Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2025
Posted on 21 August 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries, Hopwood et al., AGU Advances
A bold suggestion to reduce sea level rise is to install underwater barriers to reduce the inflow of oceanic heat around Antarctica and Greenland. Inflow of warm, saline water masses drives ice melt and the destabilization of tidewater glaciers. Whilst the basic theory that barriers would stem oceanic heat flow is uncontroversial, the extent to which barriers might reduce future ice mass loss is less certain. There are numerous concerns about the viability and side-effects of this proposed intervention. We use existing field observations and representative fjord-scale models for the Greenland’s largest glacier, Sermeq Kujalleq in the Ilulissat Icefjord, to suggest that there is already sufficient evidence to conclude that artificial barrier installation would have negative regional implications for marine productivity. The effects on fisheries are a concern as negative implications for Greenland’s regional fisheries are unlikely to be socially acceptable. Increasing “geoengineeringization” of the Earth Sciences is likely to continue in coming decades as society grapples with the challenges of slowing climate change and mitigating its consequences. To produce beneficial results, the technical and social viabilities of geoengineering concepts need to be considered in parallel, with the latter determined in a complex social, economic and cultural nexus.
This article examines the technocentric bias that characterizes climate mitigation literature, focusing on the reports of the IPCC’s Working Group III. This bias stems from structural features of the scientific field that prioritizes innovation, leading to the overrepresentation of technological solutions in climate research. Funding mechanisms further reinforce this tendency by incentivizing collaboration with industrial R&D, creating a self-reinforcing loop in which scientific authority and industrial interests converge. The IPCC’s institutional positioning—as a policy-relevant yet politically cautious body—amplifies this dynamic by favoring allegedly “cost-effective” technological pathways that lack practical feasibility.
Despite rising climate urgency, decision-makers continue to support emission reduction options that appear promising on the face of it but hinder progress in practice. Whether through more efficient gasoline engines or waste heat recovery from fossil fuel combustion, many proposed solutions encourage partial emissions reductions without adequate consideration of whether they can build toward net zero systems of the future. As a result, it is essential that policy decisions are interrogated in terms of their alignment with net zero pathways (or lack thereof) and that decision-makers are both informed about and held to account for the compatibility of near-term choices with long-run system change. This study conceptualizes particularly problematic directions as ‘dead-end pathways’ and outlines a framework for identifying and avoiding them. The framework assesses pathways in relation to three dimensions: depth (how close they can come to virtually eliminating emissions in a stipulated system context), breadth (how widely they can be applied across the specified system), and timeliness (how rapidly they can be deployed). The study then applies this framework to three brief case studies drawn from road transportation, each of which fail on one of these dimensions.
General circulation models (GCMs) are not only powerful tools to understand Earth’s climate system and to forecast the weather. They are also large software programs written by humans. As such, they contain coding mistakes, so-called bugs. Researchers communicate results generated with GCMs and document new model versions, but seldom explicitly communicate the bugs they find in their models, let alone the practices surrounding them. This study portrays practices around bugs that were found during recent ICON development, and the workflow from getting a suspicion to fixing and communicating the bug. Eleven qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with domain scientists and scientific programmers involved in ICON development. The interviews detail the workflow for dealing with bugs, highlighting that it is only partly standardized. For example, scientific testing is complicated by the fact that there is no absolute truth in terms of results that the model could be tested against. Thus testing resists standardization, so that dealing with bugs remains a laborious process. Being confronted and dealing with bugs, modelers aim for a model that is “good enough” rather than perfect. This stance is pragmatic and relaxes exuberant expectations for GCMs, especially considering their bugs. However, the goal of “good enough” is troubling with regard to GCMs’ use as universal tools, with high societal stakes. Who decides that the model is “good enough,” and what for?
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Americans Care Deeply About Climate Change but Don’t View It in a Political Context, Beacon Research, Environmental Voter Project
The authors highlight key findings from a national survey of 3,250 U.S. adults conducted via online panel July 6 – 14, 2025. Using a split-sample approach where groups of approximately 650 respondents were each asked about a single societal issue, the survey attempts to gauge how Americans view particular issues in a “natural setting” before being primed to consider the topics within a political, social, or personal context. The data relating to climate change are particularly revealing in that they show Americans could be more concerned about climate change than is typically measured in political polls, and that climate’s lower political salience might be due to Americans not viewing climate change as a political issue, but rather as a series of personal and corporate failings that require individual-level solutions.
