Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2025
Posted on 18 September 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The weak land carbon sink hypothesis, Randerson et al., Science Advances
Over the past three decades, assessments of the contemporary global carbon budget consistently report a strong net land carbon sink. Here, we review evidence supporting this paradigm and quantify the differences in global and Northern Hemisphere estimates of the net land sink derived from atmospheric inversion and satellite-derived vegetation biomass time series. Our analysis, combined with additional synthesis, supports a hypothesis that the net land sink is substantially weaker than commonly reported. At a global scale, our estimate of the net land carbon sink is 0.8 ± 0.7 petagrams of carbon per year from 2000 through 2019, nearly a factor of two lower than the Global Carbon Project estimate. With concurrent adjustments to ocean (+8%) and fossil fuel (−6%) fluxes, we develop a budget that partially reconciles key constraints provided by vegetation carbon, the north-south CO2 gradient, and O2 trends. We further outline potential modifications to models to improve agreement with a weaker land sink and describe several approaches for testing the hypothesis.
The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades, Skinner et al., Communications Earth & Environment
The spatial extent of an extreme heat event influences the total exposure of people and natural systems to heat-related stresses, straining water, energy, and emergency management resources. Here, we quantify how the contiguous area of individual heat wave events varies across heat wave types, time of year, and in response to observed climate change within the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Dataset. Across the mid-high latitudes, cold season heat waves cover areas that are 1.25 to 3 times larger than warm season events, and daytime heat waves impact 1.25 to 2 times the area of nighttime heat waves. The reverse relationship is found throughout tropical regions. Average heat wave size, regardless of type or season, has increased across most land in recent years, often by 1.5 to 2 times in the mid-latitudes. The contiguous spatial extent of dry soil anomalies and lower tropospheric subsidence events have also increased in some locations, potentially contributing to the increases in heat wave size.
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, Quilcaille et al., Nature
Extreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes, but typically focuses on single events. Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events. Here we show that climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed. This work relies on the expansion of a well-established event-based framework1. Owing to global warming since 1850–1900, the median of the heatwaves during 2000–2009 became about 20 times more likely, and about 200 times more likely during 2010–2019. Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change. The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850–1900. Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16–53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate. We, therefore, establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves. Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes.
Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change, Carlson et al., Nature Climate Change
Over the last decade, attribution science has shown that climate change is responsible for substantial death, disability and illness. However, health impact attribution studies have focused disproportionately on populations in high-income countries, and have mostly quantified the health outcomes of heat and extreme weather. A clearer picture of the global burden of climate change could encourage policymakers to treat the climate crisis like a public health emergency.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
China’s Green Leap Outward: The rapid scaleup of overseas Chinese clean-tech manufacturing investments, Xiaokang Xue and Mathias Larsen, Net Zero Policy Industrial Lab, Johns Hopkins University
A rapid acceleration in overseas investment by Chinese green technology manufacturers is reshaping the global clean-tech landscape. Since 2022 alone, investments have surged past USD 220 billion, spanning sectors such as batteries, solar, wind, new energy vehicles (NEVs), and green hydrogen. These investments now reach 54 countries across every major region. The authors offer the first comprehensive overview of China’s expanding global green manufacturing footprint, drawing upon our database. For example, Chinese firms have pledged at least USD 227 billion across green manufacturing projects. A high-end estimate approaches USD 250 billion. This surge of overseas green manufacturing investment is unprecedented; it now surpasses the USD 200 billion (in current 2024 dollars) invested by the US over four years of the Marshall Plan, at a time of similar American dominance of manufacturing in key industries.
Taking Stock 2025, King et al., Rhodium Group
The first seven months of the second Trump administration and 119th Congress have seen the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory. After the Biden administration adopted meaningful policies to drive decarbonization, Congress and the White House are now enacting a policy regime that is openly hostile to wind, solar, and electric vehicles and seeks to promote increased fossil fuel production and use. In this year’s Taking Stock report—Rhodium Group’s annual independent outlook of the evolution of the US energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current policy—we find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035, a meaningful shift from our 2024 report, which showed a steeper decline of 38-56% by that point. Emissions outcomes vary due to a range of expectations for economic growth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends, which we combine to create low, mid, and high emissions scenarios. In the high emissions scenario, the most pessimistic outlook on decarbonization, the pace of decarbonization more than halves through 2040, with annual average GHG reductions of 0.4% from 2025 through 2040 compared to 1.1% from 2005 through 2024. In the mid and low emissions scenarios, the pace of decarbonization accelerates instead, with annual average reductions of 1.4% and 1.9% through 2040, respectively, representing a 22% and 70% acceleration, compared with the pace of the last two decades.
