Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2025
Posted on 25 September 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Changes Observed in Cloud-Top Heights by MISR From 2002 to 2021, Davies & Moroney, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
We analyzed cloud heights measured by the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer on the Terra satellite from 1 April 2002–31 March 2021. Throughout these 19 years, the equatorial crossing time of Terra’s orbit varied by less than 1 min from its mean value. This variation created a homogeneous time series of deseasonalized and deregionalized height anomalies unaffected by sun-glint position changes. We analyzed the changes in effective cloud height (i.e., the integral of cloud occurrence weighted by cloud-top height) and the influence of all altitudes, from the surface to 20 km, on the effective height. We show that cloud fractions tended to decrease at low altitudes, especially in the tropics, and to increase at high altitudes for most latitudes. The globally effective height has very likely risen, at an average rate of about 1 m/yr. The rise was most significant at high latitudes, reaching 5 ± 1 m/yr between 45°N and 65°N. Tropical high clouds have risen, but this was offset by a reduction in tropical low clouds, resulting in an insignificant change in tropical effective height. The increase in effective height typically reduces the outgoing longwave radiation, thereby augmenting the cloud greenhouse effect. The observed height increase may be an adjustment to the radiative forcing of the stratosphere over 19 years that presumably causes changes in upper tropospheric stability, the tropopause, the Brewer-Dobson circulation, etc. If so, the observed height increase should be included in modeling the effective radiative forcing.
A Storyline Climate-Change Attribution Study of a High-Impact Hailstorm in Switzerland, Trapp et al., Geophysical Research Letters
We employed a “storyline” approach to explore possible anthropogenic climate change influences on the extreme hail event in Switzerland on 28 June 2021. An ensemble of factual WRF simulations with randomly perturbed initial and boundary conditions was compared to an ensemble of counter-factual simulations in which a mean climate change signal was removed from the model conditions. Using data from six GCMs, this signal was computed using differences between data averaged over current-day and pre-industrial time intervals. Relative to counter-factual simulations, factual simulations exhibited overall more hail, particularly for diameters ≥3 cm. This is consistent with increased CAPE but minimal changes in melting depth over this region in the current day. We quantified the fraction of attributable risk and concluded that the geographical areas covered by hail of diameters ≥3 and 5 cm appear to have been increased by the meteorological changes attributable to climate change.
Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under climate change, Qiu et al., Nature
Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change 1–3. However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke, and health outcomes remains highly uncertain, due to the difficulty of modeling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the US due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM2.5, and empirically estimate smoke PM2.5-mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the US. We project that smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% CI: 34,930 – 98,430) per year by 2050 under a high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) – a 73% increase relative to estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM2.5 could reach 1.9 million between 2026-2055. We find evidence for mortality impacts of smoke PM2.5 that last up to three years after exposure. When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the US 4,5. Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the US.
Do Climate Models Support Claims of Volcanic Global Catastrophes?, McGraw & Polvani Polvani, Geophysical Research Letter
Climate models have been claimed to support the popular belief that large volcanic eruptions greatly imperil human populations worldwide. These models provide estimates of historical post-eruption climates where observations and paleorecords are lacking. However, as we show, simulations of the last millennium’s largest eruptions broadly disagree on resulting climates and typically produce more extreme outcomes than the moderate cooling and ordinary precipitation conditions recorded in tree rings. We demonstrate that strong cooling greatly strengthens the post-eruption precipitation anomalies in simulations. Conversely, simulations with paleoproxy-consistent volcanic surface cooling show post-eruption precipitation to be unexceptional at most locations. Climate models hence do not substantiate the claims that intense eruption-induced wet and dry anomalies have caused widespread historical catastrophes. We suggest that future assessments of global volcanic risk focus on impacts of moderate cooling and on equatorial Africa and South America, which evidence the only regional precipitation responses that are robust across simulations.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, McGlade et al., The International Energy Agency
Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The authors – using their analysis of the production records of around 15,000 oil and gas fields around the world – explore the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. They also provide regional insights.
Paying for Climate Chaos: U.S. Federal Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Production, Rees et al., Oil Change International
The authors reveals the scope of federal government subsidies for fossil fuel production. The federal government currently hands the fossil fuel industry an estimated $34.8 billion annually, further enriching Big Oil and Gas CEOs, shareholders, and investors.
Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate, Health, and Welfare, Committee on Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and U.S. Climate: Evidence and Impacts, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The report’s authoring committee found that EPA’s 2009 finding that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases adversely affect human health and welfare was accurate, has stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence. Today, many of EPA’s conclusions are further supported by longer observational records and multiple new lines of evidence. Moreover, research has uncovered additional risks that were not apparent in 2009.
119 articles in 48 journals by 744 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes Observed in Cloud-Top Heights by MISR From 2002 to 2021, Davies & Moroney, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044629
Intensifying Climatic Effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole Exaggerates Australia Bushfires Risk, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043936
Quantifying Cloud and Sea Ice Impacts on Solar Radiation Absorption Over the Arctic Ocean, Jin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117652
Observations of climate change, effects
A Storyline Climate-Change Attribution Study of a High-Impact Hailstorm in Switzerland, Trapp et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117142
Enhanced Wintertime Surface Heat Flux Feedback in the North Pacific Over Six Recent Decades, Tong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116861
Increased Precipitation Variability at Multi-timescales in China since the 1960s, Mo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100808
Intensifying Climatic Effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole Exaggerates Australia Bushfires Risk, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043936
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A climate data record of atmospheric moisture and sea surface temperature from satellite observations, Fu et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-608
A Review of 25 Annual Forecasts of Global Mean Surface Temperature Including the Record Warm Years 2023 and 2024, Folland et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117308
Mapping the Demand, Development, and Delivery of Climate Services in the Greater Horn of Africa, Venning et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70020
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Enhanced Trans-Seasonal ENSO Impact on East Asian-Western Pacific Climate in Warmer Future: An Emergent Constraint From Multi-Large Ensembles, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116648
The historical representation and near-future (2050) projections of the Coral Sea current system in CMIP6 HighResMIP, Schlaefer et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-2001-2025
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Hectometric urban climate modelling over a tropical city, Patel et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.5075
Models translate lake mud into useful climate variables, Topness, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00733-3
Reduction of the uncertainty of flood projection under a future climate by focusing on similarities among multiple SSP-RCP scenarios, Kimura et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-16327-4
The Role of Horizontal Resolution in Modeling Irrigation Effects With a Coupled Regional Climate Model System Up To Convection-Permitting Scale, Pop et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd043227
Cryosphere & climate change
Asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions, WEI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.003
Atmospheric River Impacts on the Greenland Ice Sheet Through the Last Interglacial, Schnaubelt et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025av001653
Delayed formation of Arctic snow cover in response to wildland fires in a warming climate, Qing et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02443-6
Expansion of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in Northeast China during 1989–2020, Liang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.007
Snow depth derived from Sentinel-1 compared to in situ observations in northern Finland, Lemos & Riihelä Riihelä Riihelä Riihelä, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-3939-2025
Sea level & climate change
Advancing Global Hindcast of Extreme Sea Levels: Insights from a 65-Year Study, Wang & Bernier, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100805
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Atmospheric River Impacts on the Greenland Ice Sheet Through the Last Interglacial, Schnaubelt et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025av001653
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Adapted Yet at Risk: The Paradox of Thermotolerant Species in a Warming World, Pallarés et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70500
Arid and tropical forests face highest drought vulnerability in the Northern Hemisphere, Su et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126415
Borealisation of Plant Communities in the Arctic Is Driven by Boreal-Tundra Species, García Criado et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70209
Bridging conservation gaps under climate change at multiple scales to protect 30% of Earth’s surface by 2030, Wu et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70054
Climate and microbial community composition drive shifts in ecosystem function along three parallel elevational gradients, Shen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07980
Climate-Driven Variability in Flowering Phenology Changes Across Subtropical Mountains: Traits, Elevation Shifts, and Biogeographic Patterns, Zu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70516
Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2501844122
Designing a Climate Change Resilient Landscape Connectivity Network From a Multi-Species Perspective, Bedson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71956
Earlier onset of phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Bight of the North Sea in response to climate variability, Liu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107570
Effect of primate protection on threatened and endemic vertebrates, plants, ecosystem services, and future climate refugia, Yang et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70019
