- Tropical Storm Gabrielle’s Formation and Location: Tropical Depression Seven strengthened into the seventh named storm, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located approximately 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
- Forecast Track and Impacts: The storm is expected to track northward, avoiding a direct hit on the Caribbean, but is forecast to cause rough surf, rip currents, and scattered outer rainbands in the Lesser Antilles.
- Limiting Factors and Potential: Gabrielle is currently encountering hostile conditions like wind shear and dry air, but it still has the potential to strengthen into the season’s second hurricane.
- Long-Term Outlook and Season Timing: The storm poses no threat to the U.S. mainland, but could approach Bermuda next week, and the most active period of the Atlantic season is mid-September through mid-October.
The Atlantic hurricane season has become active again following an almost three-week pause in development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that Tropical Depression Seven intensified into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, making it the seventh named storm of the 2025 season.
As of Friday, Gabrielle was positioned approximately 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Current forecast models show the storm tracking northward, which should steer it away from making a direct impact on the Caribbean. However, residents of the Lesser Antilles are still being advised to anticipate rough surf, rip currents, and scattered rainbands throughout the upcoming weekend.
Meteorological analysis suggests that Gabrielle is currently facing environmental challenges, specifically wind shear and dry air masses. These factors are likely to inhibit any significant short-term strengthening. Despite these limitations, if conditions become more favorable, there is a possibility that Gabrielle could achieve hurricane strength in the next few days. If this occurs, it would be only the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
The long-term trajectory for Gabrielle remains uncertain, though some models propose that the storm could approach Bermuda early next week. For the U.S. mainland, Gabrielle currently poses no direct threat, with the most probable outcomes involving either a turn toward the northeast or its eventual dissipation near the Bermuda Triangle.
In addition to Gabrielle, the NHC is also tracking a separate tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of Africa. Forecasters have assigned this wave a low chance of development over the next week, as it is expected to encounter the same unfavorable atmospheric conditions—like wind shear and dry air—that are presently impacting Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
Meteorologists wish to stress that while the statistical peak of the hurricane season has technically concluded, the period between mid-September and mid-October is typically one of the most active parts of the season. Authorities are calling upon residents in coastal and hurricane-vulnerable regions to maintain a state of vigilance and ensure their preparations are current for any future storm activity.