Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2025
Posted on 17 July 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally, Abatzoglou et al., Nature Communications
Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme (1-in-15-year) fire weather indices (FWI) and featured a four and five-fold increase in the number of large fires and fire carbon emissions, respectively, compared with non-extreme years. Years with such extreme FWI metrics are 88-152% more likely across global forested lands under a contemporary (2011–2040) climate compared to a quasi-preindustrial (1851–1900) climate, with the most pronounced increased risk in temperate and Amazonian forests. Our results show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate risks and adapt to extreme fire years.
The work was supported through grants from the NSF Growing Convergence Research Program (OAI-2019762) to J.T.A. and A.C.C., Department of Interior’s Joint Fire Science Program (21-2-01-1 and 21-2-01-3) to J.T.A., M.S., and E.W.
Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming, Cunningham et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Dangerous fire weather is increasing under climate change, but there is limited knowledge of how this will affect fire intensity, a critical determinant of the socioecological effects of wildfire. Here, we model relationships between satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and contemporaneous fire weather index, and then we project how FRP is likely to change under near-term warming scenarios. The models project widespread growth in FRP, with increases expected across 88% of fire-prone areas worldwide under 1.5 °C warming. Projected increases in FRP were highest in the Mediterranean biome and Temperate Conifer Forest biome, and increases were twice as large under 2 °C warming compared to 1.5 °C. Disaster-prone areas of the wildland-urban interface saw an average of 3.6 times greater projected increases than non-disaster-prone areas, suggesting wildfire impacts will intensify most in regions already vulnerable to dangerous wildfires. These findings emphasise the urgent need to anticipate changes to fire behaviour and proactively manage wildland-urban ecosystems to reduce future fire intensity.
Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability, Barnes et al., Earth’s Future
Rising groundwater tables due to sea level rise (SLR) pose a critical but understudied threat to low-lying coastal regions. This study uses field observations and dynamic modeling to investigate drivers of groundwater variability and to project flooding risks from emergent groundwater in Imperial Beach, California. Hourly groundwater table data from four monitoring wells (2021–2024) reveal distinct aquifer behaviors across soil types. In transmissive coastal sandy soils, groundwater levels are dominated by ocean tides, with secondary contributions from non-tidal sea level variability and seasonal recharge. In this setting, we calibrated an empirical groundwater model to observations, and forced the model with regional SLR scenarios. We project that groundwater emergence along the low-lying coastal road will begin by the 2060s under intermediate SLR trajectories, and escalate to near-daily flooding by 2100. Over 20% of San Diego County’s coastline shares similar transmissive sandy geology and thus similar flooding risk. Results underscore the urgency of integrating groundwater hazards into coastal resilience planning, as current adaptation strategies in Imperial Beach—focused on surface flooding—are insufficient to address infrastructure vulnerabilities from below.
Support for this study was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation (2113984, 2113987, 2239602, and 2205239) and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (W912HZ1920020)
Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal, Stuart-Smith et al., Climate Policy
Our analysis finds substantial ambiguities in how states plan to meet their climate targets. A feature of this ambiguity is that states expect to rely heavily on novel and conventional CDR options to meet their climate goals, and in some cases, rely on removals delivered in other states’ territories. Pathways that overshoot 1.5°C and use CDR to remove emissions produced in excess of the 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget will result in more severe climate change impacts and higher risks of crossing planetary tipping points. Moreover, states’ disclosed reliance on CDR is highly exposed to risks to its delivery, and non-delivery of planned CDR would raise global temperatures further, worsening impacts of climate change. Our findings provide a basis for enhanced scrutiny of states’ targets. The risks associated with heavy reliance on CDR to meet climate goals indicate that states should prioritize pathways that minimize overshoot and the reliance on CDR to reach net-zero CO2 emissions.
