resistance of steel materials commonly found in transmission pipelines. It is also known to permeate through polymeric materials that are often used in the distribution grid. The possible implications for pipeline integrity and safety are reviewed. The authors emphasize the need for further experimental research and practical experience combining material science and safety engineering disciplines.
Wired for profit: Grid is the key to unlock ASEAN energy investment, Dinita Setyawati and Shabrina Nadhila, Ember
The authors summarize emerging challenges facing ASEAN in managing their electric grids and interconnections. They provide recommendations based on examples from Europe and Southern Africa for the arrangement of multilateral power trading in ASEAN. They also analyze the potential of unlocking solar and wind in the region via planned interconnections and presents several clean flexibility options for ASEAN.
A Climate Hawk’s Guide to Northwest Data Centers, Emily Moore, Sightline Institute
The author found that data centers’ climate impact in Oregon and Washington has been modest to date; not yet enough to reverse the states’ forward march toward carbon-free electricity. Further, protections in the two states’ laws shield the region from many, though not all, of the noxious outcomes data center providers are causing throughout the United States. Rather than risk pushing data centers to states with weaker environmental protections and dirtier power grids, the author urges Northwest leaders to leverage data facilities’ demand for power — and tech companies’ deep pockets — to accelerate the broader economy’s transition to clean energy.
Youth perspectives on climate. Preparing for a sustainable future, Naik et al., Capgemini Research Institute
The authors explore youth perspectives on the climate crisis, their take on “green skilling” and graduating to a green job, and how business and government can collaborate with young people to inspire climate advocacy and activism. The comprehensive study of 5,100 youth across the Global South and Global North–with 83% of the sample in the Global South–fills a void in the body of research addressing youth and climate change.
Summer Residential Cooling Outlook: Residential Electric Utility Expenditures Projected to Reach Record Levels, Highest Level in at Least 12 years, National Energy Assistance Directors Association and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate
Th authors found that consumers are going to be hit with the highest cooling expenses in 12 years, possibly a record high for home cooling this summer, as the average cost of electricity is projected to reach $784, a 6.2% increase from $737 last year. After adjusting for inflation, the average family will see an increase of 4.2%. Prices are rising for two reasons: the cost of electricity is rising faster than average inflation, and each summer temperatures are continuing to increase, reflecting the direct impact of climate change, which leads to prolonged periods of extreme heat and heatwaves.
Decades of Deceit. The Case Against Major Fossil Fuel Companies for Climate Fraud and Damages, Merner et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
Dozens of states, counties, cities, and tribes across the United States and its territories are currently suing major fossil fuel companies for fraud, climate damages, or racketeering. The authors assess the wealth of documentary evidence behind these lawsuits, including recently released internal corporate documents. The evidence could hardly be clearer: For decades these companies possessed detailed and accurate knowledge about the dangers their products pose to the global climate and understood that climate action would threaten their business models. Yet they planned, funded, and continue to engage in a campaign to profit from the planet’s destruction by deceiving the public and blocking climate action.
Space Weather Table top Exercise. After Action Report, NOAA National Satellite, Data, and Information Office of Space Weather Observations, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency
On 8–9 May 2024, the United States government held the first-ever end-to-end Space Weather (SWx) Tabletop Exercise (TTX). The SWx TTX provided opportunities for participants to better understand the preparedness and response challenges associated with the threat of an impending space weather event. The SWx TTX scenario, which was organized into four modules, involved a series of solar events that drove a range of adverse space weather effects on Earth and in geospace. Overall, the exercise demonstrated the need for better coordination to produce meaningful SWx notifications that describe the potential impacts to critical infrastructure, as well as emphasized the importance of the whole-of-government planning approach for significant SWx events.
State Spending Series: Climate Change Costs, Comptroller of Maryland
One of the most noticeable aspects and costs of climate change is the escalating severity of extreme weather events. Maryland experienced 85 extreme weather events between 1980 and 2024. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the total recovery costs for Maryland were between $10 billion to $20 billion dollars. Some of these costs included property and infrastructure damage, crop loss, and loss of revenue to businesses. Maryland will not be immune from more disasters in the coming decades; the costs of recovery will grow in tandem.