126 articles in 54 journals by 750 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Global Water Cycle Pattern Amplification: Contributing Factors and Mechanisms, Lyu et al., Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022278
Neglecting land–atmosphere feedbacks overestimates climate-driven increases in evapotranspiration, Zhou & Yu, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02428-5
Observations of Clouds and Radiation Over King George Island and Implications for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, Rowe et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042787
Planetary albedo and reflected shortwave flux: Basic characteristics, mechanisms of change and future projections, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105274
Observations of climate change, effects
Coastal flooding in Southwest Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, Paramygin & Sheng, npj Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1038/s44304-025-00141-z
Global Increase of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Rate Toward Coasts, Qi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115500
Recent Intensification of Arctic Winter Anticyclonic Circulation Linked to Local Sea Ice Loss and SST Warming, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044995
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, Quilcaille et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9
The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives, Zhou et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s00376-025-5094-1
The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades, Skinner et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02661-y
Tracking marine heatwaves in the Balearic Sea: temperature trends and the role of detection methods, Fernández-Álvarez et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4065
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Long-Wavelength Steric Sea Level and Heat Storage Anomaly Maps by Combining Argo Temperature and Salinity Profiles with Satellite Altimetry and Gravimetry, Chambers & Reinelt Reinelt, Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-510
Multi-Year Glaciological and Meteorological Observations on Debris-Covered Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 2016–2023, Petersen et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70032
Tracking marine heatwaves in the Balearic Sea: temperature trends and the role of detection methods, Fernández-Álvarez et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4065
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate, Muñoz et al., Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117038
Impacts of a Reduced AMOC on the South America Mean Climate and Extremes, Meccia & Blázquez, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044103
Linking High-Amplitude Quasi-Stationary Waves With Concurrent Humid-Heat Extremes in a Warming World, Lin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl116260
Seasonally Asymmetric Projected Changes in Austral Atmospheric Waves, Karbi & Chemke, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117333
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Comparative Evaluation of Decadal Predictions of Global SST Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Datasets, Pan et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8923
Evaluating SINGV-RCM for Long-Term High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over Southeast Asia, Prasanna et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8932
Generative Downscaling and Bias Correction of Multivariable Earth System Model Simulations, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117397
Reduced Warm Bias in the Surface Southern Ocean by Improved Parameterization of Wind-Driven Vertical Mixing in an Eddy-Resolving Coupled Global Climate Model, Song et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115504
Sensitivity of the Representation of Polar Lows to Typical Climate Model Resolutions, Moreno-Ibáñez et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1319
Cryosphere & climate change
Evolution of glacial lakes and southernmost GLOFs in the Cordillera Darwin and Cloue Icefields (Tierra del Fuego) between 1945–2024, Izagirre et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1641167
Greenland ice sheet runoff reduced by meltwater refreezing in bare ice, Cooper et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62281-0
Meltwater ponding has an underestimated radiative effect on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Ryan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62503-5
Multi-Year Glaciological and Meteorological Observations on Debris-Covered Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, 2016–2023, Petersen et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70032
Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of Annual Glacier Mass Balance in Central Asia (2000–2020) Using Machine Learning, Peng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd043191
Sub-shelf melt pattern and ice sheet mass loss governed by meltwater flow below ice shelves, Jesse et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058
The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability, Verjans et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067
Warming-wetting and continentality co-modulate the effect of desertification on permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.001
Sea level & climate change
Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts, Perry et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09439-4
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Connecting Warming Patterns of the Paleo-Ocean to Our Future, Liu et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001719
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Tubastraea coccinea (Lesson, 1830), a coral species with high invasive potential, can benefit from the synergistic effects of ocean warming and acidification, Vilanova Gallardo et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107430
A nature-based conservation framework that aligns opportunities for bird biodiversity, climate mitigation, and human equity, Bateman et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-16693-z
Adaptation Strategies of Small-Scale Marine Fisheries in Response to Climate Change, Resource Changes, and Sudden Systemic Shocks, Shah et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70019