The climate activist’s dilemma: Extreme protests reduce movement support but raise climate concern and intentions, Nylund et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology
Some members of the climate movement advocate for disruptive tactics, including mass civil disobedience, in the effort to pressure governments to address anthropogenic climate change. However, prior research on the “activist’s dilemma” suggests that extreme protest actions may reduce public support for a movement. The present research aimed to discover if these findings would replicate within the highly moralised context of climate change, and explore target deservingness as a potential moderator. Across two studies, with Australian psychology students (Study 1; N=178) and a politically representative sample from the United Kingdom (Study 2; N=511), participants perceived climate activists engaging in extreme (vs. moderate) protests to be more immoral, felt less emotional connection and identification with them, and supported the movement less. However, Study 2 found that extreme (vs. moderate) protests also heightened climate concern and intentions to take climate-related actions. These findings highlight a “climate activist’s dilemma”: while extreme tactics may reduce support for the activist groups who engage in such tactics, they may simultaneously raise climate concern and personal intentions to act.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Climate change tripled heat-related deaths in early summer European heatwave, Clarke et al., Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Human-caused climate change intensified the recent European heatwave and increased the number of heat deaths by about 1,500 in 12 European cities. Focusing on ten days of heat from June 23 to July 2, the researchers estimated the death toll using peer-reviewed methods and found climate change nearly tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use having increased heatwave temperatures up to 4°C across the cities. They warn that heatwave temperatures will keep rising and future death tolls are likely to be higher, until the world largely stops burning oil, gas and coal and reaches net zero emissions.
Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, Energy Institute
Total energy demand increased across all regions, but the growth was far from evenly distributed, reflecting stark regional variations shaped by economic development, climate conditions, and energy policy. North America and Europe exhibited the slowest growth rates at 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. However, in absolute terms, Africa had the smallest increase in energy demand, at 0.29 EJ their increase in demand was less than 40% of Europe’s increased energy demand (0.73 EJ). The Asia Pacific region drove 65% of the global energy demand increase and is responsible for 47% of total global energy demand. Total renewable energy supply increased by 8%, of which China alone was responsible for more than the rest of the world combined (at 58%). Global growth in electricity demand continues to outpace growth in total energy demand. All regions experienced significant growth in electricity demand in this new age of electricity, with Asia Pacific and the Middle East registering the greatest growth in electricity generation at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively.
147 articles in 66 journals by 905 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Amplified warming accelerates deoxygenation in the Arctic Ocean, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02376-0
Climate-Driven Stratification Intensifies Internal Wave Cooling on a Shallow Island Reef, Rogers et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115458
Observational constraints suggest a smaller effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions, Park et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-7299-2025
Oceanic Control on the Long-Term Intensification of Extreme Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115192
Synergistic impacts of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the decadal intensification of the warm season heatwaves in China, Gu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108322
The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean, Lopez et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61859-y
Observations of climate change, effects
Assessing Climate Extremes Indices Over Global Drylands Under Real World Warming Beyond 1.5°C: Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends, Ma et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70020
Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation, Årthun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu1794
Changes in Wind Regimes Over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh Regions: A Climate Change Perspective, Verma & Singh, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70034
Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally, Abatzoglou et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1
Earth, Wind, and Fire: Are Boulder’s Extreme Downslope Winds Changing?, Meehl et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0091.1
State of the UK Climate in 2024, Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70010
Trends in Satellite-Based Ocean Parameters through Integrated Time Series Decomposition and Spectral Analysis. Part I: Chlorophyll, Sea Surface Temperature, and Sea Level Anomaly, Dash et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 10.1175/jtech-d-24-0007.1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A multimodal machine learning fused global 0.1° daily evapotranspiration dataset from 1950-2022, Xu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110645
How Temperature Trends Vary with Specific Humidity in the Tropical Lower Troposphere in ERA5, Roundy, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0723.1
The SDGSAT-1 mission and its role in monitoring SDG indicators, Guo et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114885
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Assessing the Intensity of Heatwaves in a Warming Climate at the Urban Scale: A Case Study of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, Ventura et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043559
Evolution of the Dynamics of Centennial Hot Summers in Western Europe With Climate Change, Noyelle et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115552
Future biogeochemical changes in southern South China Sea from CMIP6 model projection, Marshal et al., Ocean Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s10236-025-01707-1
Future Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on Extreme Wet Days Rainfall During March–May in Tanzania Using CMIP6 Models, King’uza et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70038
Future Local-Scale Extreme Precipitation Changes in Norway: A Convection-Permitting Climate Model Perspective, Xie et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042899
Global Land–Lake Thermal Contrast in a Warming World, Lyu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0559.1
Influence of Northwest Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the South China Sea Winter Monsoon Based on Multimodel Projections, Feng et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70030
