Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2025

Winter Dormant Wheat Will Benefit From Mean Temperature Increase of 2°C When Well-Watered and Fertilized in the Main Producing Regions of China, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70324

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Framework for Quantifying the Robustness and Uncertainty of Drought Projections, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70019

Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting, Thompson et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02386-y

Divergent oxygen trends in ice-covered lakes driven by ice-cover decline and ecological memory, Jansen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2426140122

Entire-Basin Heat Wave in the Yangtze River Is Becoming the New Normal, Li et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0119.1

Glacial melt due to global warming is triggering earthquakes, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.aea2480

Spatiotemporal Trends in Winter Wind Chill Temperatures across Canada and the United States, Laird et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0106.1

Timing of the Recent Migration and Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds, Tetzner et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113672

Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns, Boboc et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100794

Intensifying tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea replenish depleting aquifers, Saleh et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02493-w

Prediction of Future Drought Characteristics Over the Southwest Turkey Using CMIP6 Models, ?ener & Davraz, Pure and Applied Geophysics Open Access 10.1007/s00024-025-03757-4

Climate change economics

Economic impacts of sea level rise on China’s coastal provinces under different adaptation strategies, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005

Quantifying indirect economic losses from extreme events to inform global and local adaptation strategies, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.001

The biophysical economic structure of four developed countries: Lessons for decarbonization, Sinha & Kennedy, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70062

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A mining reality check on net zero, , Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61090-9

Americans and policymakers underestimate endorsement for the most popular climate solution narrative, combining personal and political action, Sparkman et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02496-7

Aviation sector decarbonisation as a case of deep uncertainty: The need for an integrative, exploratory, and interdisciplinary approach, Belcher et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104158

Climate justice: A view from the Latin American context, Guevara-Cue, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104156

Energy transitions in the Pacific, one island at a time: The case of Efate island, Vanuatu, Pueyo & Haas , Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114751

Firms’ response to climate regulations: Empirical investigations based on the European Emissions Trading System, Kalantzis et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114612

Green recovery or fossil lock-in? Assessing sustainability and energy transition pathways in major economies, Ge & Zhu Duncanson Liu Hedges Cordero Press Boyer Kuramochi Liu Hee Ng Miakota Li Zong Leotaud Patrício Mulligan Zanoletti Peñasco Mulligan Welsh Guo Linnér Rasoulinezhad Brunori Machado Raukas Skidmore MP Zhang Ryzhenko Tyagi , Resources Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103058

Is the single-buyer model a barrier to clean energy deployment? Empirical evidence on decarbonization and renewable energy supply in emerging and developing countries, Sirin et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114753

Making fossil fuel futures: The discursive formation of Canada’s net-zero imaginary, Jara, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104182

Shaping niche innovations in energy transitions: The role of pitching to regulators, Eitan & Fischhendler, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104170

Sustainability-driven energy management strategies for reducing carbon footprints in higher education, Hebala et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101783

The challenge of connecting climate benefits with corporate climate targets and global net zero ambition, Helppi et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2522090

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas, Eslami et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02368-0

An emergent optimal resource allocation for climate resilience of transport infrastructure networks, Li et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2025.0084

Applying global NASA data to local planning for extreme heat in Prince George’s County, Maryland, Schollaert Uz et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1561526

Avoid urban development policy that fuels climate risk, Agarwal et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02365-3

Climate justice in urban public space adaptation: Developing and testing a collective assessment tool in Hunters Point, New York City, Ruiz de Gopegui et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102505

Editorial: Extreme hydro-meteorological events in a changing climate: monitoring, risk assessment, and early warning, Jiang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1650815

Effective climate finance management? An analysis of institutional structures for climate change adaptation in Tanzania, Sumari et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2525468

Effectively lowering climate risk with innovation in adaptation technology, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Heatwave adaptation conditioned by everyday life: Analysing interacting changes to daily activities during Pacific Northwest summers, Yücel & Schwanen, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103026

Powering fairness in climate adaptation capabilities: Evaluating the influence of air conditioning rebates in a hot climate, Wade et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104204

Quantifying indirect economic losses from extreme events to inform global and local adaptation strategies, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.001

Understanding slow progress on urban climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of behavioural dynamics in Dutch policymaking, Bellmann et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102666

Climate change impacts on human health

Medicine in a Warming World: The Physician’s Role in Climate Action, Tarver & Macpherson, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70010

Rising Global Elderly Health Inequalities in the Face of Temperature Extremes, Qi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006000

[Review] The effect of climate mitigation and adaptation policies on health and health inequalities: a systematic review, Hjelmskog et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.06.001

Other

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104950

Community attitudes towards advancing climate justice with climate aid, Stanley et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102679

Data from 88 countries reveal international predictors of climate activism, Pearson et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102680

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Challenges of institutional adaptation, , Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02388-w

Editorial: Extreme hydro-meteorological events in a changing climate: monitoring, risk assessment, and early warning, Jiang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1650815

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Global Drought Hotspots Report Catalogs Severe Suffering, Economic Damage, The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, The International Drought Resilience Alliance and the US. National Drought Mitigation Center

The authors synthesize information from hundreds of government, scientific and media sources to highlight impacts within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, Türkiye), Latin America (Panama, Amazon Basin), Southeast Asia, and beyond.

