Climate Change Could Worsen Prolonged Wind Droughts – Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

More bad news for fragile, weather dependent power generation systems – but send more money.

Climate change could make ‘droughts’ for wind power 15% longer, study says

30 July 2025  11:24

Extreme “wind droughts” that reduce power output from turbines for extended periods could become 15% longer by the end of the century across much of the northern hemisphere under a moderate warming scenario.

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According to the study, “prominent” wind droughts have already been documented in Europe, the US, northeastern China, Japan and India.

As the planet warms, wind droughts will become longer in the northern hemisphere and mid-latitudes – especially across the US, northeastern China, Russia and much of Europe – the paper says.

The study – which focuses on onshore wind – warns that “prolonged” wind droughts could “threaten global wind power security”.

However, they add that research into the effects of climate change on wind supply can help “prepare for and mitigate the adverse impacts” of these prolonged low-wind events.

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Read more: https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-could-make-droughts-for-wind-power-15-longer-study-says/

The referenced study;

• Article
• Published: 28 July 2025

Prolonged wind droughts in a warming climate threaten global wind power security

Nature Climate Change (2025)Cite this article

Abstract

Prolonged low-wind events, termed wind droughts, threaten wind turbine electricity generation, yet their future trajectories remain poorly understood. Here, using hourly data from 21 IPCC models, we reveal robust increasing trends in wind drought duration at both global and regional scales by 2100, across low- and high-CO₂ scenarios. These trends are primarily driven by declining mid-latitude cyclone frequencies and Arctic warming. Notably, the duration of 25-year return events is projected to increase by up to 20% under low warming scenarios and 40% under very high warming scenarios in northern mid-latitude countries, threatening energy security in these densely populated areas. Additionally, record-breaking wind drought extremes will probably become more frequent in a warming climate, particularly in eastern North America, western Russia, northeastern China and north-central Africa. Our analysis suggests that ~20% of existing wind turbines are in regions at high future risk of record-breaking wind drought extremes, a factor not yet considered in current assessments.

Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02387-x

We already knew wind droughts are a big problem for people who mistakenly think there will always be wind power available;