Investigation of a Mesoscale Convective System over the Eastern United States in Future Climates. Part I: Precipitation Evolution, Wu & Lombardo, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0476.1
Investigation of a Mesoscale Convective System over the Eastern United States in Future Climates. Part II: Storm-Scale Processes, Wu & Lombardo, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0477.1
Mechanisms of the Extreme Wind Speed Response to Climate Change in Variable-Resolution Climate Simulations of Western, Central, and Atlantic Canada, Morris & Kushner, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0532.1
Modeled Centennial Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Driven by Thermodynamic Atmospheric Changes, Not Winds, Turner et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112287
Projected Response of Santa Ana Winds Over Southern California to Global Warming by a High-Resolution Climate Model, You & Delworth, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114994
Projection of Future Fire Weather in Eurasia by Mid-21st Century, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043686
Seasonal Dependence of the Projected Indian Ocean Walker Circulation Uncertainty under Greenhouse Warming, Han et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0480.1
Spatiotemporal patterns and propagation of polar amplification among Earth’s three poles based on climate network, Ma et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108254
Tropical Cyclones and Associated Environmental Fields in CMIP6 Models, Camargo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0629.1
Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming, Cunningham et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02475-y
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Impacts of Resolution on Heavy-Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts, Wu & Ma, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042720
More is not always better: delta-downscaling climate model outputs from 30 to 5 min resolution has minimal impact on coherence with Late Quaternary proxies, Timbrell et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-21-1185-2025
Nonlinear Carbon Feedbacks in CMIP6 and Their Impacts on Future Freshwater Availability, Mankin et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0028.1
Reducing Tropical Cyclone Activity in Global Climate Models by Evaporative Suppression, Rios et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd043302
The Link between Gulf Stream Precipitation Extremes and European Blocking in General Circulation Models and the Role of Horizontal Resolution, Strommen et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0311.1
Using the Moist Static Energy Variance Budget to Evaluate Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models against Reanalyses and Satellite Observations, Starr et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0353.1
Why Idealized Models Are More Important Than Ever in Earth System Science, Reed et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001716
Cryosphere & climate change
Asymmetric Impact of the Tropical Pacific on Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Trends Under Increasing and Decreasing Greenhouse Gases, Heo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116352
Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models, Lambert & Burgard Burgard, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025
CMIP6 Representation of Declining Sea Ice and Arctic Cyclones in the Current Climate, Valkonen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042388
Conductive Heat Flux Over Arctic Sea Ice From 1979 to 2022, Liu & Zhang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022062
Evaluating the Role of Internal Climate Variability and Bias Adjustment Methods on Decadal Glacier Projections, Weathers et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005624
Extensive fluvial surfaces at the East Antarctic margin have modulated ice-sheet evolution, Paxman et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01734-z
Mass balance reconstruction of a reference glacier in central Asia during 2000–2023: Integrating simulation and in-situ measurements, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.006
Temperature mediated albedo decline portends acceleration of North American glacier mass loss, Williamson et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02503-x
Sea level & climate change
Constraining local ocean dynamic sea-level projections using observations, Le Bars et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-1303-2025
Flooding Projections Due To Groundwater Emergence Caused by Sea Level Variability, Barnes et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006270
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Diversification to extinction: oceanic and climatic context of the Ordovician, Liu et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105194
Enhanced ventilation of Eastern North Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zone with deglacial slowdown of Meridional Overturning, Barragán-Montilla et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61177-3
Mid-Holocene climate over the Mediterranean, North Africa, and Middle East simulated using a regional climate model, Xie et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836251350243
Molecular fossil responses to Toarcian (Early Jurassic) climate warming in the high-latitude lacustrine Junggar Basin, China, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104960
Pulses of ocean acidification at the Triassic–Jurassic boundary, Trudgill et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61344-6
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Bowhead whale faeces link increasing algal toxins in the Arctic to ocean warming, Lefebvre et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09230-5
Bridging the Scotia Arc: Climate-Driven Shifts in Connectivity of the Freshwater Crustacean Branchinecta gaini in Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Ecosystems, Maturana et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70049
Climate change enhances soil fauna population and biomass in grasslands of the Loess Plateau, Yang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02542-4
Climate change risks on key open marine and coastal mediterranean ecosystems, Hassoun et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-07858-x
Climate Change-Induced Landscape Alterations Increase Nutrient Sequestration and Cause Severe Oligotrophication of Subarctic Lakes, Goedkoop et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70314
Climate Services Ecosystems: More Bangs for the Bucks, González Romero et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0276.1
Combined effects of ocean acidification and warming on phytoplankton productivity and community structure in the coastal water of Southern East, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107352
Dispersal evolution can only rescue a limited set of species from climate change, Kamal et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2025.0116