Environment at a Glance Indicators, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

The authors provide a real-time interactive on-line access to the latest comparable OECD-country data on the environment from the OECD Core Set of Environmental Indicators – a tool to evaluate environmental performance in countries and to track the course towards sustainable development. The web version allows users to play with the data and graphics, download and share them, and consult and download thematic web-books. These indicators provide key messages on major environmental trends in areas such as climate change, biodiversity, water resources, air quality, circular economy and ocean resources.

Vermont Climate Action Plan 2025, The Vermont Climate Council

In the chapters, the Council presents a significant and broad set of recommendations intended to guide climate action over the next four years. At the heart of our efforts is a commitment not only to fulfill the obligations of the Global Warming Solutions Act, but also to ensure Vermont remains a vibrant, healthy place for current and future generations. Recognizing the breadth of the work that includes more than 250 recommended actions, in this update to the Plan the Council has highlighted 52 priority actions as well as a short list of 10 highest priority actions. Creating a short list of highest priority actions was done in direct response to public input. These highest priority actions intentionally address investments needed to both reduce climate pollution and help Vermont communities become more resilient.

Bridging climate and credit risk: Current approaches and emerging trends for climate-related credit risk assessment methodologies—insights from a global survey, Arshad et al., United National Environemnt Program-Financial Initiative

The authors offer a detailed analysis of how banks currently assess and manage climate-related credit risks, and actionable insights for risk professionals and senior management to identify strengths and gaps in their current practices. They also offer supervisory authorities a comprehensive view of how climate risks are being incorporated into credit risk management worldwide. They highlight standard methods used across the banking sector to help establish a benchmark for credit risk modelling practices. The goal is to support financial institutions in refining their approaches to climate risk management and aligning them with emerging best practices.

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2025 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science

The authors focus on key trends and evolutions in global climate change litigation from the calendar year 2024, while also highlighting important new developments through to May 2025. They provide a numerical analysis of how many cases have been filed, where and by whom, and a qualitative assessment of trends and themes in the types of cases filed. The primary sources of data are the two Climate Change Litigation databases maintained by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

Stinson Beach Adaptation & Resilience Collaboration. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Study, Environmental Science Associates, Marin County Community Development Agency

This document serves as a sea level rise adaptation resource and guide for the Stinson Beach community. It does not provide a prescriptive adaptation plan, but rather a framework for identifying, evaluating, and implementing potential sea level rise adaptation projects. Critical next steps include community organization and leadership to fund, plan, design, and implement near term adaptation measures. This study connects adaptation needs at Stinson Beach to relevant ongoing projects being undertaken by other agencies, identifies priority projects and implementation funding sources, and establishes a monitoring approach to track and respond to sea level rise.

Google’s Eco-failures. An Environmental Investigation into Alphabet Inc. 2025, Kairos Fellowship

Google’s reported total greenhouse gas emissions increased 1,515% from 2010 to 2024 according to the company’s own published data. While Google reports a decrease in its data center emissions, it is doing so by only reporting “market based emissions,” which use renewable energy purchased elsewhere to obscure real emissions. Google’s only emissions that have shown an absolute decrease since 2019 are its scope 1 emissions, which merely account for 0.31% of Google’s reported total emissions. Google’s aggressive investment in Generative AI and its infrastructure is a major factor behind its climate failings. Google’s Scope 2 emissions, which measure the emissions from energy that Google purchases to power its data centers, have increased by 820% since 2010.

Unlivable. How Cities in Europe and Central Asia Can Survive ? and Thrive ? in a Hotter Future, Mukim et al., The World Bank

Extreme heat is becoming one of the most lethal and underestimated threats to cities in Europe and Central Asia, exacerbating health risks, undermining productivity, and pushing infrastructure to its limits. This report presents new analysis showing that without urgent adaptation, heat-related deaths could double or triple, and economic losses could reach 2.5% of GDP by mid-century. The report identifies cities as both the frontline victims and potential leaders in building resilience, offering a roadmap of practical, high-impact actions. With targeted investments, cities can cool their environments, protect vulnerable populations, and safeguard economic performance in an increasingly hotter world.

