The Week That Was: 2025-07-26 (July 26, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is never possible to predict a physical occurrence with unlimited precision.” — Max Planck in The Meaning of Causality in Physics (1953)
Number of the Week: Approximately 2,200, the lowest rate of the century.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins a second discussion of a paper by Howard Hayden on the difference between “climate science” and understanding the greenhouse effect. TWTW then discusses a plea from researcher Forest Mims to keep the Mauna Loa Observatory open which he used to show that a key assumption in global climate models is contradicted by physical evidence. Following this is a discussion of possible misuse of observations from weather balloons. TWTW concludes with a discussion of the legal bias exhibited by the International Court of Justice in its advisory opinion about climate change.
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A Few Notes (Part 2): Last week TWTW introduced an easy-to-understand paper by SEPP Director, Professor of Physics Howard “Cork” Hayden. The Atomic, Molecular, and Atomic (AMO) physicist’s paper, “A Few Notes about Climate and the Greenhouse Effect,” presents some of the problems of Climate Science, in general, and the UN IPCC’s interpretation of the physical science. AMO physics deals with the interactions between light and matter at the atomic and molecular scale. AMO physicists investigate the fundamental behavior of atoms, molecules, and their interactions with electromagnetic radiation.
As stated in previous TWTWs, John Tyndall was the first to experimentally discover why, given its distance from the sun, Earth was warm enough to support Life. Starting with experiments in 1859 using early spectroscopy instruments, tools used to analyze the interaction between matter and electromagnetic radiation, Tyndall authored an 1861 paper published by the Royal Society stating that certain atmospheric gases, later called greenhouse gases, are transparent to sunlight, but delay the transmission of Earth’s radiation to space. By 1874 Tyndall realized the most important gas was water vapor.
Interestingly, the Swedish chemist Arrhenius misunderstood Tyndall’s paper and called water vapor carbonic acid. Carbonic acid is a weak acid combination of carbon dioxide dissolved in liquid water. Water vapor has no dissolved carbon dioxide. This is one of several errors Arrhenius made in promoting the greenhouse effect. In 1896, Arrhenius published a paper estimating that the warming effect from doubling CO2 would be as high as 5 or 6°C (9 to 11°F). In 1906, Arrhenius published a revision in German estimating that the warming effect from doubling CO2 would be about 1.6°C (3°F), an estimate that the UN IPCC and US EPA use. https://friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Arrhenius%201906,%20final.pdf
There was no adequate explanation of Tyndall’s findings until after Max Planck began developing Quantum Theory in 1900 addressing the problem of “blackbody” radiation. The problem is an outgrowth of the Stefan-Boltzmann law. The spectrum of energy emitted by atoms and molecules is not smooth, and Max Planck showed in 1900 that the apparently smooth radiation from blackbodies could be explained by very finely separated energy gaps.. It was not until decades later that the significant issues were resolved. Classical physics assumes that energy is continuous. Quantum Theory is based on electromagnetic energy that exists in discrete packets, quanta (or photons). The energy of a quantum is proportional to the frequency of the radiation, and the constant of proportionality is called Planck’s constant.
Thus, our understanding of the Greenhouse Effect, and the numerous quanta emitted by bodies in space is an outgrowth from classical physics, addressing problems that classical physics cannot resolve.
Unfortunately, as Hayden discussed in his paper current climate science is grounded in classical physics and ignores the issues of infrared radiation emitted by Earth to space and how certain gases interfere with this radiation at discrete frequencies (wavelengths). As Hayden wrote:
“The greenhouse effect involves the interaction (on a wavelength-by-wavelength basis) between infrared and molecules that interact with IR. The discipline is called molecular spectroscopy, and it involves measurements of IR absorption cross-sections, calculations of IR emission probabilities, pressure and temperature broadening of spectral lines, quantum mechanics and (for atmospheric interactions) statistical mechanics. The latter subject discusses the temperature- and pressure-dependent behavior of molecular/IR interactions, populations of excited states, collision dynamics, and so forth.
That is, detailed wavelength-by-wavelength calculations of interactions between IR and GHGs enable scientists to calculate the whole spectrum of IR emitted to space from laboratory measurements of those GHGs, and the (varying) temperature and pressure of the atmosphere.
Students of meteorology, climatology, or climate science learn a terrific amount about how thermal energy moves about, driven by pressure and temperature gradients. They learn about weather balloons, Stevenson screens, evaporation, condensation, rainfall, snowfall, cyclonic storms, the Coriolis effect on moving air, tornadoes, temperature measurements, atmospheric pressure measurements, sunlight intensity, and ocean currents. They learn about determining past temperatures from the measured ratios of oxygen-18 to oxygen-16 and determining past solar intensity from beryllium-10 concentrations. On and on it goes.
Look up the curricula taught at college and university departments dealing with climate, and you will not find courses in quantum mechanics, molecular spectroscopy, and statistical mechanics, the courses they need to understand the interaction between IR and GHGs. That is, climate science—as taught in colleges and universities—is not about the greenhouse effect.
When we read that a ‘consensus of climate scientists’ agrees that the greenhouse effect from our CO2 emissions is doing damage, why should we believe them?”
Similarly, Global Climate Models (GCM) are grounded in classical physics, which works for weather forecasting, but there is no reason weather forecasting models can incorporate the effects of changing greenhouse gases. And Global Climate Models don’t. Instead of grounded on physical evidence, the models are grounded on assumptions, and one of the key assumptions is that an increase in global temperatures, from whatever cause, will be enlarged by an equal warming from water vapor. This assumption is contradicted by observations, and the contradiction is fatal to any forecasts made by Global Climate Models.
Below are excerpts from Hayden’s paper discussing issues such as carbon dioxide, laboratory measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) properties, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Hayden writes [Figures omitted here but are in the post]:
“For all we hear about how CO2 is destroying the planet, you might think that there is a tremendous amount of it in the air. At present, there are only about 400 carbon dioxide molecules for every million molecules in the air—like four pennies out of 100 dollars. That number makes it sound insignificant. On the other hand, all the green plants on the land and all the phytoplankton floating in the oceans and all the animal species that depend on those chlorophyll-using plants depend on the tiny amount of CO2. All life would die if that CO2 vanished, so CO2 is most assuredly not insignificant. About 170 million years ago, the CO2 concentration was 2,500 CO2 molecules per million atmospheric molecules (see Fig. 6). During our most recent glacial period about 18,000 years ago, the CO2 concentration was down to about 180 per million. Somewhere below 150 ppmv vegetation does not survive.
(Notation: in chemistry ppm stands for parts per million by mass. When we talk about CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, we are more interested in how many molecules of a GHG there are compared to the total number of molecules in the atmosphere, the so-called molar fraction or volume fraction. For gases, this quantity is represented by ppmv—parts per million by volume, although ppm is often used.)
Despite its small presence, that little bit of CO2 (presently about 420 ppmv) is a greenhouse gas and an important one. We will discuss details later.
And yes, the amount of CO2 is increasing, mostly because of combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, but also because the oceans are warming and emitting more CO2 (“outgassing”) into the atmosphere. The record through the last several glacial/interglacial periods shows that CO2 changes have occurred 200 to 800 years after temperature changes, so there is some likelihood that some of the increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to climatic conditions hundreds of years ago.