Effects of Niche Marginality on Hotter-Drought Tree Mortality in Angiosperms and Gymnosperms, Batllori et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70128
Fighting Through the Heat: How Male Aggression Influences Demography Under Recurrent Heatwaves, Porwal et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72034
Grassland Restoration Drives Strong Multitrophic Biodiversity Recovery, but Climate Extremes Jeopardize Drought-Sensitive Species, Prangel et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70496
Growth of European beech across altitudinal and climatic gradients: Experiences from Slovenia, Bon?ina et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110806
Higher Sensitivity of Deep Soil Root Productivity to Precipitation Changes, Huo et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70121
How biodiversity conservation adapts to climate change: from a cross-spatial scale framework, Mengzhi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1646318
Late 21st-Century Climate and Land Use Driven Loss of Plant Diversity in African Mountains, Vidal Junior et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70492
Leaf Trait Divergence and Elevational Adaptation in Endangered Fagus hayatae: Conservation Insights for an East Asian Paleoendemic, Pan et al., 10.22541/au.174904057.73603001/v1
Long-Term Cambial Phenology Reveals Diverging Growth Responses of Two Tree Species in a Mixed Forest Under Climate Change, Almagro et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70503
Pacific Northwest birds have shifted their abundances upslope in response to 30 years of warming temperatures, Freeman et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70193
Population dynamics of the endangered salt creek tiger beetle Ellipsoptera nevadica lincolniana (Casey, 1916) (Coleoptera: Cicindelidae) are sensitive to temperature and precipitation during the egg stage, Merwin et al., Journal of Insect Conservation Open Access 10.1007/s10841-025-00714-3
Rapid riparian ecosystem decline in Rocky Mountain National Park, Cooper et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70053
Relative enrichment of ammonium and its impacts on open-ocean phytoplankton community composition under a high-emissions scenario, Buchanan et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-4865-2025
Site and environmental legacies shape the growth–climate response of silver fir along a climatic and elevational gradient in Austria, Garamszegi et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126384
Valve gaping behavior of bivalves under compound marine heatwaves and acidification extremes, Xu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107557
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Arctic Soil C and N Cycling Are Linked With Microbial Adaptations During Drought, Thomsen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70502
Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming, Bao et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adt8366
Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Historical Carbon Sink across Biomes, Deepak et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2552952
Increase in carbon sink in a protected tropical seasonal rainforest in southwestern China over 20 years, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110851
Methane ebullition as the dominant pathway for carbon sea-air exchange in coastal, shallow water habitats of the Baltic Sea, Bisander et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-4779-2025
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Substantial forest soil carbon accrual from absorptive fine roots over decadal timescales, Ma et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01790-5
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A machine learning framework for modeling and upscaling mangrove carbon productivity (ML-MCP), Alsafadi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110821
Challenges and opportunities in scaling enhanced weathering for carbon dioxide removal, Beerling et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00713-7
Enhanced Rock Weathering Promotes Soil Organic Carbon Accumulation: A Global Meta-Analysis Based on Experimental Evidence, Xu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70483
Nearshore Macroalgae Cultivation for Carbon Sequestration by Biomass Harvesting: Evaluating Potential and Impacts With an Earth System Model, Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116774
Quantifying potential carbon dioxide removal via enhanced weathering using porewater from a field trial in Scotland, McBride et al., Open Access 10.31223/x5nx5h
Upstream data need to prove soil carbon as a climate solution, Bradford et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02429-4
What regional agricultural actors want to know about carbon dioxide removal in Northern Germany, El Zohbi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1627432
Decarbonization
Climate Change Influence on Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production and Its Associated Drivers in CMIP6 Ensemble Projections, Adigun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042971
Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions, Hanig et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2420609122
Operational design of off-river Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES): An alternative to conventional river-based PHES, Diyono et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101754
Sustainable ethanol production: CO2 emission analysis and feedstock strategies through life cycle assessment, Kumar & Sinha, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101775
Sustainable mobility in Italian regions. May private cars be replaced by mass transport means?, Agovino et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114862
Utilization of a solar PV mini-grid powered cold storage to reduce fishery spoilage – A Tanzanian case, Carlsson et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101778
Aerosols
Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China, Gao et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3399
Climate change communications & cognition
Beyond the CCCM – The Conditions Facilitating the Swedish Climate Change Reactionary Movement, Vowles & Ekberg, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2560392
Citizen concerns about climate change impact and perception of planned retreat in Swedish waterfront municipalities, Bendz et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100750