The Cost of Federal Mandates to Retain Fossil-Burning Power Plants, Michael Goggin, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club
Over the last several months, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has attempted to override decisions by power plant owners and state utility regulators to retire uneconomic fossil-fired power plants. The author quantifies the cost imposed on electricity consumers if DOE continues to mandate that these plants and other fossil-fired power plants slated for retirement remain open. Ratepayer costs could exceed $3 billion per year if DOE mandates that the large fossil power plants scheduled to retire between now and the end of 2028 remain open. If additional fossil power plants announce or move up their retirement dates in an attempt to obtain the ratepayer subsidies available to plants subject to DOE mandates, the cost could reach nearly $6 billion per year.
142 articles in 63 journals by 921 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Attributing future changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration: The combined impacts of climate change, rising CO2, and land use change, Hou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747
Eddies Redistribute Ocean Warming Hotspots in the East Australian Current Southern Extension, Zhou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116772
Persistent 2024 Warm-Season Marine Heatwave in the Kuroshio Extension Region Under Global Warming, Qiao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117274
Role of Sea Ice and Ocean in the Observed Increase in Arctic Liquid Freshwater Content, Verma et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0368.1
The Tug-of-War on the Storm Tracks between Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming Is Mainly an Atlantic Phenomenon, Hay et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0469.1
Tidal Effects on Antarctic Bottom Water Formation in a Changing Climate, Han et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022443
Winter Climate Change Reshapes Soil Climate and Biogeochemistry in a Novel Snowmelt Experiment, Ridgeway et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70405
Observations of climate change, effects
Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia, Flores et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001586
Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Concurrent Hot and Dry Days over China during 1961–2022, Wen & Shi, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0006.1
Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, Abram et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5
Excess water availability in northern mid-high latitudes contiguously migrated from ocean under climate change, Guan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adv0282
Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations, Klavans et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09368-2
Slowdown of Dune Migration in East Asia’s Inland Deserts: A 35-Year Response to Wind Stilling, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113506
Weakened circulation in the deep South China Sea triggered by prolonged warming, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02582-w
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
AGCPP: All-day Global Cloud Physical Properties dataset with 0.07° resolution retrieved from geostationary satellite imagers covering the period from 2000 to 2022, Zhao et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-425
Systematic anomalies in the recent global atmospheric CO2 concentration, Francey & Frederiksen, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000682
The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution, Feser & Shepherd, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Future extreme precipitation may shift to colder seasons in northern mid- and high latitudes, Zhu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02651-0
Time of Emergence of Record-Shattering Compound Heatwave-Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Socio-Economic Exposures, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116884
Windstorm Extremes in a Warmer World: Raising the Bar for Destruction, Zeitzen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115936
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Earth System Forcing for CMIP7 and Beyond, Durack et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0119.1
How Climate Model Developers Deal With Bugs, Proske & Melsen, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006318
Statistical and Dynamical Aspects of Extremely Hot Summers in Western Europe Sampled with a Rare Event Algorithm, Noyelle et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0635.1
The ARP-GEM1 Global Atmosphere Model: Description, Speedup Analysis, and Multiscale Evaluation up to 6 km, Geoffroy & Saint-Martin, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0547.1
Cryosphere & climate change
New radar altimetry datasets of Greenland and Antarctic surface elevation, 1991–2012, Suryawanshi et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3446
The Pacific Arctic Region Has Become a Sink for Multiyear Sea Ice Coverage, Liang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl117093
Sea level & climate change
US-CoastEX: Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for the United States, Morim et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-05730-1
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Anomalous warm winters on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the 8.2?ka cold event: Implications for recent warming amplification, Yu & Zhang, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105027
Coastal evolution, environmental change and carbon storage in the Thung Prong Thong Mangrove, eastern Gulf of Thailand, Chawchai et al., Boreas Open Access 10.1111/bor.70033
Lake anoxia, primary production, and algal community shifts in response to rapid climate changes during the Late Glacial, Schouten et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-3821-2025
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Tubastraea coccinea (Lesson, 1830), a coral species with high invasive potential, can benefit from the synergistic effects of ocean warming and acidification, Vilanova Gallardo et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107430
A climate vulnerability assessment for U.S. highly migratory fishes in the Atlantic Ocean, Loughran et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000530
Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models, Melnikova et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02606-5