Those who recall Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth will recall the graphs running across the very wide screen showing CO2 and temperature rising and falling together for the last 600,000 years (Fig. 7). Be assured that there were no coal-burning power plants or “gas-guzzling” automobiles spewing CO2 into the air for 600,000 years. If, as Mr. Gore strongly implied, the rise in CO2 caused the temperature to rise, where did the CO2 come from? And, if a reduction in CO2 caused cooling, where did the CO2 go?
If you do not recall the climate scientists raising these obvious questions, it is not your memory that is at fault. Their silence was deafening. [Boldface added]
Mr. Gore’s graph (Fig. 7) extends back about 600 thousand years and shows some visual correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2 content. A close correlation between X and Y could mean: (A): To some extent X causes Y; (B): To some extent, Y causes X; (C) To some extent, both X and Y are caused by something else; or (D) the correlation between X and Y is accidental.
By contrast, Figure 8 extends back 600 million years and shows no correlation between the two quantities.
We will later show a published graph that pretends to show a correlation by using the logarithm of the CO2 concentration, which appears to shrink its variability.”
A key finding regarding greenhouse gases is:
“A good absorber is a good radiator and conversely.”
Hayden discusses the interactions between infrared radiation and molecules of gases. The interactions are in discrete packets in any cross section of any specific area such as a square meter. Importantly, the interactions are not continuous across the area. This is another failing in global climate modeling, the models assume a continuity that does not exist.
Hayden shows the only effort in calculating the infrared radiation emitted to space by the UN IPCC was in 1990. The calculations were not correct.. As Hayden shows, the UN IPCC’s calculations are contradicted by measurements of infrared radiation to space which were observed using the Nimbus satellite flying over Guam (central tropical Pacific in 1970), a full 20 years before IPCC’s errant spectrum was published. The UN IPCC has never bothered to correct its error in this or other observations of infrared radiation to space.
For over 30 years the UN IPCC has omitted key finding regarding the influence of greenhouse gases on global temperatures and has produced highly biased reports. The UN IPCC omitting key observations shows a complete contempt for the scientific method. Further discussion of Hayden’s paper will continue in the upcoming TWTW.
At this point, one can conclude that:
The Greenhouse Effect is essential for Life on Earth by preventing land masses from deeply freezing at night killing growing plant life. The influence of the two significant greenhouse gases, water vapor and carbon dioxide, has diminishing returns. There is no “runaway” greenhouse effect. Other human related gases are insignificant.
Carbon dioxide is essential for photosynthesis: photosynthesis provides the food source for Life on Earth from cyanobacteria to humans. Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere causes life to flourish.
Not only does the IPCC ignore the scientific method, the history of climate and the role of clouds in cooling Earth, but they also ignore modern physics which explains the interaction of electromagnetic energy (light) and matter (molecules). Modern physics explains the Greenhouse Effect, which the UN IPCC and its collaborators claim endanger Life on Earth.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy or https://www.sepp.org/science_papers/A%20Few%20Notes%20about%20Climate.pdf
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Keep It Open: Mauna Loa is an important observatory operated by NOAA that has multiple uses and is an important atmospheric monitoring station. It is known primarily for its measurements of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. These measurements are verified by observations at other observatories. Unfortunately, these measurements are mis-used by the UN IPCC and its collaborators to falsely claim that increasing CO2 is causing dangerous global warming, extreme weather events, etc. The proposed 2026 NOAA budget calls for the closing of Mauna Loa. Writing in WUWT, Anthony Watts discusses an email he received from Forrest M. Mims III, who is seeking to keep Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) open. Mims states:
“While I fully understand how the CO2 record begun there has led to the ongoing climate battle, MLO does far, far more than measure CO2. During my many stays at MLO (225 nights) I have never heard the long-time director, Darryl Kuniyuki, say a single word for, against, or about the CO2 record. He has far more responsibilities up there.
From my email to the Hilo Chamber of Commerce, which played a lead role in the establishment of MLO in the early 1950s, and which is stunned by the closure announcement:
The major factor in the closure of MLO is its pioneering role in measuring carbon dioxide since 1958 and the exaggerated publicity by climate change activists. This is unfortunate, for water vapor, not CO2, is the primary greenhouse gas. I have measured total column water vapor with instruments calibrated at MLO since 1990, and the trend is absolutely flat. (See A 30-Year Climatology (1990–2020) of Aerosol Optical Depth and Total Column Water Vapor and Ozone over Texas in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 103 Issue 1 (2022).
Moreover, MLO does far more than measure CO2. For example:
- MLO is the ultimate site to calibrate a wide range of instruments (including mine since 1993) that measure sunlight, ozone, water vapor, aerosols, and various gases. Many organizations calibrate their instruments at MLO, including the Navy Research Lab, PREDE, Solar Light, MRI, NASA, PNNL, etc.
- MLO data is invaluable for comparison with US, European, Japanese, and Indian satellite data, which drifts over time.
- MLO’s remote location supports emergency communications during hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and other emergency events. (I know this well, for I was staying overnight at MLO when a hurricane arrived.).”
Mims gives ten reasons why MLO should be kept open. TWTW was also interested in the article Mims referenced “A 30-Year Climatology (1990–2020) of Aerosol Optical Depth and Total Column Water Vapor and Ozone over Texas…” The abstract states:
A 30-yr time series (4 February 1990–4 February 2020) of aerosol optical depth (AOD) of the atmosphere, total precipitable water (TPW), and total column ozone has been conducted in central Texas using simple, highly stable instruments. All three parameters in this ongoing measurement series exhibited robust annual cycles. They also responded to many atmospheric events, including the historic volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo (1991), a record El Niño (1998), an unprecedented biomass smoke event (1998), and La Niña that caused the driest drought in recorded Texas history (2011). Reduced air pollution caused mean AOD to decline from 0.175 to 0.14. The AOD trend measured for 30 years by a light-emitting diode (LED) sun photometer, the first of its kind, parallels the trend from 20 years of measurements by a modified Microtops II. While TPW responded to El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions, TPW exhibited no trend over the 30 years. The TPW data compare favorably with 4.5 years of simultaneous measurements by a nearby NOAA GPS (r2 = 0.78). The 30 years of ozone measurements compare favorably with those from a series of NASA ozone satellites (r2 = 0.78). In 2016, 194 comparisons of Microtops II and world standard ozone instrument Dobson 83 at the Mauna Loa Observatory agreed within 1.9% (r2 = 0.81). The paper concludes by observing that students and citizen scientists can collect scientifically useful atmospheric data with simple sun photometers that use one or more LEDs as spectrally selective photodiodes.
This paper provides observational evidence that a key assumption in Global Climate Models is false. There is no long-term increase (30 years) in water vapor as temperature rose from 1990 to 2020, no matter the cause of the rise in global surface temperatures. Thus, the forecasts from Global Climate Models are refuted by atmospheric temperature trends, implicitly by the use of the wrong fields of physics, and now explicitly by assuming water vapor will increase in the atmosphere with rising temperatures. As Mims stated:
“I have measured total column water vapor with instruments calibrated at MLO since 1990, and the trend is absolutely flat.”
