Fed markets pricing in third rate cut in 2025 based on inflation news

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Vehicle spending dropped significantly in May, as many consumers had made their purchases earlier in the year to avoid higher prices from new tariffs. Analysts noted that while some prices have increased due to trade policy, others have fallen, helping keep overall inflation in check.

Despite current trends, there are signs that inflationary pressures could mount in the coming months. Nike and Walmart were two companies that warned price increases could be coming soon as a result of the tariffs.

Tariff impacts

The impact of tariffs may have been muted so far because many goods were imported earlier in the year before duties were imposed. Economists at JPMorgan told the Associated Press that many companies are currently absorbing the costs of the tariffs, which reduces their profit margins and could eventually impact employment trends.

“This morning’s news was consistent with other reports showing the economy gradually losing momentum in the second quarter, ahead of the brunt of tariff increases expected to wash ashore during the summer and early fall,” Gary Schlossberg, a market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told CNBC.

Schlossberg added that the latest data helps “keep hopes alive” for a potential rate cut in July, although he also said talk of a cut may still be “premature.”