Leveraging Artificial Intelligence To Support Pediatric Mental Health in the Context of Climate Change: Educational Strategies for Healthcare Providers, Patrick & Rust, Current Pediatrics Reports Open Access 10.1007/s40124-025-00361-x
The promise and limitations of using GenAI to reduce climate scepticism, Hornsey et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02425-8
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Active Restoration of Carbon Poor Degraded Grassland Accelerated Subsoil Carbon Accumulation and Turnover, Wu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006021
Assessing the feasibility of the socioeconomic benefits of Colophospermum mopane under climate change in north-central Namibia, Nikodemus et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1610409
Climate change raises costs for European forestry, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02409-8
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Periodic cropping of pasture for summer-grazed turnips leads to substantial carbon loss, Wall et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110803
Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change, Mohr et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9
Warming enhances productivity despite exacerbated water and nutrient deficits in wild blueberry, a traditionally managed temperate crop, Pahadi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110820
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Storyline Climate-Change Attribution Study of a High-Impact Hailstorm in Switzerland, Trapp et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117142
Enhanced Wintertime Surface Heat Flux Feedback in the North Pacific Over Six Recent Decades, Tong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116861
Increased Precipitation Variability at Multi-timescales in China since the 1960s, Mo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100808
Intensifying Climatic Effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole Exaggerates Australia Bushfires Risk, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043936
Growing Imbalance Between Supply and Demand for Flood Regulation Service in the Asian Water Tower and Its Downstream Region, Li et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006338
Increased Precipitation Variability at Multi-timescales in China since the 1960s, Mo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100808
Climate change economics
Exploring the link between Chinese household income and carbon emissions from 1994 to 2018: a partially closed input-output model approach, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1645056
Investigating donor fulfillment in global climate finance: the role of EU commitment, Nor, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1629509
The resource hypothesis revisited: Analysing the OECD experience in energy sustainability, Ketchoua & Wirajing, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114830
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Analysis of Barriers to South Africa’s Energy Transition: Perspectives from industry experts, Molepo et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101777
Does pluralistic collaborative governance between governmental and social actors promote urban carbon emission reduction? Evidence from 107 cities of China, Li et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102608
Exploring the link between Chinese household income and carbon emissions from 1994 to 2018: a partially closed input-output model approach, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1645056
Implementing minimum energy performance requirements ‘from the middle’: shifting levels of agency and capacity of housing developers in Sweden, van der Leer et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114901
Integrated analysis of the market diffusion of battery electric passenger cars and motorcycles in emerging markets: An agent-based modeling approach, Nugroho et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101772
Legal regulation of China’s carbon emissions trading market, Yu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1604038
Reconciling the right to develop with leaving fossil fuels underground in the Global South, Heras et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104207
The impact of scientific controversies on standards and methodologies in the voluntary blue carbon market, Delamarre et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104179
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Breaking the cycle of underinvestment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure, Fuso Nerini et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01868-9
Citizen concerns about climate change impact and perception of planned retreat in Swedish waterfront municipalities, Bendz et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100750
Global coastal human settlement retreat driven by vulnerability to coastal climate hazards, Xu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02435-6
Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones Over Vanuatu: A Case for Informing Disaster Planning and Adaptation Strategies, Sharma et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70108
Influencing climate change adaptation in authoritarian states: a deliberative systems analysis in Vietnam, Conway-Lamb, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2557058
Modelling the efficiency of Nature-based Solutions to decrease extreme heat in dense urban areas in Vienna at micro- to city-scale, Žuvela-Aloise et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102580
Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation, Pederick et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054
Private sector investments in climate change adaptation, Filatova et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02423-w
Socio-Economic Risk of Rising Compound Precipitation-Wind Extremes in San Francisco Bay Area, Kumar et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70120
The Evolving Concept of the Anthropocene: A Reply to Zalasiewicz et al., Edgeworth et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006882
Twenty years of city climate collaboration, Armarego-Marriott, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02447-2