To TWTW, it is a mistake to close the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) because many organizations such as the UN IPCC and its collaborators misuse the useful data for their political purposes. The data are valuable, the misuse regrettable. As Mims reports, the fundamental assumption of climate modeling, that a temperature increase from CO2 will be doubled by an increase in water vapor is contradicted by physical evidence, verified by data from MLO. Closing MLO for this reasons is similar to closing Trump Tower if a violent murder was committed there.
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Correct or Misuse of Data? Ron Clutz presents the transcript of the talk Michael Connolly gave to the Heritage Foundation in May. In this talk Connolly relied on weather balloon observations and claimed that the balloon observations showed that the idealized Hadley Cell (a global-scale atmospheric circulation featuring air rising at or near the equator and sinking at medium latitudes) is contradicted. The Hadley Cell, the Ferrel Cell, and Polar Cells are used for weather forecasting.
Connolly made a similar presentation at the 42nd Annual DDP meeting, which members of SEPP attended. Some meteorologists strongly questioned Connolly’s assertion. The Hadley Cell is used to explain the desert regions of the mid-latitudes, such as The Sahara, those in Asia, and in North America (for example Mexico and the Southwestern US).
A search of criticisms of Connolly’s presentation showed that critics objected, claiming that the Global Climate Models use findings from weather balloon observations. But the question is how? As reported in previous TWTWs, John Christy and Ross McKitrick have shown that Global Climate Models fail when their forecasted atmospheric temperatures are tested against atmospheric temperature trends compiled from observations by both satellites and weather balloons. Perhaps this is another indication that ignoring modern Quantum Theory in the Global Climate Models doom the models to failure. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Legal Bias? The International Court of Justice is an organizations in The Hague (Netherlands). According to its website:
“The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations (UN). It was established in June 1945 by the Charter of the United Nations and began work in April 1946.
The seat of the Court is at the Peace Palace in The Hague (Netherlands). Of the six principal organs of the United Nations, it is the only one not located in New York (United States of America).
The Court’s role is to settle, in accordance with international law, legal disputes submitted to it by States and to give advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by authorized United Nations organs and specialized agencies. [Boldface added]
The Court is composed of 15 judges, who are elected for terms of office of nine years by the United Nations General Assembly and the Security Council. It is assisted by a Registry, its administrative organ. Its official languages are English and French.”
In its advisory opinion the court concluded:
For the reasons given above (see paragraphs 113-171), the Court is of the view that the most directly relevant applicable law consists of the Charter of the United Nations, the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, UNCLOS, the ozone layer treaties, the Biodiversity Convention, the Desertification Convention, the customary duty to prevent significant harm to the environment and the duty to co-operate for the protection of the environment, and international human rights law, as well as certain guiding principles for the interpretation of various applicable rules and principles (sustainable development, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, equity, intergenerational equity, and the precautionary approach or principle).
The UNFCCC is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Hayden points out:
“UNFCCC gave the term a highly prejudicial definition:
‘’Climate change’ means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ [Emphasis added.]
According to UNFCCC’s definition, for the half-billion years of life on Earth, there was no such thing as climate change until about 1850. (Similarly, if we define music to be a song sung by Barbra Streisand, then Beethoven never wrote any music.)”
The reasoning starts with (paragraph 113):
“In its request, the General Assembly invites the Court to have ‘particular regard to.’
‘the Charter of the United Nations, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the duty of due diligence, the rights recognized in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the principle of prevention of significant harm to the environment and the duty to protect and preserve the marine environment.’”
The opinion starts with:
“Jurisdiction and discretion.
Questions submitted to the Court are legal in character — The Court has jurisdiction to give the advisory opinion requested — No compelling reasons for the Court to decline to give the advisory opinion requested.
* *
Context of the adoption of resolution 77/276 — Severe and far-reaching consequences of climate change — Most relevant steps taken from 1968 to 2015 at international level to identify risks in order to protect climate system and other parts of the environment — Relevant scientific background — Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constitute the best available science on the causes, nature and consequences of climate change — Findings of the IPCC on the causes and consequences of climate change — Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change — Mitigation and adaptation measures.” [Boldface added]
The advisory opinion of the court is based on the biased science used by the UN IPCC and its collaborators. As shown above, the science of the UN IPCC omits modern Quantum Theory and AMO physics, which are required to understand the greenhouse effect; as well as the role of certain atmospheric gases in keeping the land masses of Earth warm enough at night to support life. And the UN IPCC ignores that CO2 is vital for photosynthesis, which provides the food source for all life from cyanobacteria to humans. Further the UN IPCC ignores climate history and that for the past 2.5 million years Earth has been in an Icehouse phase where the greatest threat to human civilization is a future cooling, whether a Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) event or a severe glaciation.
Further, the threat of increasing sea level rise is another false issue. Earth is not warming rapidly, and long-term coral data and tide-gage data from geologically stable places show a rise of about 1.8 mm per year, or about 7-8 inches per century. Variations occur due to changing ocean currents. Often when first placed into orbit, satellites give false readings until properly calibrated.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC (2008), Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer and Litigation Issues.
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Number of the Week: Approximately 2,200, the lowest rate of the century. Manhattan Contrarian Francis Menton uses two unbiased sources to calculate the death rates from extreme weather events (and climate events) for the first six months of 2025 and compares them with previous years in this century. He finds:
“The following statement (quoted by Pielke) appears in the Executive Summary of the Aon report:
‘At least 7,700 people were killed due to natural disasters during the first half of 2025, which is well below the 21st-century average of 37,250. Majority of the deaths (5,456) occurred as a result of the earthquake in Myanmar.’
An earthquake is not a climate or weather disaster. Take out those 5,456 deaths from the Myanmar earthquake, and you have only 2,244 deaths left that could possibly fall in the climate or weather category.
How does that compare to other recent years? Pielke goes over to the EM-DAT database, where he finds data for deaths from weather and climate-related disasters for each of the years from 2000 to 2024. Here is the chart he compiles for January to June of each year: (see link)”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
A Few Notes about Climate and the Greenhouse Effect
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, SEPP, July 15, 2025
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/A%20Few%20Notes%20about%20Climate.pdf
Forrest Mims: Top 10 Reasons to Keep Mauna Loa Observatory Open
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 23, 2025
Link to: A 30-Year Climatology (1990–2020) of Aerosol Optical Depth and Total Column Water Vapor and Ozone over Texas
By Forrest M. Mims III, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Jan 26 2022
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/1/BAMS-D-21-0010.1.xml
Climate Model Assumptions Contrary to Balloon Data
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 21, 2025
From: Evaluating Climate Models and Observations: CERES presentations to The Heritage Foundation (May 13, 2025)
By Michael Connolly, CERES-Science, May 28, 2025
https://www.ceres-science.com/post/ceres-at-the-heritage-foundation-symposium
2023: The year that broke climate science
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, July 25, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/2023-the-year-that-broke-climate-science
Uncertainties in climate science are growing. In the past some scientists have painted a too-capable picture of it when it was challenged. But as the data increasingly shows us, reality is not as understandable as we thought. A guileless defense of it, as happened during the so-called “blog wars” of a decade ago, will not serve us well.