Climate change is associated with a higher extinction risk of a subshrub in anthropogenic landscapes, Conquet et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70150
Drivers of the pre-season drought thresholds triggering earlier autumn foliar senescence in the Northern Hemisphere, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62847-y
Early-Life Heat Stress Impairs Cognition and Alters Its Covariation With Behaviour in Zebrafish, Gatto et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72139
Forest greenness stability in response to climate change along forest edge–core gradients, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110850
Forest Productivity Enhancement Over the Past Two Decades Is Associated With Plant–Microbial Interactions, Pang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70505
Habitat and Trophic Specialization Among Greenland Cod (Gadus ogac) Morphotypes in the Context of Climate Change Resilience, Chan et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71908
Limited microbial community responses of marine macroalgae to artificial light at night and moderate warming conditions, Caley et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107536
Marine heatwaves and eutrophication jeopardize the seagrass Halodule wrightii and associated infauna, Peixoto Dias et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107441
Non-uniform responses of small fragilarioid taxa to environmental changes in global mountain lakes during the last century, Peng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105078
Predicting Forest Tree Leaf Phenology Under Climate Change Using Satellite Monitoring and Population-Based Genomic Trait Association, Pfenninger et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70484
Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts, Perry et al., Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09439-4
Response Modes of Global Vegetation to Extreme Drought, Bai et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70488
Response of treeline dynamics to climate change on the northern slope of Taibai Mountain, China, Zhao et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126402
Scope for waterfowl to speed up migration to a warming Arctic, Linssen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02419-6
Selective breeding boosts oyster resilience to ocean acidification via energy budget modulation, Jiang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107544
Showy dragonflies are being driven extinct by warming and wildfire, Nalley & Moore, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02417-8
The Effects of an Initial Extreme Drought and Chronic Change in Precipitation on Plant Biomass Allocation in a Temperate Grassland, Vörös et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.71625
Withstanding the heat: Resilience of free-living coralline algae to marine heatwaves, Nannini et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107538
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Direct analysis of dissolved CO2 in coastal waters: development and validation of a simple method, Rangel-García et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107414
Long-Term Human Disturbance Accelerates Soil Carbon Loss in Earth’s Driest Ecosystems, Zhang & Li, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70489
Methane Emissions in Asian Wetlands During 2010–2020: Insights From an Online-Coupled Microbial Functional-Group-Based Model, Zhang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005991
Methane-cycling microbiomes in soils of the pan-Arctic and their response to permafrost degradation, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02765-5
Sectoral contributions of high-emitting methane point sources from major US onshore oil and gas producing basins using airborne measurements from MethaneAIR, Warren et al., Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-10661-2025
Soil Carbon Availability Drives Depth-Dependent Responses of Microbial Nitrogen Use Efficiency to Warming, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70490
Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific, Shankle et al., Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63774-8
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The weak land carbon sink hypothesis, Randerson et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr5489
Decarbonization
Advancing Circularity in Battery Systems for Renewable Energy: Technologies, Barriers, and Future Directions, Munonye et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500255
Experimental study on passive cooling of photovoltaic panel by harvesting atmospheric water using hygroscopic salt, R et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101756
Research trends in the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles: A systematic literature review, al Irsyad et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101746
The embodied political ecology of solar energy: Tracing socio-ecological impacts through solar photovoltaic global supply chains, Park & Summerfield-Ryan, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104212
Geoengineering climate
Africa must lead the governance of solar radiation management, Quagraine et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02420-z
Responsible research for space-based climate geoengineering, Bellamy, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104213
Stratospheric Injection Lifetimes, Schoeberl et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043928
Aerosols
Dust aerosols modulate cloud radiative forcing with surface cooling and atmospheric warming across the Chinese mainland, Liu et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121515
The impact of aerosol forcing on the statistical attribution of heatwaves, Kraulich et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100803
Climate change communications & cognition
Communicating the Impact of Climate Change on Health: The Role of Psychological Distance and Personal Narratives on Climate Change Health Worries and Actions, Zhang et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2556190
Effective, Fair or Intrusive? The Role of Futures Consciousness in Environmental Policy Acceptance, Chua et al., Journal of Banking & Finance Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.06.014
Exposure to climate risks and youth engagement with climate change, Blessman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1657820
