BANGKOK – Where one royal deal collapses in Thailand, another rises in its wake.
Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul was voted today by the 492-member parliament as the nation’s next prime minister, marking a new but likely short-lived chapter in the kingdom’s ever-volatile politics.
Anutin, whose third-ranking conservative party (69 seats) broke with Peua Thai (140 seats) in June over control of the powerful Interior Ministry, persuaded the top-ranking progressive People’s Party (143 seats) to back his bid for the premiership.
At the dramatic same time, Thaksin Shinawatra, Peua Thai’s patron and by all accounts de facto leader, appeared to flee the country on his private jet on Thursday, ahead of today’s vote and a September 9 court ruling that could land him in prison.
The People’s Party’s support came on the condition that Anutin prioritize constitutional reforms and call new elections within four months. Underscoring the parties’ ideological divide, the People’s Party chose to remain in opposition and declined to take any ministerial posts in the new minority government.
For reasons still unclear, the People’s Party rejected Peua Thai’s last-ditch bid to elevate its last eligible prime minister candidate, the 77-year-old ex-attorney general Chaikasem Nitisiri, who had vowed to immediately dissolve parliament and hold snap elections.
A NIDA opinion poll conducted in late June—just before a wave of pro-military nationalism swept the kingdom amid armed clashes with Cambodia—showed voters strongly favored the People’s Party (46%) over Pheu Thai (11.5%) and Bhumjaithai (9.8%). Another NIDA poll earlier that month showed only 9.6% supported Anutin as Prime Minister.
Analysts already expect Anutin and allied conservative forces to slow-walk promised constitutional reform, which will likely require a Constitutional Court ruling on if a referendum is needed, to extend his time in office beyond four months and lift his and his party’s limp popularity.
Bhumjaithai is renowned for bringing “medical” marijuana to Thailand, in what one related advisor has touted as “Amsterdam on steroids” for its wild and woolly rollout, but it’s not immediately clear it has a coherent or innovative agenda to spark a flagging economy that some say is in terminal demographic and competitive decline.
The parliamentary vote came after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted in an August 29 Constitutional Court ruling that found she breached ethics and integrity rules in a private fawning phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.
In that now-historic tete-a-tete, later leaked in pique by Hun Sen, Paetongtarn referred to a top Thai military official as “opposed” to her government amid border tensions that later exploded into violence, resulting in military and civilian deaths on both sides and a surge of Thai nationalism that targeted the Shinawatras as selling out national interests.
The court ruling effectively unraveled a widely assumed palace deal that let ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra—Peua Thai patron and Paetongtarn’s father—return from 15 years of self-exile under a royal pardon in exchange for unwavering, yellow-garbed loyalty to the crown.
Anutin, the Hofstra University-educated scion of a politically connected construction company, was moving on the premiership well before the bombshell ruling, holding quiet meetings and making promises to both coalition and opposition party leaders in anticipation of Paetongtarn’s fall from grace.
Crucially, those included a reported meeting with palace Lord Chamberlain Air Chief Marshal Satitpong Sukvimol, widely regarded as King Vajiralongkorn’s most trusted aide and arguably the palace’s most powerful non-royal figure.
Those royal connections were on full display in April when Anutin, then Interior Minister, traveled with King Vajiralongkorn to Bhutan and walked closely behind him during the monarch’s first official overseas visit – marking a notable break with traditional diplomatic protocol.
Anutin may thus be seen as a trusted pair of hands for handling sensitive royal affairs, including the anticipated announcement of Princess Bajrakitiyabha Mahidol’s passing. The princess, Vajiralongkorn’s eldest daughter, has been in a coma since collapsing at a provincial military camp in December 2022.
Still, analysts and diplomats are left wondering why Thaksin’s presumed royal deal collapsed, though many believe it may have unravelled in part because Thaksin openly advertised the notion that he and his daughter enjoyed special palace protection.
Some now wonder if Thaksin’s royally enabled return, revival and now seemingly calculated court-ordered demise were a deliberate strategy to co-opt, divide and neuter his red-garbed, supposed pro-poor and sometimes anti-royal movement – once viewed as the greatest threat to the conservative establishment embodied by the palace, military and big family monopolies.
Thaksin’s value relied largely on restraining the upstart People’s Party, which has previously advocated strongly for royal reform, including to the lese majeste law, which is wielded widely and severely to squelch any criticism of top royal family members.
The party – now twice dissolved, most recently for campaigning on royal reform – has more recently muted its calls for monarchical change and instead targeted Paetongtarn’s ineffectual government while pushing for reform to the military-drafted 2017 constitution.
Analysts and diplomats are already speculating that the People’s Party may have backed Anutin over Chaikasem partly on a hint of leniency in a pending lese majeste-related case that threatens to ban 44 of its members, including 25 sitting MPs. If true, it could mark the first sign of a palace-People’s Party rapprochement.
Thaksin’s surprise flight, allegedly for specialist medical treatment, while political parties were still jostling for position ahead of today’s prime minister vote suggests he now realizes his previous deal is done and the protection he and his daughter previously counted on from conservative rivals is gone.
That will become crystal clear on September 9, when the Supreme Court rules on yet another ethics case – this time on whether Thaksin’s six-month stay in a VIP police hospital suite for alleged health reasons should count toward serving his royally commuted prison sentence.
The case is rich with royal symbolism, evoking the legacy of King Bhumibol Adulayedej (Rama 9), whose Harvard-trained father established Siriraj Hospital – the kingdom’s first modern medical facility – where Bhumibol opted to spend his last months and days.
Dr Prasit Watanapa, former director of Siriraj Hospital and dean of its Faculty of Medicine, has led the charge against the police doctors who signed off on Thaksin’s contested health claims. Numerology-inclined Thais note that the ruling is scheduled for the ninth day of the ninth month, likely beginning at 9 am.
Thaksin has said he plans to return to Thailand in time for the verdict, which could send him to prison, but few believe he actually will. If the court rules in his favor, he may return to revive his political party and clan’s fast-flagging fortunes. If it rules against, he’ll likely remain in exile – though this time as a spent, not potent, political force.