Short Summary of Observations Until May 2025
By Ole Humlum, Climate4you, Accessed July 25, 2025
https://www.climate4you.com
New Record Set For Deaths From Climate And Weather Disasters
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 23, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-7-23-new-record-set-for-deaths-from-climate-and-weather-disasters
Link to: Global Catastrophe Recap
First Half (1H) of 2025
By Michal Lörinc, et al., Aon, 2025
Link to: Monitoring hazards & disasters worldwide since 1988
By Staff, Emergency Events Database EM-DAT, Accessed July 25, 2025
https://www.emdat.be
[SEPP Comment: The EM-DAT lists as its primary sponsor USAID.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Europe Cannot Afford to Let Climate Delayers Dictate Our Future
By Hugues Stéphane Beaudouin, Renew Europe, July 9, 2025
https://www.reneweuropegroup.eu/news/2025-07-09/europe-cannot-afford-to-let-climate-delayers-dictate-our-future
Leeds Professors: “Only 3 years left” to Avert Climate Catastrophe
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 21, 2025
How the nature of environmental law is changing in defense of the planet and the climate
By Dana Zartner, The Conversation, July 23, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://theconversation.com/how-the-nature-of-environmental-law-is-changing-in-defense-of-the-planet-and-the-climate-258982?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Politics%20Weekly%20%20July%2024%202025%20-%203463635276&utm_content=Politics%20Weekly%20%20July%2024%202025%20-%203463635276+CID_faddd3511ec3cce50b24f728fb02fe1b&utm_source=campaign_monitor_us&utm_term=How%20the%20nature%20of%20environmental%20law%20is%20changing%20in%20defense%20of%20the%20planet%20and%20the%20climate
A 2017 New Zealand law recognizes inherent rights of the Whanganui River
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Restoring sea floor after mining may not be possible, researchers warn
By Amalie Bottollier-Depois Kingston, Jamaica (AFP) July 20, 2025
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Restoring_sea_floor_after_mining_may_not_be_possible_researchers_warn_999.html
Link to study: Long-term impact and biological recovery in a deep-sea mining track
By Daniel O. B. Jones, et al., Nature, March 26, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08921-3
From the abstract: We also reveal that areas affected by plumes from this small-scale test have limited detectable residual sedimentation impacts with some biological assemblages similar in abundance compared to control areas after 44 years.
[SEPP Comment: After an under-sea volcano erupts, is the sea floor restored?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Secret Ruling Class — Why the anonymous Blob needs to be invisible
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 19, 2025
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/07/the-secret-ruling-class-why-the-anonymous-blob-needs-to-be-invisible
The Class with No Name
The public are such fools
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
Is This the Year of Record-Setting Heat-Domes and Flash Floods?
By William Balgord, Cornwall Alliance, July 23, 2025
https://cornwallalliance.org/is-this-the-year-of-record-setting-heat-domes-and-flash-floods
#HaveItBothWays: boreal forests
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
Science has shown that climate change will cause more fires in the boreal forest. Fortunately, science has shown that climate change will lead to fewer fires in the boreal forest. Wait, how can that be? Simple, it’s climate change where you can #HaveItBothWays.
Arkansas & Climate Change: No Warming. No Crisis. No Problem
By Staff, CO2 Coalition, July 2025
Down with carbon
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
The line followed its own pace down oblivious to policies or lack thereof. In his essay, Pielke Jr. points out that the big driver of the [US] reduction [in CO2] has been the gradual changeover from coal to natural gas in power generation. That was partly due to air pollution (not greenhouse gas) rules, and partly due to good old market incentives, specifically the fracking revolution that made gas much cheaper than coal. Another driver of the change is that the industrial side of the economy has grown slowly compared to the services sector which uses a lot less energy. So even if the power grid were as carbon-intensive as before, GDP would be less energy-intensive and less emissions-intensive. So governments yapped and firms acted.
Cutting Threat of Giant Wildfires By Axing Harmful Clinton-Era Forest Policies
By Bonner Russell Cohen, Real Clear Energy, July 22, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/22/cutting_threat_of_giant_wildfires_by_axing_harmful_clinton-era_forest_policies_1124281.html
Dramatically reversing federal management of the nation’s natural resources, an over two-decades-old rule that has left millions of acres of U.S. Forest Service lands at high risk of catastrophic wildfires is being put to the torch by the Trump administration.
Energy & Environmental Review: July 21, 2025
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, July 21, 2025
After Paris!
Where Are The Updated NDCs?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 23, 2025
The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition and taking into account each country’s capacity.
Worse still for those bothered about such things, one of the 27 is the US, who submitted its plan before Trump took office and promptly withdrew from Paris! I think we can safely assume their NDC is now in the [dust] bin.
COPocalypse Now
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, July 23, 2025
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The ‘Fruitful’ Results of Increasing CO2
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, July 21, 0225
The effect of additional CO2 on Whorled Dropseed
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
From the CO2Science archive.
Problems in the Orthodoxy
BP Replaces Pro-Net Zero Chairman Amid Return to Oil and Gas
By Will Jonew, The Daily Sceptic, July 21, 2025
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Let’s Rethink the Renewable Fuel Standard
By Kristen Walker, Real Clear Energy, July 23, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/23/lets_rethink_the_renewable_fuel_standard_1124310.html
The two-decade Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) should be re-examined for its efficacy. Another well-intentioned government program with unintended consequences, the RFS inflicts harm on consumers, ecosystems, land, air, and fuel refiners while simultaneously propping up farmers and the biofuel industry.
Model Issues
Another Day, Another Model of Future Climate Doom
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 23, 2025
Link to paper: Earth’s future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
By Ja-Yeon Moon, et al., Earth System Dynamics, European Geosciences Union, July 17, 2025
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1103/2025
Earth’s climate response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions occurs on a variety of spatial scales. To assess climate risks on regional scales and implement adaptation measures, policymakers and stakeholders often require climate change information on scales that are considerably smaller than the typical resolution of global climate models (100 km)). To close this important knowledge gap and consider the impact of small-scale processes on the global scale, we adopted a novel iterative global earth system modeling protocol. This protocol provides key information on earth’s future climate and its variability on storm-resolving scales (less than 10 km).
[SEPP Comment: Scale is not the main issue and taking false models to greater resolutions is absurd. The main issue is using the right scientific concepts and testing the models against all unbiased data.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
SH and Tropics Lead UAH Cooling June 2025
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 21, 2025
Changing Weather
How to Save Seattle (And Other Locations) from Weather-Related Tragedy
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 24, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/07/how-to-save-seattle-and-other-locations.html
The flooding tragedy in Texas had a component common to nearly all recent weather-related disasters:
The weather predictions and warnings were excellent, but local governments, utilities, and other responsible parties did not use the excellent meteorological guidance effectively. [Boldface in original.]