Man enough to save the planet? Masculinity concerns predict attitudes toward climate change, Haselhuhn, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102772
Psychometric properties of the Inventory of Climate Emotions and its links with mental health and climate actions in a Chinese sample, Shao & Yu, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102751
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptation Strategies of Small-Scale Marine Fisheries in Response to Climate Change, Resource Changes, and Sudden Systemic Shocks, Shah et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70019
Climate-smart agriculture and natural forests: synergistic approaches for climate change resilience and combating hunger in Ethiopia, Tesema & Mekoya, Agroforestry Systems Open Access 10.1007/s10457-025-01309-2
Enhancing carbon flux estimation in a crop growth model by integrating UAS-derived leaf area index, Guo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110776
Heat, drought, and compound events: Thresholds and impacts on crop yield variability, Bogenreuther et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110836
Impacts of Climate, Organic Management, and Degradation Status on Soil Biodiversity in Agroecosystems Worldwide, Sánchez?Cueto et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70486
Investigating farmers’ perceptions and climate change related apprehensions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, Javed et al., Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100746
Living with temperature changes: Salicylic acid at the crossroads of plant immunity and temperature resilience, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady3327
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Perception of and adaption to climate change: the case of groundnut production of costal island in Bangladesh, Begum et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1657507
Projecting the global spread of xylella fastidiosa under climate change using maxent modeling, Alqahtani et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-18286-2
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S., Bokhari et al., Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006203
Assessing regional flood risks under climate change: a machine learning and spatial clustering approach, Luo et al., The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 10.1057/s41288-025-00365-0
Biophysical Impacts of Earth Greening Modulate Average and Extreme Water Availability, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117797
Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate, Muñoz et al., Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117038
Coastal flooding in Southwest Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, Paramygin & Sheng, npj Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1038/s44304-025-00141-z
Global Increase of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Rate Toward Coasts, Qi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115500
Recent Intensification of Arctic Winter Anticyclonic Circulation Linked to Local Sea Ice Loss and SST Warming, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044995
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, Quilcaille et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9
The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives, Zhou et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s00376-025-5094-1
The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades, Skinner et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02661-y
Tracking marine heatwaves in the Balearic Sea: temperature trends and the role of detection methods, Fernández-Álvarez et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4065
Evaluation of the impact of climate and land use / land cover change on hydrological response in Gelna watershed, Wldmchel & Osore, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000483
Global Increase of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Rate Toward Coasts, Qi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115500
Increased Drought Synchronicity in Indian Rivers Under Anthropogenic Warming, Chuphal & Mishra, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001850
The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives, Zhou et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s00376-025-5094-1
Urban flood response to climate change and stormwater management practices, Mondal & Davis, 10.1038/s43017-025-00723-5
Climate change economics
Are the risks and uncertainties as constraints to investing in climate-smart innovations a red herring? Financial cost-benefit analysis evidence from 11 countries in Africa and Asia, Ng’ang’a et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100734
European banks face significant vulnerability to ecosystem degradation and climate change, Ceglar et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02543-3
Predictive Modelling of the Energy and Climate Cost of Ghana’s Economic Growth, Sokama-Neuyam et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2373
Toward sustainable development: the nexus between financial development, renewable energy, and carbon emissions in China, Frontiers in Environmental Science Sun et al., Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1594858
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing the effectiveness of municipal climate actions: A scoring system for residential energy retrofit initiatives, Jadidi et al., Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114885
Closing emission gaps in border carbon adjustments for chemicals and plastics, Minten et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01622-9
Gender and socio-economic determinants of rural household adoption of clean energy practices in Uganda: Implications for energy transition pathways, Tereka et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101780
Mitigating carbon emissions in an aging society: The role of generational shifts in household carbon footprints, Wu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114867
Neglect to recognition: Embracing women as key agents in climate solutions, Biswas & Barua, 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104216
Public low-carbon related characteristics and their (dis)approval of nuclear energy in China against the backdrop of climate change: an analysis of influence mechanism, Su et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1655286