Guía práctica de comunicación. Salud y calor. Verano 2025 (Practical Communication Guide. Health and Heat. Summer 2025), Franco et al, El Observatorio de Salud y Cambio Climático del Gobierno de España (The Spanish Government’s Health and Climate Change Observatory)

The authors seek to improve public communication about the effects of extreme heat on health and promote self-protection behaviors in the face of climate change.

Sustainable Signals, Institute for Sustainable Investing, Morgan Stanley

Eighty-eight percent of companies globally view sustainability as a long-term value creation opportunity, up three percentage points from 2024. While high investment needs remain a challenge, two-thirds of companies say their sustainability strategies are meeting or exceeding expectations. More than 80% of companies say they can measure returns on investment for sustainability-related projects. More than half of companies have experienced physical climate-related impacts in the past year and, in response, 80% say they are prepared to increase resilience measures.

Wildfires Emerging Risk Trend Talk 4, Allianz Commercial

The authors highlight wildfire hazard trends and stress the need for companies to be aware of how their assets and operations could either initiate or be affected by a wildfire. The increasing severity and frequency of wildfires, coupled with the growing number of people affected, has driven a significant rise in related losses – becoming six times more expensive over a decade. Regulatory challenges and litigation related to wildfire liabilities are also on the rise, necessitating robust risk management strategies and well documented wildfire management plans. Technological innovations are enhancing detection and suppression capabilities.

Latest science on the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, Climate Analytics

The authors provide a comprehensive overview of what the science is saying now about 1.5°C – what it means, what is at stake, and what actions are needed to limit the risks of overshoot and safeguard a livable future.

National Climate Change Risk Assessment, Environmental Protection Agency, Government of Ireland

Ireland’s first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) provides a comprehensive national overview of how Ireland may be impacted by climate changes. The NCCRA identifies, ranks, and prioritizes national climate change risks; identifies areas where action needs to be prioritized to make Ireland more resilient to the impacts of climate change; supports the prioritization of adaptation-related investments in infrastructure and improve the robustness of policy development in climate-sensitive sectors; provides a consistent evidence base on which to inform the development of the National Adaptation Framework and other adaptation responses at a national level, such as the Central Bank of Ireland’s Climate Risk and Sustainable Finance Forum; and provides a national reference for conducting and updating sectoral, local, and other stakeholder adaptation plans in Ireland.

Solar BRICS: Emerging economies now lead the world’s clean energy race, Fulghum et al., Ember

BRICS countries now generate more than half of the world’s solar power. In 2024, the 10 BRICS members — Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Russia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates — collectively accounted for 51% of the world’s electricity generation from solar, a dramatic rise from just 15% a decade ago. China was the dominant driver of this increase, making up 39% of global solar generation in 2024, up from 12% in 2014. India and Brazil were also major contributors, with India accounting for 6.3% (up from 2.5% in 2014), and Brazil for 3.5% (0.01% in 2014). South Africa and the United Arab Emirates each made up 0.9%, with the remaining BRICS countries together contributing 0.5% of the global total.

Carbon market laws in the global South set to increase corporate control over community forests, Milieudefensi/Friends of the Earth Netherlands

Companies that were previously involved in deforestation and human rights violations are now at risk of benefiting from new carbon trading laws in countries in the Global South. This is evident from a new report by . According to the authors, these new rules will allow large logging and mining companies to access the profitable carbon market. As a result, these laws endanger the rights of local communities. They are at risk of losing control over their forests, which they have often lived and cared for for generations. The legislative changes are often supported by international organizations such as the World Bank, the UN Development Program and The Nature Conservancy.

Fossil Fueol Advertising and Sponsorship, Victoria Harvey, MP Watch

The author sets out how and why the UK should ban fossil fuel advertising and sponsorship.

Opportunities for Industrial Modernization in Washington. Technical Pathways, Investments, Policy, and Decarbonizing Options for Emissions- Intensive, Trade-Exposed Industries, Azarova et al., RMI

Washington’s Cap-and-Invest program is a popular and powerful tool for meeting the state’s greenhouse gas targets and funding investments that support Washington’s businesses and residents. But how the program considers industrial emissions beyond 2034 will have to be revisited by Washington’s legislative and regulatory bodies in order for the program to function efficiently and equitably in the long term. The authors performed a technical pathways analysis for each of Washington’s “Emission-Intensive, Trade-Exposed” (EITE) industrial sectors, which produce paper, food, beverages, steel, aluminum, glass, cement, building materials, airplanes, semiconductors, fertilizer, and transportation fuels. They found that existing and near-term technologies could reduce emissions from EITEs 39% by the end of 2034, largely through implementing energy and material efficiency measures and electrifying applications.