CLAIM: Heatwaves to increase in frequency, duration under global warming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 23, 2025
Link to paper: Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming
By Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, et al., Nature Geoscience, July 7, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01737-w
Still warm
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
P.S. Eventbrite also emailed us “Say yes to fun this season with our top outdoor experiences – from movie screenings and sports to on-the-water adventures and more.” See? When it warms up, people head outdoors. What do they know that “experts” don’t?
Changing Climate
The climate change cult is encountering more resistance these days
By Gary Abernathy, Empowering America, Via Ron Clutz, His Blog, July 24, 2025
[SEPP Comment: The graph: “Eastern European alpine glacier history during the Holocene period: Earlier warming periods led to the complete melting of many eastern European glaciers, allowing trees to grow at much higher altitudes than today” should be carefully and repeatedly explained to every judge on the International Court of Justice who voted that the public has a right to a stable climate!]
Climate Oscillations 10: Aleutian Low – Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (ALBSA)
By Andy May, WUWT, July 21, 2025
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
West Arctic, NW Passage See 3rd Highest Sea Ice Extent In Over 2 Decades
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 19, 2025
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Climate Change Is Reducing, Not Increasing Food Costs, Mainstream Media
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, July 23, 2025
Claim: Climate Crisis Food Price Inflation Delivered Victory to President Trump
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 21, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
WSJ Claim: Extreme Weather Driving Global Food-Price Surges
By Joseph D’Aleo, Meteorologist/Climatologist, July 24, 2025
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/wsj_claim_extreme_weather_driving_global_food_price_surges/
The authors claim: Extreme weather events are driving short-term surges in food prices around the world. Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, but it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world. The spikes are linked to heat, drought and heavy rainfall conditions, the report said.
Actually, extremes of weather are part of our climate system and are not worsening.
The warming that is claimed is primarily at nights and focused in urban locations. The urban heat island as it is called, actually reduces freeze and frost problems, benefiting crops early and late in the season.
Fact Checking The Climate Claims
By I & I Editorial Board, July 22, 2025
The New York Times wants readers to believe that the June Air India crash that killed 241 is a curtain-raiser for future air crashes caused by climate change. Milloy had the best response: “No other plane crashed because of global warming. Just that one.”
If the climate tale were undeniably true, the activists in and out of the media would not have to exaggerate, disinform, and make connections that don’t exist. The fact that they feel they have to provides a clear insight into their duplicitous nature.
Texas Flood Hysteria: Media’s Climate Blame Drowned by History and Data
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 20, 2025
Facts say this was a natural event that has happened before and the facts remain unchanged; floods have always been part of life in Texas Hill Country and always will be. The real solution is to heed warnings, avoid rebuilding in known flood zones, and resist the urge to politicize every natural disaster as proof of “climate crisis.” If history tells us anything, it’s that ignoring the lessons of the past is a far greater danger than any supposed climate tipping point.
BBC Wants Poor Countries To Sue Us For Making Them Better Off
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 23, 2025
Hail No! NBC, Climate Change Isn’t Making Hail More Damaging
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 22, 2025
Indeed, NBC’s hailstorm climate segment is a masterclass in misleading science communication, conflating speculation with certainty, omitting key data and historical context, and promoting a self-serving narrative designed to secure federal funding for a particular group of researchers.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The fantasy land of “Fossil Fuel Subsidies” where even a car accident, a traffic jam are a subsidy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 22, 2025
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/07/the-fantasy-land-of-fossil-fuel-subsidies-where-even-a-car-accident-a-traffic-jam-are-a-subsidy
Link to report: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Surged to Record $7 Trillion
Scaling back subsidies would reduce air pollution, generate revenue, and make a major contribution to slowing climate change
By Simon Black, Ian Parry & Nate Vernon-Lin, IMF, Aug 24, 2023
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion
Nova: The main source of this meme is the IMF, so I went to their two-year-old report data to create the graphs that the IMF won’t.
Literally, 80% of the “subsidies” are what they’d like to charge oil and gas companies for things like the imaginary damage that CO2 does on simulated Earths in broken climate models. The IMF calls this “implicit subsidies”. You can I might call it a brazen fake (or worse).
The climate scaremongers: The $7trillion fossil fuel con-trick
By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, UK, July 25, 2025
The $7 Trillion Fossil Fuel Subsidy Swindle
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2025
Link to: How much in subsidies do fossil fuels receive?
Estimates range from less than $1 trillion to $7 trillion. Where do these numbers come from?
By Hannah Ritchie, Our World In Data, January 26, 2025
https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-subsidies-fossil-fuels
From Ritchie: The $7 trillion figure includes the social and environmental costs of fossil fuels. [18% in the form of explicit subsidies.]
Homewood: Indeed, just thirteen countries account for $517 billion of the total.
[SEPP Comment: The 13 countries are led by Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and India.]
Suspicions Mount as Met Office Continues to Open More Junk Temperature Measuring Sites
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, July 23, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Separate comment by Paul Homewood: “What may have started simply because of incompetence now has the unmistakable whiff of corruption. Why else would the Met Office still be deliberately and knowingly opening up junk weather stations? Eight out of the thirteen sites opened in the last five years, for instance.
If the Met Office wants to keep the few remaining shreds of credibility it still holds, it must immediately remove from its network all junk and near junk sites, which are totally unsuitable for climatological purposes. That must include Class 3 sites as well.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Poll Finds New Jersey Residents Prioritize Energy Security Over Radical Climate Policies
By Gabriella Hoffman, Real Clear Energy, July 23, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/23/poll_finds_new_jersey_residents_prioritize_energy_security_over_radical_climate_policies_1124575.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Extreme weather misinformation ‘putting lives at risk,’ say Blob experts who want to censor everyone else
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 23, 2025
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/07/extreme-weather-misinformation-putting-lives-at-risk-say-blob-experts-who-want-to-censor-everyone-else
The poor suffering Blob experts are losing the information war
They can’t seem to get a break, even with all the Governments, bankers, media, universities and the United Nations to help them.
Broken but not record
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
As that National Post story goes on to admit:
“The phenomenon known as ‘blow-ups’ occurs when concrete expands and has nowhere to go, leading to sudden fractures or cracks. It mostly affects older, heavily used or previously repaired highways during high temperatures, especially ones that aren’t layered with asphalt.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
House Oversight Looking Into Donor-financed Law Enforcement
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, July 22, 2025
The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is looking into “Bloomberg Philanthropies for Partisan Activism with State Attorneys General,” starting with ‘Bloomberg Philanthropies’ and its project run out of New York University “embedding” activists in law enforcement offices to pursue the donor’s priorities.
[SEPP Comment: How many privately subsidized-AG’s are there?]
Questioning European Green
Energy Secretary Chris Wright to IEA: Reform or the US Exits
By Tilak Doshi, His Blog, July 21, 2025
https://tilakdoshi.substack.com/p/energy-secretary-chris-wright-to
The IEA’s original mandate was straightforward: to safeguard energy security for its 31 member countries, primarily by coordinating responses to supply disruptions and providing data-driven insights for energy markets. Yet, over the past decade, the agency has pivoted to become a cheerleader for renewable energy while demonizing fossil fuels, which still account for roughly 80% of global energy consumption. Its forecasts, once grounded in empirical analysis, now often reflect wishful thinking, overestimating the adoption rates of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) while downplaying the enduring role of oil, gas and coal.