Dynamic Flux Balance Analysis Reveals Climate-Driven Shifts in Arctic Diatom Succession and Bloom Dynamics, Zavorskas et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70339
Flexibility in the face of climate change? A rapid and dramatic shift towards later spring migration in Hudsonian godwits (Limosa haemastica), Puleo et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2025.0982
Global Warming-Driven Decline in Phytoplankton Biomass in the Tropical Pacific Identified From Satellite Records, Lin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg008743
Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species, Lezama-Ochoa et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-025-00136-3
Identifying the Climate Conditions Associated With Extreme Growth States in Trees Across the Western United States, Ogle et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70317
Marine heatwaves select for thermal tolerance in a reef-building coral, Howells et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02381-3
Reproductive Costs Increase With Longer Extreme Heat Events in Collembola, Gremion et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71775
Risk assessment and adaptation technologies for island biodiversity conservation in China under climate change, XIA et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007
Sensitivity of understorey phenology to warming depends on forcing time window, Landuyt et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110733
The Interplay Between Climate Warming Driven by Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Ecotoxicological Effects of Microplastics: Insights From a Meta-Analysis, Lv et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70348
The Vulnerability of Overwintering Insects to Loss of the Subnivium, Thompson et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.05.06.592805
Translational reprogramming under heat stress: a plant’s perspective, Smith et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.250132
Warming risks Tibetan meadow collapse, Lyu, Nature Plants 10.1038/s41477-025-02068-9
Whole-Earth: A Conservation-Planning Paradigm for a Changing Climate, Lawler et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70328
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Accounting for methane from natural gas infrastructure in United States greenhouse gas emission estimates, Kircher, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114747
An empirical assessment of dissolved organic carbon fluxes to oceans under climate change, Fabre et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104971
An upper-mesopelagic-zone carbon budget for the subarctic North Pacific, Stephens et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-3301-2025
Coastal carbon at risk: forecasting the impacts of sea-level rise on future land cover, Tahmasebi et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1608422
Estimating daily NOx and CO2 emissions in typical megacities of east China using TROPOMI NO2 observations, Jia et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121377
Estimating strong point CO2 emissions by combining spaceborne IPDA lidar and HSRL, Cheng et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114898
Future glacier retreat and forest expansion in the Swiss Alps provide limited benefits for carbon sinks, Jiang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110682
Global patterns of soil organic carbon distribution in the 20–100 cm soil profile for different ecosystems: a global meta-analysis, Wang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-3375-2025
Impact of Long-Term Drainage on Carbon Fluxes in the High-Latitude Permafrost Region, Bolek et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70346
Internal stem decay is not a major source of error for carbon stock estimates in managed temperate forests of Central Europe, Hauck et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70116
Legacy Effects of the Siberian Heatwave of 2020 on Above- and Belowground Processes, Kwon et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008607
Responses of Subsoil Organic Carbon to Climate Warming and Cooling Is Determined by Microbial Community Rather Than Its Molecular Composition, Li et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.70162
Rodent Bioturbation Significantly Enhances Annual Methane Uptake by Tibetan Alpine Grasslands, Gan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70342
Russia-Ukraine war has altered the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02537-1
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
The rise and flows of blue carbon credits advance global climate and biodiversity goals, Farahmand et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-025-00141-6
Decarbonization
Deploying photovoltaic systems in global open-pit mines for a clean energy transition, Wang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01594-w
Aerosols
Assessing discrepancies in global aerosol trends from satellites, models and reanalyses, Urraca et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114827
East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming, Samset et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Change Discourse and Coastal Erosion in New Caledonia: an Analysis of Press Coverage in Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes, Klöck et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2527654
Predictors and correlates of self-reported climate anxiety in the United States, Kricorian et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000534
Rolando García: Refugee, Radical, Climate’s Attorney at Law, Naylor, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70013
The climate activist’s dilemma: Extreme protests reduce movement support but raise climate concern and intentions, Nylund et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102682
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptive capacity and climate resilience of mountain pastoralist communities under extreme weather stress, Ullah & Bavorova, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104153
Changes in the Distribution of Botrytis cinerea Pers. Fr. In China Under Climate Change, Qian et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71640
Climate services bundles preferences of smallholder farmers in West Africa: a stated choice modelling, Ouedraogo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581001
Climate-smart aquaculture practice: Changes in economic viability and efficiency of mud crab fattening in coastal Bangladesh, Sujan et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100726
Extreme Dry-Heat Climate Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity in Wheat Production: Insights and Mitigation Strategies, Shi et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70349
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Regional supply-chain impacts of Mississippi River fertilizer shipments disrupted by climate change, Chen et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70064
Rethinking Organic Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils From the Elemental Stoichiometry Perspective, Luo et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70319