Climate at play: Norway spruce responses to weather and climate conditions across latitudinal and elevational gradients of Eastern Europe, Popa et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110795
Climate change alters the radial growth responses of P. schrenkiana and J. jarkendensis to climate extremes in the Eastern Pamirs, Yang et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126362
Climate Change Risk to Giant Panda Populations: Insights From Changes in Both Habitat Area and Bioclimatic Velocity, Ning et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70442
Climate Change, Weather, and Geography Shape Seed Mass Variation and Decline Across Western North America, Lenzo et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70416
Coral thermotolerance retained following year-long exposure to a novel environment, Roper et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu3858
Current Marine Protected Areas Conserve Fish Spawning Aggregations Under Climate Change due to Habitat Refugia, Bartlett et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70433
Different responses of cyanobacterial communities to climate change and anthropogenic activities revealed by the 500-year sedimentary record of Lake Daihai, Wang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100490
Offshore solar farms as habitats for Mytilus edulis: A preliminary modelling study on mussel growth, distribution, chlorophyll-a uptake and bio-deposition in the North Sea, Nalmpanti et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107372
Epigenetic Plasticity Is Likely to Exacerbate Climate Change Vulnerability, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70424
Extinction Risk Assessment and Conservation of the Pachypodium Under Climate Change, Chen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71926
Ground warming boosts cooperative transport in a temperate ant species, Devegili et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2025.1344
Hotter winter-spring droughts accelerated the growth decline of marginal pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) populations in dry sites from Romania, Nechita & Camarero, Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126369
Keys to the global treeline formation: Thermal limit for its position and moisture for the taxon-specific variation, Xie et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2504685122
Long-term climate warming weakens positive plant biomass responses globally, Dang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2420379122
Marine heatwaves and eutrophication jeopardize the seagrass Halodule wrightii and associated infauna, Peixoto Dias et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107441
Mismatch in reindeer resilience to past and future warming signals ongoing declines, Canteri et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu0175
Modeling the impact of climate change on corvus species distribution in Somaliland: Bayesian spatial point process approach for conservation, Muse & Abd Elwahab, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1573807
Mountain Hares Are Adapted to Historical Climates—Coat Colour Mismatch is Greatest in Areas With the Largest Reduction in Snow Cover Duration Over the Last 60 Years, Stokes et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70365
On the correlated evolution of ecological lifestyle and thermal tolerance, Morris & Rollinson, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2025.1290
Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios, Sun et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005622
Prediction of the potential distribution of Piptanthus nepalensis in China under future climate scenarios, Yanhui et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1601085
Quantifying coral reef–ocean interactions is critical for predicting reef futures under climate change, Richardson et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-025-02839-9
Relative Effects of Eutrophication and Warming on Freshwater Ecosystems Across Ecological Levels, Marin et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70410
Surviving a megadrought: shifts in climate sensitivity of an austral conifer in Chile due to persistent water shortage, González de Andrés et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110791
Temporal trends in allometry of shell calcification in northeastern Pacific venerid bivalves: implications for predicting responses to climate change, Bullard & Roy, Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2025.0181
The impact of temperature on the reproductive development, body condition and mortality of autumn migrating monarch butterflies in the laboratory, Rich et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.250343
Trade-Offs and Synergies Between Climate Change Mitigation, Biodiversity Preservation, and Agro-Economic Development Across Future Land-Use Scenarios in Brazil, Gérard et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70418
Trends in the “flowering” periods of Juniperus species (Cupressaceae) in the province of Malaga (western Mediterranean) during the last six decades (1971-2023), Recio & Díaz-García, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110712
Vegetation Productivity Responses to Compound and Individual Climatic Stressors in Drylands, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008695
Warming, Snow Exclusion, and Soil Type Alter the Timing of Plant and Soil Activity and Associated Nutrient Losses, Juice et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70447
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Climate and vegetation jointly determine the interannual variation of net ecosystem CO2 fluxes over 12 years in a restored coastal wetland, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110760
Direct analysis of dissolved CO2 in coastal waters: development and validation of a simple method, Rangel-García et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107414
Domestic wastewater is an overlooked source and quantity in global river dissolved carbon, Cao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62920-6
Estimating global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions using satellite observations and machine learning methods, Mustafa & Xu, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121423
Excessive Wetness Suppresses Carbon Sink of Amazon Forest Under Seasonal Water Surplus, Ren et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70422
Feral Ungulate Impacts on Carbon Cycling in a Coastal Floodplain Wetland in Tropical Northern Australia, Crameri et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009056