Steel 2050: Revisited
New report challenges Net Zero feasibility for steel industry
By the late Rod Beddows, Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2025
Press release: https://thegwpf.org/publications/steel-2050-revisited/
Report: https://thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2025/07/Steel-2050-Revisited.pdf
The hypocrisy of Labor’s attacks on Reform’s net zero plans–Ross Clark
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2025
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
Canada’s per capita GDP growth lagged well behind the OECD average in every year between 2015 and 2024, according to World Bank data, while the government’s own figures show that GHG emissions declined by a measly 6.6 per cent between 2015 and 2023.” So if you want a “demonstration project” for the Green New World, well, there it sits, brown, red and ugly.
Flight from alarmism
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
But they miss the much bigger point: normal people may have been intimidated into saying they believe there’s a man-made climate crisis and will happily see others sacrifice to stop it. They may even have been lulled into thinking they really were willing to make lifestyle changes, provided they weren’t required to give anything up. But their behavior, from the cars they buy to the planes they fly in, suggests that they no more believe in it than the green-virtue-signaling celebrities jetting to Jeff Bezos’s lavish wedding.
Climate Change Weekly # 549 — Australia’s Not Quite All in on Net Zero
By H. Sterling Brunett, The Heartland Institute, July 18, 2025
Green Jobs
Where Did All The Green Jobs Go?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2025
Amazingly there are more jobs in environmental bureaucracy than there are in the whole of the renewable sector, which employs 77800.
[SEPP Comment: If green jobs need subsidies are they “sustainable”?]
Funding Issues
EXCLUSIVE: How Biden EPA Scrambled To Beat Clock And Route Billions To Political Allies
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, July 19, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/07/19/exclusive-biden-epa-scrambled-route-billion-political-allies
National Science Foundation staffers express concerns about ‘politically motivated and legally questionable’ Trump actions
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 22, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5413880-national-science-foundation-nsf-trump-grants-doge
Litigation Issues
World’s top court paves way for climate reparations
By Richard Carter with Nick Perry and Kelly Macnamara, The Hague (AFP) July 23, 2025
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Worlds_top_court_paves_way_for_climate_reparations_999.html
Link to: Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change
By Advisory Opinion, ICJ, July 23, 2025
UN top court: Failure to act against climate change could violate international law
By Ian Swanson, The Hill, July 23, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5415989-icj-climate-law-obligation
In remarks prior to reading out the opinion, ICJ (International Court of Justice) President Yuji Iwasawa stressed that the climate questions raised in the proceedings “represent more than a legal problem.”
“They concern an existential problem of planetary proportions that imperil all forms of life and the very health of our planet,” Iwasawa said.
[SEPP Comment: What if the UN “science” is wrong?]
ICJ Issues Biased Advice on Climate Change
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 23, 2025
Link to: International Court of Justice
By Staff, ICJ, July 23, 2025
https://www.icj-cij.org/court
Climate Activism In Judicial Drag
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, July 24, 2025
If international courts now claim the right to set social, economic, and technological policy for the entire planet by declaratory fiat, who needs parliaments, governments, scientific panels, or—heaven forbid—public debate?
Highest World Blobocrat Court decrees Perfect Climate is a “human right” — funnels money to Friends, Lawyers and Bankers
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 24, 2025
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/07/highest-world-blobocrat-court-says-perfect-climate-is-a-human-right-funnels-money-to-friends-lawyers-and-bankers
It’s a great day for lawyers
A court at the top of the UN Faraway Tree has proclaimed that rich countries have an obligation to “protect the climate system”.
[SEPP Comment; More reason to evaluate the costs and benefits of remaining in the UN?]
China hails ‘positive’ ICJ ruling on climate reparations
By AFP Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP) July 24, 2025
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_hails_positive_ICJ_ruling_on_climate_reparations_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Where is the physical evidence that global sea level rise is increasing? That the sizes of the island states are decreasing?]
Supreme Screw-up: Climate Fallacies Embraced by Canada’s Highest Court
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, July 23, 2025
From: Supreme Screw-up: How Canada’s Highest Court Got Climate Change Wrong
By Jack Wright, C2C Journal, Jan 6, 2025
We cannot allow single-issue adherents (often wielding generous federal funding) to repurpose our courts on pretextual bases and achieve goals that they were denied through the ballot box.
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The Energy Subsidy Trap: How the One Big Beautiful Bill Proved Subsidies Are Nearly Impossible to Remove
By Cullen Neely, Real Clear Energy, July 22, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/22/the_energy_subsidy_trap_how_the_one_big_beautiful_bill_proved_subsidies_are_nearly_impossible_to_remove_1124285.html
[SEPP Comments: Many subsidies were reduced to strict time limits.]
UK Energy Companies Terrified of Reform’s Threat to Cancel Green Subsidies
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 20, 2025
The truth about Britain’s taxpayer cash-soaked wind farm industry–Daily Mail
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 19, 2025
Dorenell is being paid £116.79/MWh this year under its CfD, and this price will go up each year for inflation. Market prices since April have averaged £59/MWh.
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Trump EPA To Remove “Greenhouse Gases” From List Of Dangerous Pollutants
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, July 24, 2025
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-epa-remove-greenhouse-gases-list-dangerous-pollutants
[SEPP Comment: Durden may overstate the decision in Massachusetts v. EPA. The real issue is: Can the US government do anything to stop or mitigate climate change? The answer is NO. Since peaking in 2003 to 2007 at about 6 billion metric tons (MMT), thanks to the gas revolution, US emissions have been around 5 MMT since 2020. The US cannot stop China and South Asia from increasing their emissions. Starting in 2006 China’s emissions exceeded those of the US and 2023 reached 11.9 MMT. In 2023 India exceeded 3 MMT and may soon exceed the US. In 2023 Asia produced 22.6 of the world total of 37.8 MMT. US litigation or regulation is frivolous and costly.]
https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions
EPA Extends Coal Ash Compliance Deadlines, Citing Utility, Contractor Strain
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, July 24, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/epa-extends-coal-ash-compliance-deadlines-citing-utility-contractor-strain/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Energy Issues – Non-US
China Breaks Ground for World’s Largest Hydropower Station
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, July 23, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/china-breaks-ground-for-worlds-largest-hydropower-station/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
China has started construction of what would be the world’s largest hydropower dam. Chinese Premier Li Qiang on July 19 led a ceremony marking groundbreaking for the Motuo Hydropower Station, a project with an estimated cost of $167 billion that could generate as much as three times the electricity of the 22.5-GW Three Gorges project.
The Motuo project has sparked concerns about how the new dam could enable China to control the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows south into India and also Bangladesh.
International Energy Agency Policies Hurt Africans
By Brenda Shaffer, Real Clear Energy, July 24, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/24/international_energy_agency_policies_hurt_africans_1124816.html
One of the most important developments this century has been a major increase in energy access across the globe: Billions of people have gained access to modern energy, a precondition for rising from poverty.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world not benefitting from this transformation. In Africa, energy poverty is growing. For the first time since World War II, access to electricity is also backsliding in Africa.