Exposing the Environmental Costs of Offshore Oil: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oil Slicks, and Flaring, Thomas et al, Skytruth
Despite the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate change, the global offshore oil and gas (O&G) industry continues to develop around the world. While the number of offshore structures is relatively stable, the industry is poised for rapid growth and is increasing its use of Floating Storage and Offloading, Floating Production Storage and Offloading, Floating Liquefied Natural Gas, and Floating Storage Regasification Unit vessels (collectively FxOs) to extract, produce, and store oil and gas. These FxOs and traditional O&G fixed infrastructure pose significant risks to both immediate and long-term climate and conservation goals, through a combination of oil pollution, methane release, and natural gas flaring, as well as the net GHG footprint required to operate and maintain these structures and vessels. The authors assess the offshore O&G Industry’s environmental footprint. They highlight 20 offshore oil facilities that stood out in satellite imagery for the frequency and extent of oil pollution events. These structures were responsible for 228 oil slicks, amounting to at least 295,000 gallons over a 16 month interval from June 2023 to October 2024, with individual structures likely producing as many as 175 slicks during that period.
Assessing Impacts of the 2025 Reconciliation Bill on U.S. Energy Costs, Jobs, Health, and Emissions, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology
The authors modeled the energy and climate provisions of the House’s reconciliation bill, including all Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits as well as expanded oil and gas production. The proposal would harm the U.S. economy significantly with damages stemming from higher energy prices, lost jobs, and lower GDP. Between 2026 and 2034 (the reconciliation window), national GDP decreases by nearly $1.1 trillion, cumulatively. Wholesale power prices increase roughly 50 percent by 2035 from the loss of new generation capacity. Cumulative annual consumer energy costs increase more than $16 billion in 2030 and more than $33 billion by 2035. Jobs fall by more than 830,000 in 2030 and nearly 720,000 in 2035. Additionally, wind, solar, and storage growth falls substantially at a time when the grid needs more power due to growing electricity demand.
Economic Impacts of Repealing Technology- Neutral Tax Credits, Tuladhar et al, Clean Energy Buyers Association
The authors examine the impacts of technology-neutral tax incentives, including macro-economic impacts and delivered electricity prices to residential and other ratepayers. The technology-neutral tax incentives analyzed in this study include the §45Y production tax credit (PTC) or the §48E investment tax credit (ITC) to incentivize clean energy investments across various generating technologies. The PTC and ITC incentives analyzed include the bonus credits for the prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements, but do not include the bonus credits that relate to domestic content requirements, or for projects located in energy communities. The authors found that repealing technology-neutral tax credits raises energy costs and burdens the economy in many different and interrelated ways.
Pedal to the Metal 2025. Evaluating progress toward 2030 iron and steel decarbonization goals, Grigsby-Schulte et al, Global Energy Monitor
The authors examine the status of the iron and steel sector compared to global decarbonization roadmaps and corporate and country level net zero pledges. As the world reaches the midway point between 2020 and 2030, it is a pivotal opportunity to evaluate the steel industry’s progress toward 2030 decarbonization goals. Data reinforce that there is a need to urgently move away from coal-based blast furnace basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) production and forge ahead with accelerated decarbonization transition plans for 2030. While electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is progressively growing and represents a larger share of global developments than ever before, continued investments in BF technology and setbacks in green steel development plans pose a significant threat to the industry. The steel sector must increase ambition in the second half of this decade if it stands a chance to meet 2030 — and 2050 — net-zero goals.
The State of Clean Energy Manufacturing, American Clean Power
The American clean power industry has announced over 250 new manufacturing facilities or expansions since August 2022, creating a nationwide industrial renaissance. Clean power manufacturing generates $18 billion annually in GDP and supports 122,000 high-wage American jobs. 73 percent of facilities operate in Republican states, with significant investments driving economic revitalization in the Southeast, Midwest, and Texas. $141 billion in announced investments and 500,000 projected jobs by 2030 depend on stable federal policy .support
The 13th National Risk Assessment Climate, The 6th “C” of Credit, First Street
The authors projected that the combined effects of direct disaster impacts and indirect economic pressures could result in up to $1.2 billion in credit losses from severe weather events by 2025, rising sharply to $5.4 billion by 2035. This growing share of foreclosure losses is largely driven by the escalating insurance crisis and the increasing frequency and severity of flooding anticipated in the coming decade. These findings emphasize that physical climate risk has become the sixth “C” of credit assessment—a critical factor to be evaluated alongside traditional metrics such as character, capacity, capital, collateral, and conditions. Furthermore, by including high resolution climate risk data, mortgage lenders could avoid “hidden credit risk” losses in their portfolios.
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