Azerbaijan’s military offensive was followed by a nine-month blockade in 2022-23, preventing aid agencies like ours from delivering food and medical supplies. We warned at the time that the Armenian population of Nagorno Karabakh was on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. People were fainting in the streets from hunger.
The blockade culminated in a blitz military offensive in 2023. All remaining Armenians were driven out of Nagorno Karabakh. “Azerbaijan duly punished the enemy,” said President Aliyev in a victory speech. “I said that we would chase them, that we would chase them like dogs, and we chased them, we chased them like dogs.”
- An outdated tit-for-tat mindset
Aliyev makes no secret of further territorial ambitions. “Armenia as a country is of no value,” he says. “Present-day Armenia is our land.” Lake Sevan, Syunik and even the capital Yerevan “are our historical lands” and belong to Azerbaijan. His policy is fixed. Irredentist. Ultra-nationalistic. And (his words) anti-terrorist. Not too dissimilar from Putin in Ukraine.
Yet UK policy remains unchanged. Neutral. Tepid. Circumspect. British officials persist with a “both sides” narrative calling for “all parties” to de-escalate, as if Armenia and Azerbaijan are fighting a symmetrical battle, with comparable forces, where the lines of victim and aggressor are blurred.
Let’s be clear. Both sides have suffered. All should strive to reconcile. It is right to acknowledge the human cost and mutual hurt. But we must not become stuck in a pre-2020 mindset. This is not a tit-for-tat clash between similar-sized powers.
Azerbaijan is the biggest and richest state in the South Caucasus. It has huge oil and gas reserves propped up by companies like BP. High revenues boost defence spending – a record $5bn in 2025, roughly three times greater than Armenia.
“Might is Right”, says Aliyev, “…the number one priority is to build up our military.” He is supported by Erdogan in Turkey, who supplied deadly TB2 drones in the 2020 war, and who backs plans for a new transport route (the controversial Zangezur corridor) to connect their countries through Armenia.
Armenia, by comparison, does not have close allies. Russia used to be its primary security guarantor, but not anymore – not since Russian peacekeepers failed to protect Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia now needs new friends, beyond Russia, to offset Azerbaijan’s growing strength. Maybe France. Maybe India. Maybe the EU or USA. In each case, there are opportunities for alliances but no guarantees.
The UK must be alive to this reality. The regional power balance has tipped. There is no equivalence between the warring parties. One side possesses superior resources and, in the event of escalation, is capable of inflicting disproportionate levels of harm.
- The window for peace is closing
Optimists place their hope in peace talks, which bring potential for some kind of normalisation between the two countries. Perhaps a return to fragile peace. Or, more realistically, a new normal in which Armenia cedes to unfavourable terms: land for peace.
Regardless, President Aliyev holds the cards. He negotiates from a position of strength. If talks fail (as they failed in 2020 and 2023) he can use the implicit threat of force, or actual force, to yield quick results.