Abstract
Rivers and streams are an important pathway in the global carbon cycle, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from their water surfaces to the atmosphere1,2. Until now, CO2 and CH4 emitted from rivers were thought to be predominantly derived from recent (sub-decadal) biomass production and, thus, part of ecosystem respiration3,4,5,6. Here we combine new and published measurements to create a global database of the radiocarbon content of river dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 and CH4. Isotopic mass balance of our database suggests that 59 ± 17% of global river CO2 emissions are derived from old carbon (millennial or older), the release of which is linked to river catchment lithology and biome. This previously unrecognized release of old, pre-industrial-aged carbon to the atmosphere from long-term soil, sediment and geologic carbon stores through lateral hydrological routing equates to 1.2 ± 0.3 Pg C year−1, similar in magnitude to terrestrial net ecosystem exchange. A consequence of this flux is a greater than expected net loss of carbon from aged organic matter stores on land. This requires a reassessment of the fate of anthropogenic carbon in terrestrial systems and in global carbon cycle budgets and models.
The recent Nature study titled “Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems” is not only a rigorous piece of scientific work—it’s also a spectacular indictment of the so-called “settled science” of climate change. This 2025 paper is a flaming arrow into the heart of carbon cycle certainty, unearthing yet another inconvenient truth: over half of the CO2 emitted from rivers comes from carbon sources that are hundreds to thousands of years old—not from recent fossil fuel emissions or current biological activity.
Let that sink in. Climate models and carbon budgets, paraded as settled science by every bureaucrat, green politician, and eco-apocalyptic influencer on Earth, have been built on the foundational assumption that riverine CO2 is part of a contemporary, short-term biosphere loop. Turns out, they’ve been routing old ghosts through a new story.
According to the authors:
“The largest proportion (52 ± 16%) of river CO2 emissions is sourced from millennial-aged carbon…” and “7 ± 1%…from petrogenic carbon” .
That’s right. Over half of these emissions are from old carbon stores—carbon that, until now, was presumed stable, buried, and irrelevant to modern emission tallies. In other words, nature has its own deeply entrenched carbon leaks, and our modern instruments are just now getting around to noticing them.
The implications are vast and devastating—to the credibility of those who have weaponized science to promote radical climate policy. Here are a few of the most laughable consequences of this study for the “settled science” narrative:
1. The Carbon Budget Is a Fantasy
The entire idea of a “carbon budget” depends on the assumption that we can accurately track all natural and anthropogenic carbon sources and sinks. The paper’s authors explicitly state:
“This previously unrecognized release…equates to 1.2 ± 0.3 Pg C yr⁻¹, similar in magnitude to terrestrial net ecosystem exchange”.
Translation: We were missing a carbon leak as big as the net carbon uptake of all land-based ecosystems. That’s like losing a financial ledger entry equivalent to your annual revenue and still claiming your books balance.
2. Climate Models Can’t Model What They Didn’t Know Existed
This isn’t a rounding error. This is a previously invisible carbon flux at a planetary scale—entirely omitted from mainstream Earth system models. The authors even note:
“Current numerical models of river carbon transport and emission also fail to account for inputs from old carbon sources”.
For those of us who have long argued that climate models are glorified curve-fitting exercises based on selectively tuned assumptions, this study is pure vindication. It’s an outright admission that the models are not merely imperfect—they’re structurally blind to major natural processes.
3. Climate Science Is Still in Diapers
If 59% of riverine CO2 emissions come from millennial or older carbon pools, then just how settled can the science be? The authors describe this as a “planetary-scale release” of old carbon and conclude:
“We provide evidence for a previously unrecognized, planetary-scale release of old, pre-industrial-aged carbon from land to the atmosphere through rivers”.
Imagine building a trillion-dollar global policy framework on a dataset that left out half the equation. It would be funny if it weren’t tragic.
4. Anthropogenic Carbon Attribution Is Now a Shell Game
One of the central talking points of climate activists is that CO2 in the atmosphere is traceable and largely caused by human emissions. This study kicks that stool out from under them. After adjusting the models to include this new understanding, the study finds that only:
“41 ± 16% of river CO2 emissions…could contain recent anthropogenic-derived carbon”.
That means nearly 60% of river-based CO2 emissions are from carbon predating modern industrial activity. This calls into question the accuracy of anthropogenic attribution models—models which governments use to justify taxes, regulations, and top-down restructurings of energy and agriculture.
5. So Much for Predicting the Future
The authors admit they don’t know whether the increase in old carbon emissions is from natural variability or anthropogenic disturbance. In their own words:
“Whether or not anthropogenic perturbation has increased the leak of old carbon…remains a notable knowledge gap”.
Yet we’re told with absolute certainty that the Earth will warm by 1.5°C unless we ban gas stoves, eat bugs, and shut down reliable energy. This study exposes just how deeply uncertain and unresolved the feedbacks in the carbon cycle remain.
6. Rivers: Nature’s Carbon Cheaters
The new conceptual model developed in this paper (see Fig. 3b on page 13) is a quiet revolution. It admits that the traditional model of river emissions—where CO2 was thought to be recent and local—is deeply flawed. Instead, rivers act as carbon transport systems, redistributing ancient carbon from soils, rocks, and geologic layers into the atmosphere. That’s not just a different magnitude—it’s an entirely different mechanism.
7. Policy Has Left Science Behind
The study’s authors call for a reexamination of the terrestrial carbon sink and the role of rivers, noting:
“This fundamentally changes our inference of where anthropogenic carbon resides within the main Earth system carbon reservoirs”.
But don’t expect the IPCC, Net Zero campaigners, or ESG investors to acknowledge this. Their policy steamrollers are already in motion, powered by inertia and political leverage rather than scientific humility.
This study is a torpedo below the waterline of climate orthodoxy. It makes it painfully clear that we don’t understand the Earth’s carbon system nearly well enough to justify radical economic and societal upheaval. The confidence of climate alarmists—built on the brittle scaffolding of incomplete data and overconfident models—has once again been exposed for what it is: performative certainty.
To call climate science “settled” in the wake of this paper is not just intellectually lazy—it’s laughable. It’s the scientific equivalent of declaring victory halfway through a chess match while ignoring that your queen is missing and half your pawns are spies. The river CO2 study is not a minor correction. It’s a flashing red light that we’re still flying blind.
So the next time someone tells you the science is settled, ask them if they’ve heard of F¹⁴C. Then sit back and enjoy the silence.
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