Seasonal Sheep Grazing Does Not Enhance Stable or Total Soil Carbon Stocks in a Long-Term Calcareous Grassland Experiment, Encarnation et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71582
Strengthening women’s resilience and participation in climate governance in the agrifood sector through public policies: a strategic review of literature, Mohammed et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2533184
‘The fish that stop’: drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate, McClenachan et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0278
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessing Climate Extremes Indices Over Global Drylands Under Real World Warming Beyond 1.5°C: Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends, Ma et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70020
Extreme river flood exposes latent erosion risk, Barneveld et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09305-3
Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Projected Discharge Patterns in the Upper Yellow River Basin, Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70040
North Pacific response to warming sustains drought in the Southwest US, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01727-y
Rainfall seasonality changes and underlying climatic causes in global land monsoon regions, Deng et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108288
Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming, Kuo et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01728-x
Stronger Influence of the Tropical Atlantic on Interannual Variability of Northern Hemisphere Land Monsoon Rainfall since the Mid-1990s, Zhu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0459.1
Western Mediterranean flash floods through the Lens of Alcanar (NE Iberian Peninsula): Meteorological drivers and trends, Llasat et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108266
Climate change economics
All downhill from here? Climate change and house prices in the Swiss Alps, Blok & Fuerst, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100728
Cash for conservation? Integrating basic income support into biodiversity and climate finance, Fletcher et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101554
Modelling policy packages with combined climate, social, and macroeconomic goals: the Swedish case, Ergon et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2531098
Projecting stock market impacts of climate change via rational bubble models, Fry, Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70078
Targeting climate finance for global forests, Austin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61657-6
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Are population issues mainstreamed into climate change policies and action in Nigeria? Evidence from a systematic review of national climate change documents, Maduekwe et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2527852
Auditors can’t save carbon offsets, Giles & Coglianese, Science 10.1126/science.ady4864
Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal, Stuart-Smith et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2528775
Pathways for the Indian steel sector: Realizing low carbon industrial clusters through a place-based approach in eastern India, Mallett et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104209
Policy silences in Nordic-Arctic energy transitions: A topic-modelling study, Vikström et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114746
Science advice and policy influence: Views of practitioners in the Swedish Climate Policy Council, Aarthun & Sundqvist, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104143
Slow and unequal reduction in Austrian household GHG footprints between 2000 and 2020, Dorninger et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70074
Social licence in principle and practice: industrial decarbonisation in regional clusters, Clery et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104187
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate Ireland: A comprehensive evaluation of local authority climate action training, Phillips et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100729
Climate-smart ocean planning in small island developing states—exploring pathways in Dominica, Beyer & Mahadeo, npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-025-00116-7
Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water-Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States, Singhal et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006072
Climate change impacts on human health
Exploring the complex nexus of climate change, food security, and public health: A scientific perspective through bibliometric analysis, Mohd Ali et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104118
Global future heat stress projections: Regional variations of Humidex changes from high-resolution CMIP6 models, Kushwaha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108367
Projections of heat related mortality under combined climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for England and Wales, Cole et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000553
Temperature-Related Hospitalization Burden under Climate Change, Liao et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09352-w
Vertical transmission in field-caught mosquitoes identifies a mechanism for the establishment of Usutu virus in a temperate country, Schilling et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-09335-x
Other
Life cycle CO2 emissions of various transformers under different scenarios with multiple functional units, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003
Live long and prosper: an evaluation of the carbon intensity of subjective well-being in 99 countries, 2014–2021, Briscoe et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2530915
The Typicality of Regimes Associated with Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves, Chapman et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0548.1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Editorial: Climate change vulnerability, adaptation, and human settlements, Kumar et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1654854
The Anthropocene and Its Contenders: Cross-Disciplinary Tools for a Nationally Divided Humanity, Conversi, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004918
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2025, Klotzbach et al. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean
Climate change tripled heat-related deaths in early summer European heatwave, Clarke et al., Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Human-caused climate change intensified the recent European heatwave and increased the number of heat deaths by about 1,500 in 12 European cities. Focusing on ten days of heat from June 23 to July 2, the researchers estimated the death toll using peer-reviewed methods and found climate change nearly tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use having increased heatwave temperatures up to 4°C across the cities. They warn that heatwave temperatures will keep rising and future death tolls are likely to be higher, until the world largely stops burning oil, gas and coal and reaches net zero emissions.
Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars in the European Union. A 2025 update and key factors to consider, Marta Negri and Georg Bieker, The International Council on Clean Transportation
The authors present a life-cycle assessment of the global warming potential of passenger cars sold in the European Union. They compare sales-weighted average medium segment gasoline, diesel, and natural gas internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. The analysis covers the greenhouse gas emissions from vehicle and battery production and recycling, fuel and electricity production, fuel consumption, and maintenance.
Deep decarbonization plans are shallower than they appear, Fortier et al, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; , University of California, Merced;
Regional decarbonization or climate action plans in the US generally ignore the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable electricity generation systems that occur beyond the operational stage. The authors analysis of California’s prospective electricity sector changes through 2045 highlights the risks of omitting life cycle GHG emissions and their geographic variability in decarbonization planning. They demonstrate that the total GHG emissions of the proposed power sector in California through 2045 will be over 54% higher than reported by California’s Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality, even with optimized siting. The lack of life cycle accounting in decarbonization planning may lead to massive infrastructure changes and economic investments towards target emissions reductions that are ultimately insufficient to prevent or that may even contribute to worsening climate change.
WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin, Ades et al, World Meteorological Organization
Sand and dust storms affect about 330 million in 150 countries. The bulletin shows increasing economic disruption and health impacts. Poor land and water management and drought play a major role. The WMO strengthens monitoring, forecasting and early warnings.
From the Ground Up, Dendas et al., As You Sow
The authors use a scorecard to benchmark major food manufacturers and suppliers on their regenerative agriculture programs, policies, and goals, providing a pathway for investors to assess company performance and long-term value. The scorecard grades 20 major food companies on 15 key performance indicators designed to assess the companies’ regenerative agriculture strategies and disclosures, display the industry’s overall performance, distinguish leaders from laggards, and highlight notable practices. Company scores are based on a thorough review of publicly available information, including companies’ published reports, webpages, and press statements.
Smarter, Smaller, Stronger: Resource-Efficient Generative AI & the Future of Digital Transformation, Verdadero et al., The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
The authors show that small changes to how Large Language Models are built and used can dramatically reduce energy consumption without compromising performance. They advocate for a pivot away from resource-heavy AI models in favor of more compact models. Used together, these measures can reduce energy consumption by up to 90%.
Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, Energy Institute
Total energy demand increased across all regions, but the growth was far from evenly distributed, reflecting stark regional variations shaped by economic development, climate conditions, and energy policy. North America and Europe exhibited the slowest growth rates at 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. However, in absolute terms, Africa had the smallest increase in energy demand, at 0.29 EJ their increase in demand was less than 40% of Europe’s increased energy demand (0.73 EJ). The Asia Pacific region drove 65% of the global energy demand increase and is responsible for 47% of total global energy demand. Total renewable energy supply increased by 8%, of which China alone was responsible for more than the rest of the world combined (at 58%). Global growth in electricity demand continues to outpace growth in total energy demand. All regions experienced significant growth in electricity demand in this new age of electricity, with Asia Pacific and the Middle East registering the greatest growth in electricity generation at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively.
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