Urban starts, which include cities with populations over 10,000, totalled 259,804 units, while rural starts were estimated at 19,706. Actual starts in urban centres rose to 23,745 units in May, up from 21,814 a year earlier.
The six-month moving average, which smooths out volatility, rose for a second month to 243,407 units, up 0.8% from April.
National totals held steady, but there were notable shifts across regions and housing types. Urban multi-unit construction rose by 2,000 units to an annual pace of 217,300, while single-detached starts fell by the same amount to 42,500 units, according to TD economist Rishi Sondhi.
“May’s performance was evenly split across the multi-family and single-detached sectors,” he wrote.
Quebec and the Prairies drive gains, while B.C. retreats
Starts increased in five provinces, led by Quebec, where annualized starts jumped by 10,000 to reach 61,000. The Prairies also posted a strong gain of 6,200 units to 81,000, driven by activity in Manitoba and Alberta. Ontario saw a modest rise of 1,800 units to 66,000.
At the same time, British Columbia saw a sharp pullback, with starts falling by 15,400 units to 36,000.
The Atlantic provinces also posted declines, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.
Builders still busy, but challenges are looming
TD expects that May’s strong showing will contribute to a quarterly rise in housing starts for Q2, helping to support residential investment, even as resale activity softens.
“With May’s solid level, housing starts are on track to increase in the second quarter,” Sondhi said. “This bodes well for residential investment and should help offset some softness on this component coming through from home sales.”
But the outlook becomes more cautious beyond the near term, he added.
“Elevated building permits suggest that homebuilding can maintain a healthy pace in the near-term, but we don’t expect this to last,” he added. “Homebuilding should cool moving forward as slower population growth, falling rents in key markets, high construction costs, and past declines in home sales weigh on activity.”
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Last modified: June 16, 2025