New Offshore Wind Strike Prices More Than Double Cost Of Gas Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 24, 2025
“A Contract for Difference (CfD) is a private law contract between a low carbon electricity generator and the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC), a government-owned company. The Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme is the government’s main mechanism for supporting low carbon electricity generation.
CfDs incentivize investment in renewable energy by providing developers of projects with high upfront costs and long lifetimes with direct protection from volatile wholesale prices, and they protect consumers from paying increased support costs when electricity prices are high.”
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Sep 3, 2024
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/contracts-for-difference
[SEPP Comment: A guarantee against lowering costs to the consumer?]
Energy Issues – Australia
Renewable energy exposed
Originally published in The Spectator, July 2025
By Alan Moran, His Blog, July 21, 2025
https://amoran.substack.com/p/renewable-energy-exposed
The government is focused on what it regards as an inevitable transition to Net Zero emissions. This means replacement of coal by wind and solar and eventually by ‘green’ hydrogen from water.
For its part, the Opposition remains in pursuit of a watered-down version of Net Zero and has used considerable political capital in promoting nuclear power – a source of energy that in most of Australia, even without our thickets of regulation, would always be more expensive than coal-derived electricity.
Notwithstanding slogans that renewables are the cheapest form of energy and spurious estimates of different energy costs, the ongoing call for renewables subsidies is a dead giveaway.
Energy Issues — US
The U.S. Energy Information Administration Needs to Fix How It Reports Renewable Power Capacity
By Jonathan Lesser, National Center for Energy Analytics, July 23, 2025 [H/t WSJ]
[SEPP Comment: Increasing solar capacity has no value at midnight.]
Energy Realism and the Future of American Reliability
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, July 23, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/23/energy_realism_and_the_future_of_american_reliability_1124317.html
Let’s start with some hard numbers that tell the real story. In PJM—the grid operator serving 65 million Americans from Chicago to the Mid-Atlantic—capacity market prices just jumped nearly 10 times higher for 2025-26, adding $12.5 billion in costs that will flow straight to consumers. In MISO, covering much of the Midwest, summer capacity auction prices spiked 20 times over the previous year’s price.
Why? Because as FERC Commissioner Mark Christie put it bluntly: reliability issues aren’t from adding renewables to the grid—they’re from the premature retirement of dispatchable resources. Translation: we’re shutting down power plants that work 24/7 and replacing them with sources that work when the weather cooperates.
[SEPP Comment: The issue is a combination of both adding wind and solar plus retiring reliable generation.]
PJM capacity prices set another record with 22% jump
The Trump administration will likely seize on the auction results to justify keeping thermal power plants, namely coal, in PJM from retiring, according to analysts with Capstone.
By Ethan Howland, Utility Dive, July 23, 2025
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-prices/753798
JM expects the increase to record-high of capacity prices for the 12-month period that starts in June 2026 could lead to 1.5% to 5% bill increases for some ratepayers, depending on what state they are in.
[SEPP Comment: An electric capacity auction is when reliable electricity generators bid to secure contracts to supply power during peak future demand up to three years ahead. Wind and solar cannot reliably produce electricity; thus, they could bankrupt themselves if they secured such contracts and do not bid. The PJM auctions in 2024 and 2025 indicate grim price increases for consumers.]
Robert Bryce: US Is Screwed on Rare Earths—And China’s Not Letting Go
By Staff, Financial Sense, Transcript of Podcast, June 27, 2025
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21322/robert-bryce-us-screwed-rare-earths-and-chinas-not-letting-go
Washington’s Control of Energy
How the Trump AI Action Plan will Wreck Green Energy
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 24, 2025
If I’ve understood this correctly, every future federal approval for energy supply will be assessed on whether it advances the USA towards the goal of a reliable, dispatchable grid fit for ensuring US AI dominance.
Department of Energy Terminates Taxpayer-Funded Financial Assistance for Grain Belt Express
From Energy.gov. Via WUWT, July 23, 2025
The Department of Energy (DOE) today announced the Loan Programs Office (LPO) has terminated its conditional commitment for the Grain Belt Express Phase 1 project, a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line intended to connect wind and solar capacity across Kansas and Missouri. The conditional commitment, which would have provided a taxpayer-funded loan guarantee of up to $4.9 billion dollars, was issued by the Biden administration in November 2024 – one of many conditional commitments that were rushed out the door in the final days of the Biden administration.
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
It’s A Gas
Fourteen years ago, I listed 10 reasons why natural gas “will be a key fuel of the future.” Since then, global gas use has grown faster than any other form of energy.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, July 22, 2025
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/its-a-gas
[SEPP Comment: Good map shows extent of natural gas basins in the US. The extension of the article is paywalled.]
Return of King Coal?
Why Should We Keep New Mexico’s Remaining Coal Plant in Service? It’s Essential.
By Jim Constantopoulos, Real Clear Energy, July 21, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/07/21/why_should_we_keep_new_mexicos_remaining_coal_plant_in_service_its_essential_1124002.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Small Modular Reactors are a game-changer for Africa and the world
By Ronald Stein, Robert Jeffrey, Olivia Vaughan, America Outloud News, July 221, 2025
https://www.americaoutloud.news/small-modular-reactors-are-a-game-changer-for-africa-and-the-world
Mad Miliband: “The future of [nuclear] fusion energy starts now”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 20, 2025
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Great ‘Zero-Carbon Renewables’ Deception
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, July 22, 2025
Although direct imports from China to U.S. have been reduced to insignificant levels due to U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar modules, Chinese-linked firms have simply moved their operations to Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
These nations – and more than 131 solar producers there – now account for over 80% of all solar modules imported into the U.S. It is likely that four in five solar modules installed in the U.S. come from Chinese-affiliated firms in southeast Asia, which depend on carbon-intensive energy sources.
No honest engineer – or careful speaker – would call wind and solar “carbon-free.”
[Boldface added]
No More Easy Ride for Wind and Solar (OBBB guidance, risks ahead)
By Lisa Linowes, Master Resource, July 22, 2025
For investors, the stakes are higher than ever. Without solid legal opinions, verifiable supplier chains, and consistent enforcement policies, many may choose to exit the market. For those who stay, the cost of risk will rise—along with the overall cost of renewable energy deployment.
And that’s exactly the point. For years, critics warned that renewable subsidies enriched private developers while delivering uncertain public value
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
BP abandons Australia’s biggest renewables project (26GW and $55b) to focus on oil and gas
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 25, 2025
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/07/bp-abandons-australias-biggest-renewables-project-26gw-and-55b-to-focus-on-oil-and-gas
Another day — another setback for the Mega Green Hydrogen Dream
Link to: Green hydrogen retreat poses threat to emissions targets
By Pietro Lombardi, Nina Chestney and Riham Alkousaa, Reuters, July 23, 2025
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/green-hydrogen-retreat-poses-threat-emissions-targets-2025-07-23
“Green hydrogen was an inflated expectation that has turned into a valley of disillusionment,” said Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade, chief executive of Portuguese power company EDP (EDP.LS)
“What’s missing is the demand. There are 400 million euros ($464.2 million) of subsidies for hydrogen in Spain and Portugal, but we need someone to buy the hydrogen.”