Public policy and battery-electric bus deployment in Latin America: A critical review through the Brazilian lens, Consoni et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101801
Science on the judicial stage: Contested scenarios in the climate court case against Shell, van Beek et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104210
Social dynamics can delay or prevent climate tipping points by speeding the adoption of climate change mitigation, Dutta et al., The European Physical Journal Plus Open Access 10.1140/epjp/s13360-025-06033-5
The EU battery carbon footprint rules need urgent attention, Rajaeifar et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01844-3
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate information use in transportation planning: a survey of Metropolitan Planning Organizations, Archie et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100742
Coordinate to combat Pakistan’s climate-driven disasters, Khan & Liu, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03004-9
Estimating the impacts of increasing temperatures and the efficacy of climate adaptation strategies in urban microclimates with deep learning, Buster et al., Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102603
Understanding Climate Change Perception and Migration Determinants Among the Agrarian Community in the Coastal Region of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve in India: A Sustainable Livelihood Security Approach, Das, Journal of International Migration and Integration 10.1007/s12134-025-01303-8
Climate change impacts on human health
Communicating the Impact of Climate Change on Health: The Role of Psychological Distance and Personal Narratives on Climate Change Health Worries and Actions, Zhang et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2556190
Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change, Carlson et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02399-7
Mechanistic Modeling of Aedes aegypti Mosquito Habitats for Climate-Informed Dengue Forecasting, Yasanayake et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001376
Public Health Risks Under Temporally Compounding Climate Extremes, Zhang et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70107
[Personal View] Priority climate and health modelling needs, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74
Climate change & geopolitics
Africa must lead the governance of solar radiation management, Quagraine et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02420-z
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China and renewable energy, Attílio, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114893
Other
Blurred boundaries at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: the role of integrated assessment models in the science–society contract, Robertson, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.250286
The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments, Al Khourdajie, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000706
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate impacts are real — denying this is self-defeating, Editorial , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02868-1
Climate research in the Global South, Editorial, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-63884-3
Editorial: Advancing carbon reduction and pollution control policies management: theoretical, application, and future impacts, Peng et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1687660
“The work of thought”–The machine learning revolution can be a revolution for our understanding of the Earth System, Oldham-Dorrington et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000710
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
China Energy Transition Review 2025, Yang et al., Ember
China’s surge in renewables and whole-economy electrification is rapidly reshaping energy choices for the rest of the world, creating the conditions for a decline in global fossil fuel use. The authors analyze China’s progress towards a clean energy future, explores the reasons why it is accelerating and deepening, and sets out some implications for the rest of the world. They draw on data from Chinese government sources, international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency and Ember itself, together with insights from structured expert interviews. The authors highlight important trends in sectors, such as renewable generation and electrification of sectors, such as industry, buildings and transport, and analyses the underlying drivers. They then examine how trade with China, China’s energy diplomacy and business support are driving clean energy progress particularly in emerging economies.
WHO global water, sanitation and hygiene: annual report 2024, World Health Organization
Global access to safely managed drinking-water services rose from 71.0% in 2018 to a projected 87.3% by 2025; safely managed sanitation from 53% to 80%; and basic hygiene services from 74.5% to a projected 88.8%. These gains have driven notable reductions in diarrheal disease, underscoring the foundational role of water, sanitation and health (WASH) in health improvement and World Health Organization’s (WHO) corporate accountability, reinforcing WASH as a core driver of results across universal health coverage, health emergencies and healthier populations. These achievements result from country-level leadership driving domestic investment, supported by WHO’s technical guidance and resources. WHO’s work focused on its priority intervention areas, including normative guidance, monitoring, regulation, climate-resilient WASH, WASH in health care facilities, emergency response and financial tracking, delivered in collaboration with multiple partners.
New Zealand Energy Quarterly June 2025 Summary, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand Government
Hydro generation was down 6.8% the June 2024 quarter, with lower hydro storage in April contributing to this. This reduction in hydro generation was compensated for with an increase in generation from other renewable sources. The combination of increased generation from renewable sources and lower electricity demand (meaning that less supply was required) saw a reduction in the level of electricity generation required from non-renewable sources. As a result, generation from gas and coal generation were both down (by 0.9% and 38.3% respectively) and the share of electricity generation from renewable sources increased 2.7 percentage points to 84.1%.