Evaluation of Risks to Federal Facility Superfund Site Remedies from Sea-Level Rise or Increased Storm Surge, Office of Inspector General, Environmental Protection Agency

The authors determined that 49 of the 157 federal facility Superfund sites on the National Priorities List are potentially at risk from sea-level rise or increased storm surge. Sea-level rise and increased storm surge at federal facility Superfund sites are of concern to the EPA because of the federal government’s role in overseeing cleanup at these sites and also because many of these sites are located near population centers and important ecological areas. Federal facility Superfund sites may be at risk if the cleanup remedies that have been implemented at those sites to keep people and the environment safe are susceptible to sea-level rise or increased storm surge.

Unlocking the Future of Climate-Smart Agriculture: Integrating Biochar Carbon Removal and Enhanced Rock Weathering into Agricultural Value Chains, Mills et al., Stripe Climate and Carbon Gap

The authors provide agribusinesses with a scalable, science-backed pathway to Scope 3 decarbonization, supply chain resilience, and farmer productivity, when tailored to local conditions and deployed with robust safeguards.

Heavy rain in July 2025 Texas floods locally intensified by human-driven climate change, Faranda et al., Zenodo

Meteorological conditions similar to that causing floods in Texas are up to 2 mm/day (up to 7%) wetter in the present than they have been in the past. This event was associated with very exceptional meteorological conditions. Natural variability alone cannot explain the increase in precipitation associated with Texas floods.

Spying on Climate: Inside the Intelligence Community’s Environmental Legacy, National Security Archive

For decades, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) has viewed climate change as a serious national security threat that will create “new and compounded stresses on people and societies around the world,” according to one of the records featured in a repository of U.S. intelligence reports published online today by the National Security Archive. From early evaluations of Russia’s post-Soviet environmental challenges in the 1990s to present-day threat assessments on human and environmental security, the 45-document collection follows the evolution of the IC’s environmental monitoring and its increasingly dire warnings about the security threats posed by climate change.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (69% versus 15%). Compared with Fall 2024, Americans’ level of worry is significantly higher for wildfires (+12 percentage points), rising sea levels (+13 points), and hurricanes (+8 points). Additionally, half or more Americans are at least “a little worried” their local area might be harmed by air pollution (78%), water pollution (77%), diseases carried by mosquitoes and ticks (76%), extreme heat (73%), droughts (73%), agricultural pests and diseases (71%), electricity power outages (71%), wildfires (67%), water shortages (67%), flooding (61%), tornados (60%), rising sea levels (55%), hurricanes (50%), and reduced snowpack (49%). Nearly two-thirds of Americans think that global warming is affecting the weather in the U.S. (64%), and seven in ten or more think it is affecting extreme heat (75%), wildfires (72%), droughts (72%), and flooding (71%). Only 18% of Americans say they hear about global warming in the media “at least once a week,” which is the lowest percentage since the question was added to the survey in 2015.

China’s solar and onshore wind capacity reaches new heights, while offshore wind shows promise, Mengqi Zhang, Global Energy Monitor

China is advancing a nearly 1.3 terawatt (TW) pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind capacity, leading the global effort in renewable energy buildout. This is in addition to China’s already operating 1.4 TW of solar and wind capacity, nearly 26% of which (357 gigawatts (GW)) came online in 2024. Though only a small portion of China’s overall renewable capacity, China’s offshore wind fleet contributes over 50% of the overall offshore wind capacity in construction worldwide. However, China is not immune to the challenges of this new market, as development of offshore wind in China has slowed in recent years. In order for this technology to advance, China has an opportunity to move from its provincial development approach to one that provides stable and market-specific national policies.

Climate change threatens the world’s most critical technology, Renate de Lange and Glenn Burm, PwC

Today’s global supply chains rely on semiconductors. They are embedded in everything from computers and phones to cars and washing machines. It is hard to think of a company that does not rely on semiconductors in some way. Semiconductors are also needed to seize the potential of AI, for quantum computing, and to transition to renewable energy. But, the copper needed to make semiconductors is at risk from drought caused by climate change. Without adapting to climate change, within 10 years a third of all semiconductor production will be reliant on copper at risk from climate disruption. By 2050, it could be nearly double that. That is a lot – and it shows why action is needed now.

Unlocking Next-Generation Geothermal Heat for Industry, Mariano et al., The 2035 Initiative, University of California, Santa Barbara

Industrial facilities account for 23% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, most of which come from burning fossil fuels to generate heat. Yet, there is an abundant, zero-emissions source of heat right beneath our feet: geothermal energy. This report is a primer on how next-generation geothermal technologies can provide clean, reliable heat for the industrial sector. The authors discuss recent advances in geothermal technologies, explore industrial processes that are good candidates for geothermal and why, provide case studies of existing geothermal industrial heat sites, and propose strategies to scale geothermal heat for industry.

About New Research

Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.