Urban climate justice and migrant communities: factors of climate vulnerabilities of the Syrian population in Istanbul, Güne? Yerlikaya & Balaban, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2558179
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia, Childs et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2512350122
Evaluating effectiveness of impact-based heatwave warnings for perceptions and risk-mitigating behaviors: Survey studies in South Korea, Choi et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100733
Global warming amplifies wildfire health burden and reshapes inequality, Zhao et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09612-9
Leveraging Artificial Intelligence To Support Pediatric Mental Health in the Context of Climate Change: Educational Strategies for Healthcare Providers, Patrick & Rust, Current Pediatrics Reports Open Access 10.1007/s40124-025-00361-x
Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under climate change, Qiu et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w
Climate change impacts on human culture
Does pluralistic collaborative governance between governmental and social actors promote urban carbon emission reduction? Evidence from 107 cities of China, Li et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102608
Other
Do Climate Models Support Claims of Volcanic Global Catastrophes?, McGraw & Polvani Polvani, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117611
Expert knowledge and institutional interplay: Exploring the epistemic linkages of the IPCC, IPBES, WCRP, and Future Earth, Mäkinen-Rostedt et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104181
Exploring the Climatic Effects of Anthropogenic Heat Release Due To Energy Consumption in Southwest China in Boreal Summer Using VR-CESM2, Jiang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd043188
Reply to Edgeworth et al. (2024): The Anthropocene Is a Time Interval, and More Besides, Zalasiewicz et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005612
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate extremes, unequal burdens, Dinivitzer, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00731-5
Emerging risks along Arctic coastlines, Thyrring, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02441-8
Future of climate–city research, Editorial , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02451-6
Who moves under climate stress, Xue, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-025-00732-4
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment, Austrailian Climate Service, Government of Australia
Australia has a long history of resilience and innovation in the face of challenging climate conditions. As climate patterns shift, the country is uniquely positioned to tackle these head on drawing on diverse landscapes, strong communities and resourceful spirit. By assessing climate risks, understanding their implications, and taking informed actions, we strengthen our ability to adapt and thrive in a changing world. Having a detailed understanding of the challenges we face is a proactive first step that allows Australia to prioritize and innovate areas where action is needed most. It enables us to turn uncertainty into opportunity – ensuring that we have the chance not just to react to change but shape a resilient future for our communities, the environment and the economy.
Paying for Climate Chaos: U.S. Federal Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Production, Rees et al., Oil Change International
The authors reveals the scope of federal government subsidies for fossil fuel production. The federal government currently hands the fossil fuel industry an estimated $34.8 billion annually, further enriching Big Oil and Gas CEOs, shareholders, and investors.
Military spending rises and greenhouse gas emissions, Stuart Parkinson, Scientists for Global Responsibility
With military spending climbing rapidly around the world, the author assesses the results of 11 studies which have tried to estimate how such spending rises will affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Th author found that a standardized spending rise of $100 billion will lead to an increase in the military carbon footprint of approximately 32 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2 e). However, the uncertainty in that figure is high.
The Electrotech Revolution The shape of things to come, Walter et al., Ember
The authors examine the energy system from a variety of different angles. They divide the energy system into two main parts – electricity generation and energy use. The world is split into four key groups – mature economies, China, emerging markets and petroregions. The analysis considers marginal change as well as system size, considering three key drivers of change – supply from renewables, demand from electrification and new technologies to connect the two.
The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, McGlade et al., The International Energy Agency
Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The authors – using their analysis of the production records of around 15,000 oil and gas fields around the world – explore the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. They also provide regional insights.
How Companies Are Tackling the Climate Challenge—and Creating Value, Boston Consulting Group
Without question, external reporting and target setting has slowed. In 2025, only 7% of companies reported emissions comprehensively across Scopes 1, 2, and 3—down from 9% in 2024 and 10% in 2023. Similarly, the number of companies setting targets to reduce emissions across all scopes decreased three percentage points year-over-year since the high of 19% in 2023. Only 12% of respondents comprehensively measure climate-related physical and transition risks. According to the survey, global corporations in Japan, China, and the UK are leading in reporting emissions, target setting, and measuring climate risk.?This is the second year in a row China is in the top three. Internally, however, companies are still gaining momentum. Over the next five years, companies plan to increase their investments in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience by dedicating an additional 16% of their capital expenditure budget to sustainability, which amounts to an increase of $69 million per company. Additionally, approximately 70% of companies have maintained or increased their overall investment in sustainability, with the largest investment increases expected from the energy, construction, technology, health care, and industrial goods sectors.