It is at least three times more expensive than natural gas as a fuel for power generation, for example, and twice as expensive as grey hydrogen. The latter is produced from natural gas and coal and is already used in industries such as oil refining and production of ammonia and methanol. [Boldface added]
Drax emissions rise 16% as power station remains UK’s top carbon emitter
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 20, 2025
Located near Selby in North Yorkshire, Drax started life as a coal-fired power station when it was opened in 1974 but started co-firing biomass by 2010 in response to government concerns about the UK’s carbon emissions.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Long Term Electricity Storage
By Edward Ring, What’s Current?, Accessed July 23, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7860533?e=cd9fa89d1e
Link to: Synthetic Geothermal Power website
Synthetic Geothermal Power combines Concentrated Solar Thermal & Geological Thermal Energy Storage for daily power dispatch with integral storage of 1,000 hours – 41 days
By Staff, Synthetic Geothermal Power, Accessed July 23, 2025
https://synthetic-geothermal.com
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Steeper Road for Zero-Emissions Vehicles
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, July 23, 2025
The 2025 Chevy Silverado EV weighs over 8,000 pounds, a four-ton pickup truck!
[SEPP Comment: The Silverado EV’s max payload is about 1,750 pounds (and cost about $91,000). Silverado gas versions have payload capacities of 1,750 to 2,280 pounds (starting at $37,000).
Vauxhall owner Stellantis slumps to £2bn loss after botched bet on hydrogen
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2025
And if you believe that claim…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 23, 2025
But when we read things like “THIS NEW EV BATTERY PATENT CLAIMS EXTREME RANGE & ULTRA-FAST CHARGING (5 MINUTES FLAT)” our immediate reaction, quoting from an email containing same, is “I heard it too but I should think it’s highly unlikely. Presumably if they had you could also charge your cellphone in about eight seconds. And a lot of things would explode.” Including press credibility.
It is clear that battery technology will continue to improve, sometimes incrementally and sometimes by leaps and bounds. But the laws of physics will not change. The kind of charging speed they’re describing would, literally, melt current charging cables.
Biden’s Green Dream of EV Postal Truck Fleet Is a $10 Billion Failure
When kicking off the boondoggle “Green New Deal” project, one Biden climate advisor described it as “the Biden climate strategy on wheels.” True, that.
By Leslie Eastmann, Legal Insurrection, July 19, 2025
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/07/bidens-green-dream-of-ev-postal-truck-fleet-is-a-10-billion-failure
As of this month, the project is well behind schedule despite taxpayers forking over $1.7 billion — prompting Capitol Hill Republicans to try to rescind the remaining nearly $1.3 billion earmarked from the IRA.
Health, Energy, and Climate
New study reaches landmark conclusion about impact of wind turbines on human health: ‘Not a cause-and-effect relationship’
“Not saying some people weren’t having a reaction though as the mind can be a powerful tool.”
By Christine Dulion, The Cool Down, July 24, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to: Cognitive neuroscience approach to explore the impact of wind turbine noise on various mental functions
By Agnieszka Rosciszewska, et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Mar 3, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-04645-x
We also tested the subjective evaluation of the stress induced by wind turbine noise and the annoyance it causes. Control conditions included silence and road traffic noise (participants were blind to the nature of acoustic variables). The findings of this pilot study reveal that short-term exposure to wind turbine noise with a sound pressure level corresponding to the real-world situation (i.e., 65 dB SPL) does not adversely affect any of the examined cognitive functions and is not perceived as more stressful or bothersome than road traffic noise. [Boldface added.]
We also indicate how important the use of a cognitive neuroscience approach in future research may be for an objective assessment of the impact of wind farms on human cognition.
[SEPP Comment: A study of 45 students exposed to the noise part time similar to normal conversation or a busy café (or student union). Some people are significantly bothered by such noises.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Great British Energy solar panels were made in China
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2025
Ed Miliband promised no solar panels from Chinese slave labor. Just because China says these ones did not use slave labor does not actually mean they are telling the truth.
ARTICLES
1. The Real Risk to the Electric Grid
Power shortages are coming thanks to wind and solar subsidies. Here’s how they distort energy investment.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 20, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-real-risk-to-the-energy-grid-wind-solar-power-data-shortage-c297e93b?mod=hp_opin_pos_3
“Democrats are attacking the GOP’s budget bill for phasing out subsidies for wind and solar power, claiming this will cause power shortages and higher electric rates. The evidence suggests the opposite, as a new Energy Department study illustrates.
As we’ve been writing for years, the reliability of the U.S. electrical grid is in trouble. The Energy report projects potential power shortfalls in 2030, as 104 gigawatts of baseload power retire in the next five years. But here’s the really bad news: That shortfalls will exist even if that production is replaced, as expected, with 209 gigawatts of the mostly solar and wind generation under development.
Americans would lose power in 2030 for an average of 817.7 hours (34 days), assuming typical weather conditions. If heat waves or storms stress the grid, outages could reach 55 days. Even without plant shutdowns, Americans would lose power for 269.9 hours (11 days) amid demand growth. The power shortages would be worse in middle America, where demand is growing fastest owing to AI data centers and renewables are displacing coal and gas.
How can this be? The answer is that the Inflation Reduction Act turbo-charged subsidies for wind and solar in ways that are distorting energy investment. Because the subsidies can offset more than 50% of a project’s cost, solar and wind became more profitable to build than new baseload gas plants. The credits enable wind and solar to under-price coal and gas plants in competitive power markets.
Any wonder that solar, wind and batteries (which also qualify for IRA subsidies) are projected to make up 93% of new utility-scale electricity capacity this year? Coal, nuclear and gas plants are still needed to back up solar and wind, but they can’t make a profit running only some of the time. Thus, many have been closing, jeopardizing grid reliability.
The renewable lobby claims that new gas plants can’t be built in time to meet rising power demand. Ergo, the argument goes, taxpayers must subsidize wind and solar to meet electric demand. But if what they say is true, why do wind and solar need subsidies? There will be a market incentive to build wind and solar anyway.
It’s true there’s a shortage of new gas turbines owing to surging global demand. But turbine manufacturers are expanding production, and the phaseout of the IRA tax credits will provide them with more certainty to make investments in new capacity.”
The editorial discusses issues with delivering gas turbines and building power lines to serve wind and solar, then concludes with:
“The claim that tax credits reduce electric rates is contradicted by experience. Wind and solar must be backed by peaker gas plants or batteries, which both cost more than three times as much as baseload power. Renewables also cause price spikes when there are power shortages, and they require more transmission investments to balance fluctuations in loads and frequencies.
All of this is why Texas’s residential power prices have risen some 40% over the last seven years. The renewable lobby says the financial benefits of the tax credits are passed onto electric customers, which may be true when state-regulated utilities build projects. But the credits usually pad the profits of independent generators.
The best way to make the grid reliable again is to let supply and demand work in energy markets without the distortions of mandates and subsidies. The GOP budget bill takes a step in that direction that should be welcomed.”
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