First global XCO2 observations fromspaceborne lidar: methodology and initial result, Han et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114954
Fungal Necromass Carbon Dominates Global Soil Organic Carbon Storage, Fu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70413
Hysteretic temperature sensitivity in wetland CH4 emission modeling, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110704
Increased microbial carbon use efficiency upon abrupt permafrost thaw, Qin et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2419206122
Long-Term Anthropogenic Disturbances Exacerbate Soil Organic Carbon Loss in Hyperarid Desert Ecosystems, Gao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70423
Long-Term Changes of Surface Total Alkalinity and Its Driving Mechanisms in the North Indian Ocean, Joshi et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008344
Methane production from lignin in anoxic peatland, Liu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01758-5
Plant nutrient acquisition under elevated CO2 and implications for the land carbon sink, Cambron et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02386-y
Satellite-derived ocean color data for monitoring pCO2 dynamics in the North Indian Ocean, Shaik et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101534
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Tracking the future of global N2O gas emissions with data-driven forecasts, Önder, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106577
Two Decades of Increase in Southern Ocean Net Community Production Revealed by BGC-Argo Floats, Liniger et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008371
Waning Greenhouse Gas Emissions From U.S. Federal Lease Coal Production by the Mid-21st Century, Merrill et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005735
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
CO2 sequestration in geological formations: Insights into mineral reactions and reservoir dynamics, Nazari et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105200
Tracing sources of funds used to lobby the US government about carbon capture, use, and storage, Gulden & Harvey, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104171
Decarbonization
Dead-end pathways: Conceptualizing, assessing, avoiding, Rosenbloom et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000693
Feasibility of shallow geothermal energy for industrial heating using high-temperature heat pumps in Sichuan Province, China, Zheng et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101785
Offshore solar farms as habitats for Mytilus edulis: A preliminary modelling study on mussel growth, distribution, chlorophyll-a uptake and bio-deposition in the North Sea, Nalmpanti et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107372
Geoengineering climate
Controlled electrochemical nutrient delivery to enhance marine primary productivity, Marsh et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-025-00137-2
Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries, Hopwood et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001732
Climate change communications & cognition
Consumers misestimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with sustainable behaviors, firms, and industries, Ludwig et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102713
No Cool Dudes in Austria: Determinants of Austrian Climate Change Skepticism, Bolte et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102733
Responsibility for future generations and climate change mitigation: A cross-national study of predictors of pro-environmentalism in Europe, Law et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102729
Spillover from general and specific pro-environmental behavior to climate-friendly choices and policy Acceptance: The mediating role of psychological engagement, Thøgersen & Zhang, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102718
Unpacking the Risk of Misinformation: A Communication-Based Critique, Balog?Way & McComas, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70093
Unwinding the spiral of silence in rural America: looking backward with stories to plan forward, Keller et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1398452
Variations in climate change belief systems across 110 geographic areas, Lee et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02410-1
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi-Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis, Bacon et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005429
Beekeepers’ intentions to adopt resilience strategies for climate change: a comparative and integrated approach using the theory of planned behavior and protection motivation theory, Ouertani et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1604488
Carbon payment strategies in coffee agroforests shape climate and biodiversity outcomes, Pappo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02574-w
Increased Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions From the Combined Use of Cover Crops and No-Tillage in Producer-Managed Fields, Peng et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006009
Influence of agrivoltaic system-induced microclimate modifications on wheat growth and yield, Prakash et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110775
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Optimizing sustainable and multifunctional management of Alpine Forests under climate change, Bont et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-12001-x
Sustained benefits of long-term biochar application for food security and climate change mitigation, Yang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2509237122
Trade-Offs and Synergies Between Climate Change Mitigation, Biodiversity Preservation, and Agro-Economic Development Across Future Land-Use Scenarios in Brazil, Gérard et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70418
Understanding coffee farmers’ poverty, food insecurity and adaptive responses to climate stress. Evidence from western Honduras, Rodriguez-Camayo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100735
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Accelerating River Discharge in High Mountain Asia, Flores et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001586
Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950, Paprotny et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5430941/v1
Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future, Spicer et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006001
Excess water availability in northern mid-high latitudes contiguously migrated from ocean under climate change, Guan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adv0282
Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations, Klavans et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09368-2
Weakened circulation in the deep South China Sea triggered by prolonged warming, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02582-w
Extreme Precipitation Risks in South Asia: Future Climate Change Impacts on Population and Cropland, Talukder et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70057
India’s Drought Challenge: Insights From CMIP6 Models on Historical and Future Climate Scenarios, Bhatla et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70075
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing climate ambition through policy outputs: a comparative measure of 35 major emitters, Ye, npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-025-00278-7
Early transition to near-zero emissions electricity and carbon dioxide removal is essential to achieve net-zero emissions at a low cost in Australia, Nong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02615-4
Identifying convergences and divergences of social and technical considerations for the development of marine energy policy, Wade & D’Anna, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114745
In tech we trust: A history of technophilia in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate mitigation expertise, Fressoz, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104280
Is the updated Energy Efficiency Directive fit for purpose? A critical assessment based on replies from European stakeholders, Ringel, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104244
One step forward, two steps back: centring the state in the hybrid logics of US decarbonization, Green, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2540683
Policy in hard times: How individuals’ energy insecurity shape energy, climate, and social policy preferences, Beiser-McGrath, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114788
Researching climate policy in uncertain times, Dubash et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2543973
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A review of emergent vulnerabilities indices in the Alaska Arctic, Bushnell et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1619823
Climate change impacts on livelihoods in the Eastern Hindu Kush: integrating local perceptions and biophysical data, Khan et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-025-02414-9
Enhancing system resilience to climate change through artificial intelligence: a systematic literature review, Ayadi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1585331
Exploring the water availability and efficiency of inter-basin water transfer projects of urban water supply systems under climate change, Cuceloglu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102582
Facing climate change together? The role of the collective dimension in mediating cash transfer effects on climate adaptation, Grisolia et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2543022
How does the climate change and migration nexus result in maladaptation?, Khavarian-Garmsir et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2518298
Place Attachment and Climate-Related Hazards in Small Remote Communities in the Nordic Countries, Kongsager et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-025-02441-6
Social vulnerability in regional climate adaptation planning in Europe – Conceptions, operationalisations and shared challenges, Jessen et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104161
Vulnerability and climate risk assessment in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, based on ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures, Quishpe et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736
What Does a Climate-Resilient Rural Water Supply System Look Like? An Interdisciplinary Approach to Climate Resilience Mapping in Nepal, Nepal et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70014
Climate change impacts on human health
Aedes albopictus Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe, Radici et al., Open Access 10.1101/2025.02.14.638223
Application of the intergovernmental panel on climate change risk framework to estimate risk of weather-related diarrheal disease in Western Kenya, Kowalcyk et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000549
Climate change and Vibrio: Environmental determinants for predictive risk assessment, Brumfield et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2420423122
Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y
Projected increase in extreme heat exposure for vulnerable groups in late spring in China, LUO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001
Other
Comment on “Opinion: Can uncertainty in climate sensitivity be narrowed further?” by Sherwood and Forest (2024), Lewis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-8821-2025
Tapestries of Knowledge: Using Convergence Science to Weave Indigenous Science and Wisdom with Other Scientific Approaches to Climate Challenges, Lazrus et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0215.1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A post-2030 vision, , Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01623-8
Our current climate already merits serious research and policy attention, Obradovich et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2503892122
Protect Antarctica — or risk accelerating planetary meltdown, Kubiszewski et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/d41586-025-02618-3
Book reviews
Why amphibious, wet environments hold the key to climate adaptation, Ananya, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02617-4
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Statewide Climate Summary, July 2025 (Alaska), The Alaska Climate Research Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Moderately warmer than normal in the north and Interior. Below average precipitation in most of Alaska. Fire activity increased with lightning during the first half of the month but has since slowed down
Clean Heat, Clean Air. Benefits of Zero-Emission Technologies in the Industrial Heating Sector, ICF Incorporated, American Lung Association
If the nation’s manufacturing facilities powered their processes with clean technologies instead of fossil fuels, American communities could see over $1 trillion in public health benefits by 2050 and avoid 77,200 pollution-related deaths, 33.2 million asthma attacks and 13 million lost school days. These health benefits would come as a result of cleaner air while industry grows more efficient.
