As someone who consumes news the way others devour sports, this past week delivered a trio of words I’d be happy to never hear again: Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs. That ongoing saga has nothing to do with the toy industry, but it does lead me to a fourth word I think we’d all like to see retired from the national conversation: Tariffs.
As the U.S. toy industry takes a much-needed breather for the Fourth of July, the shadow of President Donald J. Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs continues to loom. The 90-day pause on those taxes ends next week — and the outlook isn’t getting brighter.
In the last 36 hours, President Trump took to Truth Social to announce a new trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam — a key region as companies shift sourcing outside of China. According to Trump, U.S. imports from Vietnam will now be slapped with a 20% tariff, while Vietnamese imports of American goods will come in with “zero tariff.” Additionally, goods transshipped from China through Vietnam to avoid tariffs will now face a 40% tariff — a direct strike against a workaround many companies have used in recent months.
But here’s the rub: reality and rhetoric are miles apart.
“Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% tariff on any and all goods sent into our territory,” Trump claimed. That line, echoed repeatedly by his team — including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick — is simply not true.
Let me be clear, again: other countries are not paying these tariffs. U.S. importers pay them. And no matter how clever the mitigation strategies, the end result is the same: higher prices for American consumers.
You may not agree with that statement. You might not want to hear it. But that doesn’t make it any less true. Repeating misinformation doesn’t change facts; it only blurs the line between perception and reality.
Tariffs are taxes. We pay them. Not Vietnam. Not China. Not anyone else.
As we celebrate Independence Day, let’s not forget what “Liberation Day” has cost us: jobs, savings, and livelihoods, especially in the toy industry.
Mixed Messaging in the Job Market
In the private sector, ADP reports a loss of 33,000 jobs last month, a massive swing from the expected 95,000 gain. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor reported a gain of 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in the same period. Conflicting data? Sure. But both can be true, depending on who’s counting and how.
It’s a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul — shifting numbers from one column to another.
For the toy industry — where 96% of companies are small businesses — this year has quietly become one of the most brutal in recent memory. Personally, I’ve never known so many people looking for work at the same time. A cursory scroll through the LinkedIn feed is a blur of green “Open to Work” graphics, and it’s painful to see.
Thousands of jobs have disappeared across companies of all sizes. And it’s not just us. Adjacent industries are bleeding too. Microsoft just slashed 9,000 jobs, canceling multiple projects across Xbox and other platforms.
This Independence Day, the only thing bursting in air might be profit margins. The fight for economic freedom is real, and the fuse is burning fast.
At The Toy Book, we know that challenges come and go, but the pulse of play keeps beating. This Fourth of July, let’s celebrate not just our independence, but the endurance of the industry we love.
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