Mortgage lock volume surges, but interest rate volatility still ‘real killer’ for lender margins

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“The pickup in rate/term refinances were likely rate-driven,” Andrew Rhodes, senior director and head of trading at MCT, said in the report. “With a drop from the highs in rates toward the end of June, there was a direct effect on refinance activity. It’s a strong example of just how reactive this market continues to be.”

Compared to the same month last year, total lock volume increased by 9.39%. Rate/term refinance volume was up 35.49% year-over-year, and cash-out refis rose 24.41%. Purchase activity, despite affordability and inventory challenges, rose 7.04% from July 2024, pointing to steady demand in the homebuying market.

While refinances are rebounding from low base levels, Rhodes pointed out that purchase loans remain the backbone of the market.

“Rate-term and cash-out refinances may bounce around, but purchases are what’s driving the boat,” he said.

This week, though, long-term mortgage rates saw a slight rise after five consecutive weeks of declines. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.72% as of July 10, up from 6.67% the previous week. The 15-year FRM ticked up to 5.86% from 5.80%.