Taking Stock 2025, King et al., Rhodium Group
The first seven months of the second Trump administration and 119th Congress have seen the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory. After the Biden administration adopted meaningful policies to drive decarbonization, Congress and the White House are now enacting a policy regime that is openly hostile to wind, solar, and electric vehicles and seeks to promote increased fossil fuel production and use. In this year’s Taking Stock report—Rhodium Group’s annual independent outlook of the evolution of the US energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current policy—we find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035, a meaningful shift from our 2024 report, which showed a steeper decline of 38-56% by that point. Emissions outcomes vary due to a range of expectations for economic growth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends, which we combine to create low, mid, and high emissions scenarios. In the high emissions scenario, the most pessimistic outlook on decarbonization, the pace of decarbonization more than halves through 2040, with annual average GHG reductions of 0.4% from 2025 through 2040 compared to 1.1% from 2005 through 2024. In the mid and low emissions scenarios, the pace of decarbonization accelerates instead, with annual average reductions of 1.4% and 1.9% through 2040, respectively, representing a 22% and 70% acceleration, compared with the pace of the last two decades.
Global Hydrogen Compass 2025, Blanco et al., Hydrogen Council and McKinsey and Company
Committed1 investment in clean hydrogen has now surpassed $110 billion across 510 projects, up $35 billion from last year and growing on average over 50% year–over–year since 2020. Of the 6 million tons per annum (mtpa) of committed clean hydrogen capacity today, 1 mtpa is already operational. After accounting for delays and expected attrition, the current project pipeline could support up to 9–14 mtpa of clean hydrogen capacity by 2030, depending on how much supply secures offtake. Locking in offtake remains the critical element for most supply projects to move forward. Approximately 3.6 mtpa of binding offtake is in place today globally, representing about 60% of committed project capacity.
China’s Green Leap Outward: The rapid scaleup of overseas Chinese clean-tech manufacturing investments, Xiaokang Xue and Mathias Larsen, Net Zero Policy Industrial Lab, Johns Hopkins University
A rapid acceleration in overseas investment by Chinese green technology manufacturers is reshaping the global clean-tech landscape. Since 2022 alone, investments have surged past USD 220 billion, spanning sectors such as batteries, solar, wind, new energy vehicles (NEVs), and green hydrogen. These investments now reach 54 countries across every major region. The authors offer the first comprehensive overview of China’s expanding global green manufacturing footprint, drawing upon our database. For example, Chinese firms have pledged at least USD 227 billion across green manufacturing projects. A high-end estimate approaches USD 250 billion. This surge of overseas green manufacturing investment is unprecedented; it now surpasses the USD 200 billion (in current 2024 dollars) invested by the US over four years of the Marshall Plan, at a time of similar American dominance of manufacturing in key industries.
EIPC Interregional Transmission Transfer Capability Study Report, Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative
The study was designed to identify the baseline Interregional Transfer Capabilities (ITCs) for the existing bulk power system and transfer constraints between regions. The authors also focused on assessing the transfer capability between regions under extreme weather conditions where the interregional transfer capability has the most potential to provide value to all regions within the interconnection. The authors took a unique and innovative approach by using credible stress scenario tests that rely on actual meteorological data and trends.
Iowa Electric Generation. Condition of the State 2025, Iowa Environmental Council
Iowa’s renewable energy leadership is often praised and for good reason, with a majority of electricity needs supplied by wind and solar. But as the state approaches higher levels of renewable use, our electric utilities continue to own and operate massive coal operations, polluting Iowa’s air and water, risking health, and charging us unnecessary costs on our utility bills. Business as usual, where Iowa utilities continue to burn coal well into the next several decades, is not necessary, not responsible, and will not make the fast but reliable clean energy transition we need possible. The authors analyze the state of Iowa’s energy generation, where Iowa’s emissions are coming from, and the impacts Iowa’s remaining fossil fuel generation has on our environment, health, and pocketbooks.
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