Climate Change in the Indian Mind, Spring 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
84% of people in India favor banning the construction of new coal power plants, closing existing ones, and replacing them with solar and wind energy. More than half of the people in India (53%) say they know at least “something” about global warming. This is the first time since the surveys began in 2011 that a majority of people have said so, although 27% say they have “never heard of” global warming. When given a short definition of global warming, 96% of people in India think global warming is happening, which is 18 percentage points higher than in our 2023 survey and 12 percentage points higher than in February 2025
The Cost of Federal Mandates to Retain Fossil-Burning Power Plants, Michael Goggin, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Sierra Club
Over the last several months, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has attempted to override decisions by power plant owners and state utility regulators to retire uneconomic fossil-fired power plants. The author quantifies the cost imposed on electricity consumers if DOE continues to mandate that these plants and other fossil-fired power plants slated for retirement remain open. Ratepayer costs could exceed $3 billion per year if DOE mandates that the large fossil power plants scheduled to retire between now and the end of 2028 remain open. If additional fossil power plants announce or move up their retirement dates in an attempt to obtain the ratepayer subsidies available to plants subject to DOE mandates, the cost could reach nearly $6 billion per year.
Americans Care Deeply About Climate Change but Don’t View It in a Political Context, Beacon Research, Environmental Voter Project
The authors highlight key findings from a national survey of 3,250 U.S. adults conducted via online panel July 6 – 14, 2025. Using a split-sample approach where groups of approximately 650 respondents were each asked about a single societal issue, the survey attempts to gauge how Americans view particular issues in a “natural setting” before being primed to consider the topics within a political, social, or personal context. The data relating to climate change are particularly revealing in that they show Americans could be more concerned about climate change than is typically measured in political polls, and that climate’s lower political salience might be due to Americans not viewing climate change as a political issue, but rather as a series of personal and corporate failings that require individual-level solutions.
Analysis of US manure management and recommendations to mitigate associated greenhouse gas emissions, Badzmierowski et al., World Resources Institute
Manure management accounts for 1.3 percent of total US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which roughly 80 percent come from methane, primarily from wet storage systems like lagoons, deep pits, and slurry tanks on dairy and swine farms. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that 85 percent of US manure management emissions come from dairy and swine farms. The authors’ estimate for dairy and swine manure management emissions is 40 percent higher, suggesting that manure management contributes to at least 1.6 percent of total US gross GHG emissions. Efforts to mitigate methane emissions focus mainly on biogas digesters, but digesters are less effective than commonly estimated, expensive per ton of mitigation, and mainly feasible for large farms. Advanced forms of solid separation, acidification, cover and flare, and aeration are promising alternatives for reducing methane emissions. The authors estimate these methods could cost between US$3.3 and $35 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) of methane abated for dairy operations and between $3.7 and $190 for swine operations.
State of the Climate 2024, Blunden, J. and J. Reagan, Eds, American Meteorological Society
This is the 35th issue of the annual assessment now known as State of the Climate. Its authors document the status and trajectory of many components of the climate system. However, as a series, the report also provides data to document the status and trajectory of our capacity and commitment to observe the climate system.
State of the Market Report for PJM. January through June, Monitoring Analytics
The authors assess the competitiveness of the markets managed by PJM in the first six months of 2025, including market structure, participant behavior and market performance. For each PJM market, the market structure is evaluated as competitive or not competitive, and participant behavior is evaluated as competitive or not competitive. Most importantly, the outcome of each market, market performance, is evaluated as competitive or not competitive. The authors also evaluated the market design for each market. The market design serves as the vehicle for translating participant behavior within the market structure into market performance. The authors evaluate the effectiveness of the market design of each PJM market in providing market performance consistent with competitive results.
Frackalachia Update 2025. Data Centers & LNG Replace Petrochemicals & Hydrogen as the Natural Gas Boom’s Shiny Objects That are Destined to Disappoint, Sean O’Leary, Ohio River Valley Institute
The race to expand Appalachian natural gas production in anticipation of new power demand for AI data centers and increased export capacity of liquified natural gas (LNG) is unlikely to generate long-term job growth or local prosperity. Since the dawn of the Appalachian fracking boom in 2008, the 30 largest gas-producing counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia have logged robust growth in economic output, but concerning declines in key measures of economic wellbeing; jobs have fallen by 1% despite 14% growth nationally; population has dropped by 3% and the number of employed persons has fallen by 4% while the nation’s population grew by 10%; and income has grown at just three-quarters the rate of national growth.