Cradle to Grave. The Health Toll of Fossil Fuels and the Imperative for a Just Transition, Shweta Narayan and Jen Kuhl, Global Climate and Health Alliance
Fossil fuels negatively impact health at every stage of their life cycle – from extraction and refining, through transport and combustion, to the legacy of abandoned sites Fossil fuel pollution affects every stage of life, from fetal development to old age. Harms include low birth weight, asthma, cancers, heart disease, dementia, and premature death. Toxins from fossil fuels can harm every part of our body – including our immune system, reproductive system, brain and nervous system, heart, lungs, kidneys, blood and bone marrow. Chemicals like lead, mercury, and PFAS (“forever chemicals”) persist in soil, water, and the food chain, intensifying with each exposure (biomagnification). Fossil fuel harms impact us all. Communities already facing disadvantage, including indigenous peoples, racial minorities, and low-income groups, bear the heaviest burden, often in “sacrifice zones” near polluting infrastructure. Beyond direct health harms, fossil fuel operations drive displacement, inequality, and mental health crises. Global subsidies continue to prop up the industry, while societies absorb the health and environmental costs.
Electricity Grid Impacts of Rising Demand from Data Centers and Cryptocurrency Mining Operations, Wade e tal., The Scott Institute for Energy Innovation at Carnegie Mellon University and North Carolina State University
New modeling from the authors shows that data center and cryptocurrency mining growth through 2030 could increase average U.S. electricity generation costs by 8% and greenhouse gas emissions from power generation by 30%. Absent policy action, this increase in demand for electricity generation could lead to dramatically higher electricity bills for consumers and undermine the nation’s clean energy goals. For example, capacity market prices in the nation’s largest grid operator (PJM) exploded in December 2024, from $30 to $270 per megawatt-day (MW-day), a ninefold rise that will increase bills for 67 million customers across 13 states. Traditional utility planning assumes predictable 1%-2% annual demand growth over decades, but data centers are driving regional growth rates of 20%-30% annually. This mismatch between conventional planning timelines and demand growth has exposed limitations in capacity planning practices and increased short-run electricity generation costs, with some markets heavily utilizing older and more costly fossil-fuel generators in the short run. Recent model results show that rapid data center demand growth increases generation from aging and expensive coal-fired power generators. In contrast, Texas utilizes more wind generation through targeted transmission investments. These contrasting outcomes underscore that data center growth will drive different regional outcomes.
Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate, Health, and Welfare, Committee on Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and U.S. Climate: Evidence and Impacts, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The report’s authoring committee found that EPA’s 2009 finding that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases adversely affect human health and welfare was accurate, has stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence. Today, many of EPA’s conclusions are further supported by longer observational records and multiple new lines of evidence. Moreover, research has uncovered additional risks that were not apparent in 2009.
The Sustainability Trends Report 2025, Gillis et al., Generation Investment Management
The opponents of the energy transition can slow it down, but the authors do not believe they can stop it. The progress of solar energy is astonishing. The improvements in batteries are so dizzying that sweeping technological change is becoming possible. Electric cars are only the most visible result. Entire American and Australian states are getting significant amounts of power from batteries that stored sunshine earlier in the day. Just a decade ago, batteries simply did not exist on this scale. In short, we are on the road to a better future. It is a bumpy, winding road, and lately we have discovered potholes we did not know were there — big ones. But in so many ways, we are still going in the right direction.
Power Rewired: The New Map of Energy and Geopolitics, Kapnick et al., JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics and JP Morgan Climate Advisory
Nations’ economic futures hinge on how they play the natural resources hand they have been dealt—via policy, investment, and alliances—amid AI-driven demand spikes, conflict shocks, and access to capital. In this era, seeking energy resiliency, if not dominance, is a strategic imperative. Critical minerals and technological know-how are increasingly important tools of geopolitical leverage that are shaping trade deals, peace talks, and strategic alliances. Companies—whether they are energy producers or energy consumers, whether they are regional or global—need to incorporate the realities of this new age into their business plans. The global energy order is splintering into alliances defined as much by cables, pipes, and patents as by ideology. Rising “grid diplomacy” and cross-border energy links are binding neighbors closer together—creating both resilience and shared vulnerabilities. India, China, Brazil, and others are shaping new energy alliances and setting their own standards based on competitive advantages in natural resources, energy self-sufficiency shifts away from fossil fuels, and technological exports. Strategic energy independence actions are strengthening to reduce geopolitical exposure to former trade partners.
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