The Solar Opportunity, Kim et al., Columbia Business School
Solar can abate 5.5 to 10 gigatons (Gt) of CO2e by 2050 in select subsectors, including 24% to 43% of power and heat, depending on the transition scenario. Solar PV prices dropped ~99.8% since 1975, driven by economies of scale known as Swanson’s law, in which each doubling of installed capacity has led to an average price drop of ~20%. This was initially caused by the improvement of module efficiency; after 2001, economies of scale became a significant driver of cost reduction. Solar electricity generation reached ~1,600 terawatt-hours (TWh) of global capacity in 2023 with 23% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2023, exceeding growth expectations at every stage.
The Handful of Laggard Polluters Benefiting From Congress’s Elimination of the Methane Waste Fee, Big Gas Polluters
New analysis estimates the decade-long delay of the methane Waste Emissions Charge will cost the U.S. government nearly $1 billion in lost revenue in 2026 alone. However, more than half of that lost revenue benefits just 10 oil and gas companies, and by far the top beneficiaries are ConocoPhillips, Caerus Oil & Gas, Diversified Energy, Hilcorp Energy, and BKV Corporation. Even worse, this pollution bailout is being handed to some of America’s most profitable corporations. The authors find that more than 80% of the projected fees would have been paid by companies with over $100 million in production revenues in 2023, and nationally, the projected fees would have made up just 0.2% of total production revenues of reporting companies. Estimating based on the most recent reported emissions data, the authors project that methane pollution fees would have totaled $582 million for 2024, $776 million for 2025, and $971 million for 2026. Instead, this delay effectively greenlights over an estimated 640,000 metric tons of excess methane emissions annually, with the equivalent climate impact of operating 14 coal power plants a year, or driving 13 million passenger cars.
2025 ERO Reliability Risk Priorities Report, North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The authors primary objectives are to identify key risks to the Bulk Power System that merit attention and to recommend mitigating actions that align with those risks; it differs from other North American Electric Reliability Corporation reports in that it provides industry with strategic direction to plan for imminent risks and their mitigation. The authors identify and discuss five critical risk profiles including grid transformation, resilience to extreme events, critical infrastructure interdependencies, security, and energy policy.
The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet, Niklas Swanström, Institute for Security and Development Policy
The expansion of the Tibet Military Region represents a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and environmental preservation, creating complex challenges for both regional security and global climate patterns. This policy brief focuses on the larger environmental impact of Chinese militarization in Tibet, acknowledging limitations in assessing effects on local communities due to restricted access for independent researchers, but also the lack of reporting on the Chinese attempts to counter the climate impact. Current approaches to military development in Tibet are creating environmental changes that extend far beyond the immediate footprint of military activities. These changes threaten not only local ecosystems but regional climate stability and water security for hundreds of millions of people downstream. Addressing these challenges will require fundamental reconsideration of how military infrastructure is designed, constructed, and operated in this uniquely sensitive environment.
Climate risk and bank lending in South Africa, Chiappini et al., South African Reserve Bank
The authors investigate whether physical risk and transition risk factors affect South African bank lending behavior. Results of baseline analysis suggest that physical climate risk negatively affects South African bank lending behavior. Similarly, the authors found consistent results when considering climate transition risk proxied by the adoption of South Africa’s carbon tax in 2019. Finally, they found that the physical climate risk effect is stronger for commercial banks and tends to assume a non-linear U-shape effect. The research provides one of the first empirical assessments of climate risk effects on the South African banking industry and includes useful suggestions for practitioners, policymakers and regulators.
The Energy Wallet. U.S. and State-Level Household Energy Expenditures, Past, Present, and Future, EPRI
Direct household expenditures on energy—including electricity, gas and other heating fuels, amortized residential solar systems, and retail purchases of gasoline and public EV charging—are a key measure of energy affordability. To distinguish total expenditures across fuels from electricity bills and account for fuel-switching opportunities, the authors refer to this metric as a household’s Energy Wallet. The authors present a straightforward calculation of the Energy Wallet metric describing total direct energy expenditures by households and how it evolves over time, in particular as a result of electrification trends. Additional follow-on analysis will leverage EPRI’s modeling tools to explore electrification trade-offs and provide a more detailed accounting of non-energy costs of end-use technologies, both in aggregate and at the level of individual representative households; economy-wide energy service costs including non-household energy purchases (which are embedded in household purchases of many goods and services, such as air travel); and distributional implications of household energy costs for affordability.
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